[情報] St. Louis Cardinals Top 5
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St. Louis Cardinals Top 5
No. Player Pos. Age Lvl
1 Colby Rasmus CF 22.2 AAA
This time last year, Rasmus was jockeying with Jay Bruce for the rights to
the No. 1 slot on our Top 150 prospect list. This year, things are different.
The No. 28 overall pick in the 2005 draft, Rasmus missed a good chunk of the
2008 season due to injury (knee, groin). When he wasn't hurt, he was
struggling, posting a .251/345/.396 vital in 386 Triple-A plate appearances.
That said, Rasmus did have a .397 wOBA in Double-A as a 21-year-old a year
prior and has always displayed excellent plate discipline (12% walk rate or
higher in High-A, Double-A and Triple-A). He also projects as a solid
defensive center fielder. If he can stay healthy and regain some of his power
(.276 IsoP in '07 vs. .145 in '08), his stock could return to its '08
preseason form.
No. Player Pos. Age Lvl
2 Brett Wallace 3B 22.1 AA
Someone forgot to tell Wallace there's supposed to be a learning curve
between playing college ball and the professional ranks. Selected No. 13
overall in June's draft, Wallace went .337/.427/.530 in his first 234 plate
appearances, splitting time between Low-A and Double-A. The 6-foot-1,
245-pounder out of Arizona State then returned to the state where he played
collegiately to go .309/.381/.585 in 103 Arizona Fall League plate
appearances. Speed, however, will never be Wallace's ally. He's Billy Butler
slow, meaning he'll probably have a .290-.315 BABIP in the majors; he was at
.387 in the minors. While his glove at third base may raise questions, his
bat alone could be enough to earn him a trip to the big leagues by season's
end.
No. Player Pos. Age Lvl
3 Daryl Jones LF 21.3 AA
Jones wasn't much of a prospect entering the 2008 season. By the end of it,
he was on everyone's radar. The 5-foot-11, 180-pounder followed up a
lackluster 2007 campaign (.275 wOBA in 479 Low-A PA) with an impressive '08
showing (.383 wOBA in 503 PA between High-A, Double-A). A 2005 third-rounder,
Jones maintained a strong 10.9% walk ratio go along with his adequate power
display (.167 IsoP; .210 in 151 Double-A PA). He has a chance of becoming an
above-average corner outfielder.
No. Player Pos. Age Lvl
4 Lance Lynn RHP 21.4 A
If size really does matter, then Lynn's covered. Standing 6-foot-5 and
weighing in at 260 pounds, Lynn was a sandwich round selection (No. 39
overall) in June's draft. The hefty righty threw 26.2 innings between
Short-Season and Low-A, displaying good control (5.6% BB rate) and the
ability to strike hitters out (27.1% K rate). Lynn has good sink on his
fastball, but that didn't equate to ground balls last season (40% GB).
Although he doesn't bring dominating stuff with him to the hill, Lynn has the
kind of command necessary to be a middle-of-the-rotation-type starter.
No. Player Pos. Age Lvl
5 Chris Perez RHP 23.3 MLB
It looks like St. Louis' closer of the future is being given a chance to
become its closer of the present. After saving seven big league games in 11
tries last season, Perez will likely be the Cardinals' fulltime stopper in
2009. The 6-foot-4, 225-pounder can rack up the strikeouts; he had a 23.7%
strikeout rate in the bigs (41.2 IP) after putting up a 36.2% rate in
Triple-A (25.1 IP). He's had control problems, though, posting a walk rate of
11.4% or higher at each level as a professional.
Honorables:
Bryan Anderson (C)
Anderson has always had youth on his side. So while his .324 wOBA from a
season ago doesn't look too impressive, the fact that he was guiding a
pitching staff as one of the youngest players in Triple-A is. A 2005
fourth-rounder, Anderson showed solid on base ability last year (11.7% BB),
but very little power (.098 IsoP). If Anderson, who played the entirety of
the 2008 season as a 21-year-old, can develop a bit more power with age, he
could develop into a league-average catcher.
Richard Castillo (RHP)
Signed as an international free agent last February, Castillo has started his
professional career off on the right foot. A native of Venezuela, Castillo
showed strikeout potential (23.3%) while displaying solid control (7.4% BB
rate) in 95.0 innings between Low-A and High-A in 2008 -- as an 18-year-old
(he skipped rookie ball entirely). The 5-foot-11, 165-pound righty can throw
both his fastball and curveball for strikes, and will go to his curve
regardless of the count.
Jess Todd (RHP)
When you break down Todd's numbers, it's hard to look at them without
thinking middle-of-the-rotation starter. A 6-foot, 210-pound righty, Todd
showed decent strikeout (20.0%) and ground ball (53%) ability while
maintaining an impressive 5.9% walk rate in 103.0 Double-A innings. His
control dropped noticeably in Triple-A (11.5%), but that was in a very small
sample (22.2 IP). Todd's numbers could taper off a bit in 2009, though, as he
had a .247 BABIP in Double-A. It's possible Todd could find his way to St.
Louis by the end of the season, although he'll likely spend a the majority of
his 2009 campaign in Triple-A Memphis.
Jason Motte (RHP)
Motte is old by prospect standards. That doesn't mean you should overlook
him. A former catcher, Motte has only been pitching professionally for three
years. He was dominant in Triple-A last year, recording an overpowering 110
strikeouts versus 26 walks in just 66.2 innings (37.9% K, 9.0% BB). He then
went on to throw 11.0 spectacular September innings with the Cardinals (40.0%
K, 7.5% BB, 40 TBF)). With Perez and Motte, it looks like the end of the St.
Louis bullpen could be in good shape for years to come.
Pete Kozma (SS)
Kozma numbers from his first full professional season don't jump off the page
at you, but that doesn't mean there's anything wrong with them. The No. 18
overall pick in the 2007 draft, Kozma posted a solid .339 wOBA to go along
with a 10.4% walk rate in 434 Low-A plate appearances. He finished out the
season with a lackluster showing in a limited High-A sample (.195 wOBA in 94
PA). The 6-foot-1, 180-pounder is said to have surprising pop for someone his
size, but had a hard time showing it in 2008 (.103 IsoP). If he can develop
some power to go along with his on base ability and adequate defense, there's
a chance Kozma could become an above-average major league shortstop.
Jaime Garcia (LHP)
Garcia has always picked up a ton of ground balls. It's everything else he's
had trouble being consistent with. The lefty has posted a ground ball rate of
at least 55% at every level he's pitched, and finds himself in the 60+% range
more often than not. Garcia's strikeout rates, however, have been all over
the map, ranging from 16.0% to 28.3% -- the 28.3% came in Double-A last year,
before he fell back to 19.0% and 11.6% in Triple-A and the majors,
respectively. Additionally, his commond has gotten worse as he's ascended
through the minors; his walk rate was at 5.3% in Low-A and High-A, but
increased to 9.5% across three levels last season. In short, Garcia has the
potential to be a No. 3 starter, possibly even a No. 2. Whether he can learn
to manage his inconsistencies and live up to that potential, though, remains
to be seen. He'll miss much or all of the 2009 season as he recovers from
Tommy John surgery.
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