[翻譯] Trade winds blow in NL Central

看板Cardinals作者yi5849 (穎珊妮緹)時間9年前 (2015/07/24 21:51)推噓8(8推 0噓 0→)

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原文: http://goo.gl/X39JyI Trade winds blow in NL Central With the 30 major-league teams returning to the field Friday after pausing for the annual All-Star game rest stop, it's time for owners and general managers to make a realistic assessment of their postseason chances. 一年一度的明星賽假期過後，30支大聯盟球隊又要重新回到場上進行下半季的捉對廝殺，而球團老闆和總管也該是時候評估球隊打進季後賽的機會有多少了。 The addition of a second wild-card playoff ticket in each league keeps more teams in the chase for October. It also puts some owners and GMs in a delusional state of mind, seeing opportunities that really don't exist. 兩張外卡制的實施讓更多球隊有機會競逐季後賽，但也讓一些老闆和總管對於那不太存在的機會有些不太實際的妄想。 The baseball bosses look at the standings and find reasons to avoid reality. Baseball writers fuel the optimism by offering hopeful sentences such as this: "At the All-Star break, 16 teams were within six games of a playoff spot, and 27 lurked a mere 8.5 games out." 球團老闆們邊盯著排名，邊找些理由說服自己逃避現實。棒球作家們則藉由這樣看似充滿希望的分析來讓人們保持樂觀：「截至明星賽，有16支球隊距離季後賽只有6場勝差，更有27隊僅僅落後8.5場。」 It creates false hope. It's difficult for a competitor to disengage, but it's even worse to keep your team spinning in a cycle of mediocrity. The pain of rebuilding can be severe, but it's worth the long-term gain. 這樣的希望非常不切實際，要擺脫競爭對手的糾纏很困難沒錯，但讓球隊一直處在不上不下的窘境中更是糟糕，重建讓人感到煎熬，但長期下來是絕對值得的。 It makes more sense to offload pending free agents and untenable contracts and replenish your roster with younger, payroll-friendly talent that can lead the way to a better future. 賣掉即將進入市場待價而沽的準自由球員和清掉一些大合約，並補進一些便宜又充滿天份的年輕人才是通往美好未來的正確之途。 As the July 31 trade deadline draws closer, let's take a look at the teams in the National League Central. 在7/31交易大限逐漸逼近之際，我們就來一起看看國聯中區的球隊可能會有的動作吧。 For the contenders: what do they need to augment the roster? How aggressive will they be? 對於買家：他們需要什麼來補強陣容？他們應該要多積極？ As for the pretenders: are they attached to reality? 對於賣家：他們真的有考量到現實面嗎？ (僅節錄紅雀的部份) ST. LOUIS CARDINALS Record: 56-33, with the No. 1 win percentage (.629) in the MLB. Standings: 1st place, but now only 2.5 ahead of the Pirates after leading them by nine games on June 28. Playoff Odds: Division title, 72 pct. Playoffs, 98.3 pct. 聖路易紅雀隊 56勝33敗勝率.629 大聯盟排名第1 目前排在分區首位，但6/28時領先海盜的9場現在只剩下2.5場晉級季後賽機率：98.3% （分區冠軍72%） Problems: In their first 50 games played in April-May, the Cards averaged 4.2 runs, batted .268, had a .333 OBP and a .404 slugging percentage. But in their 39 games since the beginning of June, they're averaging 3.7 runs, batting .242, have a .310 OBP and a .368 SLG. That represents a loss of a half-run per game, and an OPS that's dropped by 58 points. Another issue is an increased strikeout rate, since June 1 the Cardinals have the seventh-worst K rate in the majors, with a strikeout every 4.6 plate appearances. Their batting average with runners in scoring position was .265 over the first two months, but it's only .242 since June 1. The injury absence of left fielder Matt Holliday is a factor in the offensive decline, but the problems run deeper than that. The production at first base has collapsed, with the Cardinals ranking 28th at the position in onbase percentage (.285) and 28th in slugging (.370.) Mark Reynolds and the other first basemen have combined for a 30 percent strikeout rate. The production in center field is low, with 25 RBIs and a poor .640 OPS. These factors and Matt Carpenter's lengthy slump have caused a rather dramatic downturn on offense. And it won't be automatically solved by Holliday's return (presumably Friday) from the DL. 隱憂：在四、五月的前50場比賽，紅雀平均打下4.2分，打擊三圍.268/.333/.404，但自六月後的39場比賽，他們的平均得分掉到3.7分，三圍剩下.242/.310/.368，每場比賽少得半分，OPS也掉了58個千分點。另一個問題是三振率的增加，自6/1以來紅雀每4.6打席就會被K 一次的被三振率是聯盟第七高。前兩個月的得點圈打擊率有.265，但6/1後剩下.242。左外野手Matt Holliday的因傷缺陣是打線熄火的主因，但問題可能不止於此，紅雀在一壘位置的輸出簡直是個悲劇，上壘率.285和長打率.370都排在倒數第三，Mark Reynolds和其他一壘手加起來的三振率更高達30％。中外野位置25分打點和.640 OPS的輸出也很貧弱。還有Matt Carpenter的大低潮更是影響打線甚鉅，而這樣的情況是不會因為Holliday的傷癒歸隊而自動變好的。 Buyer or Seller: If GM John Mozeliak isn't a buyer, there's going to be some unhappy Cardinals and protests from howling-mad fans. Mozeliak doesn't usually hide in July. Late last July he made one trade that didn't work (the acquisition of damaged starting pitcher Justin Masterson) and one that paid off in a big way: he deal with Boston that delivered starting pitcher John Lackey. The problem for Mozeliak is a thinned farm system that's relatively low on tradable commodities. 買家還賣家？如果總管John Mozeliak不打算當買家，大概會惹來很多憤怒紅雀迷的抗議。Mozeliak通常不會在七月的交易缺席，去年七月交易來的Justin Masterson沒有多大作用，而另一筆和紅襪盤來的先發投手John Lackey則是物超所值。但Mozeliak得面臨農場越來越貧脊的困境。 Most coveted Redbird: That would be starting-pitching prospect Alex Reyes, who recently moved up to the No. 17 spot on an updated Top 50 prospects list presented by ESPN's Keith Law. Other wish-list candidates would likely include starting pitchers Marco Gonzales, Rob Kaminsky and Jack Flaherty, hard-throwing reliever Sam Tuivailala, outfielders Stephen Piscotty, Anthony Garcia and Magneuris Sierra, infielder Jacob Wilson and shortstop Edmundo Sosa. 最有交易價值的球員？剛晉升新秀排行第17名的先發投手Alex Reyes。其他可能的人選還有先發投手Marco Gonzales、Rob Kaminsky和Jack Flaherty、速球派的後援投手Sam Tuivailala、外野手 Stephen Piscotty、Anthony Garcia和Magneuris Sierra、內野手Jacob Wilson和游擊手 Edmundo Sosa。 What the Cardinals need: Other than a jolt for their tired offense the Cardinals could use extra rotation depth in case Jaime Garcia breaks down, or if young starters Michael Wacha or Carlos Martinez show signs of fatigue as the innings accumulate. Gonzales has been a non-factor in the equation because of left-arm miseries. He's making headway on a return, and could help down the stretch. (Or perhaps not.) And even though the Cards expect setup reliever Jordan Walden to make it back from the DL in the near future, it might be wise to add another veteran reliever because of manager Mike Matheny's tendency to push Trevor Rosenthal and Kevin Siegrist. Oh, and fewer injuries would be nice. 紅雀需要什麼？除了補強近期有些疲軟的打線之外，紅雀也該增強輪值深度，以免Jaime Garcia報銷或是 Michael Wacha和Carlos Martinez兩位年輕投手有疲勞的現象。Gonzales因為左肩的傷勢一直幫不上忙，但他正為了歸隊努力，或許之後能有些幫助。另外雖然紅雀預估佈局投手Jordan Walden即將歸隊，因應Mike Matheny過去對Trevor Rosenthal和Kecvin Siegrist的使用程度，再多一位有經驗的牛棚人手會是個聰明的選擇。噢還有，少點傷兵會更好。 Tethered to reality? You bet. Mozeliak is an established pragmatist, and that's one of his best attributes. But Mozeliak isn't afraid to step out and make a risky move that causes considerable chirping within the baseball fraternity and the usual national-media bureaus. We saw that with the successful Lackey deal; at first Mozeliak was widely ripped for giving up young starting pitcher Joe Kelly. Well, the engaging Kelly was a media hit in Boston, but his wayward pitching led to a demotion to the minors. There was shock and dismay when Mozeliak signed shortstop Jhonny Peralta to a four-year, $53 million contract before the 2014 season. (That seems to have worked out OK.) Mozeliak struck again last winter when he bartered young starting pitchers Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins to Atlanta for right fielder Jason Heyward and Walden. Will Mozeliak put on his Mohatma bow tie and come out and play? That's one of the more intriguing questions looming as MLB's second half gets underway. 付諸現實的可能性？當然。Mozeliak是個毫無疑問的實用主義者，而這也是他幾個很好的特質之一，他並不會畏懼做一些大膽的交易，我們可以從Lackey那比成功的交易略知一二，一開始大家都很不能接受放棄年輕的先發投手Joe Kelly，結果Kelly現在在波士頓被打爆了，還被下放到小聯盟。當2014季前Mozeliak以四年5300萬簽下游擊手Jhonny Peralta時大家都很錯愕，結果看來不錯。Mozeliak去年冬天又把先發投手Shelby Miller和Tyrell Jenkins交易到勇士換來右外野手Jason Heyward和Walden。Mozeliak下半季又會怎麼出手絕對會讓人非常耐人尋味。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 114.24.59.15 ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Cardinals/M.1437745891.A.423.html ※ 編輯: yi5849 (114.24.59.15), 07/24/2015 21:54:33