[報導] BA Top30 Midseason Update
By Kyle Glaser on July 18, 2019
After missing the playoffs three straight years for the first time since
1997-99, the Cardinals went for broke in the offseason. They acquired Paul
Goldschmidt in a blockbuster trade with the D-backs, signed Andrew Miller,
extended Miles Mikolas and added Matt Wieters in spring training for
additional depth.
Even with those additions and a wave of reinforcements from a stout farm
system, the wins haven’t come. Down years, offensively, from Goldschmidt and
Matt Carpenter have weighed down the lineup, and the Cardinals find
themselves hovering around .500 heading into the trade deadline. They are
still in the thick of the playoff race in a tight NL Central and wild card
race, but at no point have they separated themselves and their offense
remains in the bottom third of the majors in scoring.
The Cardinals could very well ride it out and hope a second-half resurgence
from Goldschmidt and Carpenter will give the offense the boost they need to
go on a run, but after three straight seasons without October baseball, the
Cardinals are likely to be aggressive at the trade deadline.
The good news is they have both the top-end prospects and farm system depth
to add impact players, although with an aging lineup, keeping some of their
top-end young talent will be important for the coming years. The Cardinals
should be buyers as July 31 approaches, but a lot will depend on if their
offense can start to show signs of life within the next two weeks.
1. Dylan Carlson, OF
Carlson’s physical ability has caught up to his advanced baseball IQ and led
to a breakout season at Double-A Springfield. He has few weaknesses in his
well-rounded game and projects as a solid everyday regular at least.
2. Nolan Gorman, 3B
Gorman has cooled off considerably since his scorching start, but evaluators
still see a potential All-Star third baseman who hits .250-.260 with 25-30
home runs once he stops trying to lift everything and lets his natural power
play.
3. Elehuris Montero, 3B
Montero missed three weeks in April with a sprained wrist, is currently out
with a broken hamate bone and was visibly overmatched by Double-A competition
in the 25 games he was healthy this year. Most observers consider Montero’s
struggles a product of being rushed and still see the tools of a potential
everyday player.
4. Genesis Cabrera, LHP
Cabrera began the year as a starter in Triple-A before making his major
league debut and eventually moving to the bullpen, which has long been
expected. Whether he lives up to his closer potential will depend on if he
can harness the life on his 95-97 mph fastball and improve his control in
general.
5. Tommy Edman, 2B
Edman followed a stellar spring training by batting .305 with 23 extra-base
hits in 49 games at Triple-A to earn his major big league callup. While by no
means a physical specimen, Edman’s sneaky tools, advanced instincts and
underrated hitting ability have him in line for at least a utility role and
possibly more.
6. Andrew Knizner, C
Knizner continues to hit for average and earned his first big league callup
at the end of May. His defense continues to improve, with the ability to
better block balls in the dirt now a focal point of his development.
7. Ryan Helsley, RHP
Helsley’s fastball sat 98 mph and touched 102 mph in his explosive first
taste of the majors in April. He continues to show the traits of an impact,
late-inning reliever, but in June his troublesome right shoulder landed him
on the injured list for the second straight year.
8. Zack Thompson, LHP
Thompson fell to the 19th pick in the 2019 draft only because of an injury
history that includes elbow and shoulder issues. With four average or better
pitches and improving control, he has mid-rotation potential if he can stay
healthy.
9. Ivan Herrera, C
Herrera has handled the jump to full-season ball and impressed offensively at
low Class A Peoria. His defense, in particular his prohibitively long
throwing stroke, continues to need polish.
10. Lane Thomas, OF
Thomas made his big league debut in April and memorably homered in his first
career at-bat. His speed, defense and arm give him a solid foundation, but he
needs to cut down his swings and misses in the strike zone to be more than a
reserve.
11. Johan Oviedo, RHP
12. Junior Fernandez, RHP
13. Jhon Torres, OF
14. Jake Woodford, RHP
15. Julio Rodriguez, C
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16. Adolis Garcia, OF
17. Angel Rondon, RHP
18. Randy Arozarena, OF
19. Justin Williams, OF
20. Malcom Nunez, 3B
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21. Edgar Gonzalez, RHP
22. Tommy Parsons, RHP
23. Trejyn Fletcher, OF
24. Mateo Gil, SS
25. Seth Elledge, RHP
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26. Luken Baker, 1B
27. Griffin Roberts, RHP
28. Edmundo Sosa, SS
29. Austin Warner, LHP
30. Kramer Robertson, SS
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Rising
OF Dylan Carlson has turned his tools into performance in becoming one of the
minors’ top hitters this season. He ranks in the top 10 in the Double-A
Texas League in hits, runs, doubles, triples, home runs, RBIs, walks and OPS,
all at just 20 years old.
Previously penciled in as a future utilityman, 2B/SS Tommy Edman keeps
hitting enough to show he may be the heir to Kolten Wong as the Cardinals’
everyday second baseman.
C Julio Rodriguez’s offense has caught up to his defense and made him a
threat in all phases of the game, elevating his status from an organizational
catcher to a potential everyday backstop.
RHP Angel Rondon has gone 9-3, 2.81 with 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings
while rising to Double-A. His 94-95 mph fastball and hard slider play as a
starter and have a chance to tick up if he moves to the bullpen.
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Falling
3B Malcom Nunez hit .183 in 21 games at low Class A Peoria before being
demoted to extended spring training. Scouts noted a lack of athleticism,
wildly inconsistent defense and an undeveloped all-around game among their
concerns, even in the context of his background and youth.
SS Delvin Perez continues to lack the strength to impact the ball in any way
at the plate. The 2016 first-round pick is now seen as an org player by many
scouts. He is batting .266 with nine extra-base hits in 83 games at low Class
A Peoria.
2B Max Schrock made an effort to hit the ball in the air more this season,
but the result has been a 12 percent increase in his strikeout rate and a
.252/.350/.346 slash line in a repeat year at Triple-A.
OF/1B Leandro Cedeno has gotten prohibitively large and isn’t getting to his
power at low Class A Peoria. He has four home runs and a .364 slugging
percentage in in 65 games.
--
Hurting
3B Elehuris Montero (hamate) has been out since he broke his left hamate bone
on a swing on May 26. He is tentatively scheduled to return in mid- to late
July.
RHP Ryan Helsley (shoulder) missed two weeks in June with a right shoulder
impingement. It’s the second straight year he went on the injured list with
a shoulder issue.
OF Justin Williams (leg) missed a month with an unspecified lower-body injury
but returned in late June. He also missed the first month of the season
recovering from a fractured right hand after he punched a television in the
offseason.
LHP Steven Gingery (torn UCL) suffered a setback in spring training while
rehabbing from last year’s Tommy John surgery. He is currently on a throwing
program in Jupiter, Fla.
2B Max Schrock (oblique) missed most of June with unspecified back issues,
returned for a week and then strained his oblique running out a bunt and was
put back on the injured list on July 5.
--
Graduated
RHP Alex Reyes graduated from prospect eligibility with four relief
appearances but was sent back down to the minors after the first week of the
season. He had a 7.39 ERA at Triple-A Memphis with 24 walks in 28 innings
before going on the injured list on June 25 with a strained pectoral.
OF Tyler O’Neill has provided impact power with five doubles and five home
runs in 34 games with the Cardinals, but his swing-and-miss issues remain a
concern with 36 strikeouts in 90 plate appearances.
RHP Dakota Hudson is 8-4 with a rotation-best 3.48 ERA for the Cardinals. He
has a 2.78 ERA over his last 13 starts after logging a 5.63 ERA in his first
six appearances.
RHP Daniel Ponce de Leon has ably filled in both starting and relieving with
a 2.80 ERA in 35.1 innings.
RHP Giovanny Gallegos leads all Cardinals relievers with a 2.49 ERA and has
61 strikeouts against just seven walks in 43.1 innings this season.
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推
07/19 09:55,
5年前
, 1F
07/19 09:55, 1F
BP Mid50節錄：
14.) Nolan Gorman, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals
Why he’ll succeed: Gorman just turned 19 and he’s already flashed big power
in the not-particularly-friendly confines of the Midwest League. It’s
70-grade raw, with more projection left in his teenage frame. There’s going
to be swing-and-miss in his game, but he should hit enough to get the
prodigious power into games, and he’s athletic enough to stick at third base
for now. This sounds a lot like Austin Riley…
Why he might fail: The delta on Gorman is larger than any other bat in the
top 15. The swing-and-miss might eat too much into the offensive profile, and
while he’s a 19-year-old third baseman, he might be a 22-year-old first
baseman. That sounds a lot like Pedro Alvarez…
38.) Dylan Carlson, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
Why he’ll succeed: The Cardinals Devil Magic has conjured another potential
plus outfielder from its cauldron of mystery. Carlson always had first-round
tools, but didn’t have the performance to match. Nonetheless, St. Louis
pushed the 20-year-old to Double-A and he responded, flashing above-average
offensive tools and an overall balanced profile. He’s even playing mostly
center field too, because why not?
Why he might fail: Perhaps the Cards can use the same Harrison Bader serum to
make Carlson a good everyday center fielder, but it’s more likely he ends up
in a corner outfield spot, and by this point in our Midseason 50 blurbs, you
know what that means.
※ 編輯: TrRosenthal (59.124.81.40 臺灣), 07/19/2019 15:36:46
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