[分析] 轉錄 Chicago Bulls 2010-11 schedule analysis
http://tinyurl.com/35gto85 素人分析 隨意看看
The new schedule is up, and most of you have seen it already, at least those
who are concerned about analyzing schedules have. So what does the new
schedule bring this year?
The Bulls lead the league in back to backs with 23, or so I read elsewhere,
as I didn't manually go around and look at every schedule. This is a fairly
significant disadvantage as teams often perform quite poorly on back to
backs. What would be a great stat is for someone to come up with the number
of teams we play coming off of a back to back, especially with a travel day
inbetween.
October/November, as always, brings a tough start for the Bulls, but this
November road trip will be tougher than usual. The only light games on it
are Phoenix and Sacramento, and even those teams aren't likely complete push
overs. All in all, I'd say they're favored in 6 of those games (DET, NY GS,
WAS, @PHO, @SAC) while the underdog in 6 (OKC, @BOS, @SA, @DAL, @LAL, @DEN),
and a push in 3 (POR, DEN, @HOU).
Granted, Vegas probably wouldn't hire me as an odds maker, but Nov/Oct
strikes me as an opening which we hope to make it through at 50/50.
December isn't immediately a lot more friendly, and until I realized that
Cleveland now sucks, I was particularly worried. The first four games go
ORL, @BOS, HOU, OKC before catching a break with @CLE, then going to play
LAL. That's five more really tough games in the first six in December. If
the Bulls are within a game of break even here, you have to feel really good
about them this year.
Things then ease up considerably in December as we finish the month with MIN,
IND, @TOR, LAC, PHI, @WAS, @NY, @DET, MIL, NJ. That's a stretch of ten
games where we should take eight of them or so and be favored in all of
them. Finishing December, I'm hoping to be 18-13 which would put us on a 47
win pace through the year, but that pace would cover the most difficult
portion of the schedule. We'll mop up later.
January is where we can make some serious hay in terms of record. CLE, TOR,
@NJ, @PHI, BOS, DET, @CHA, @IND, MIA, @MEM, CHA, DAL, CLE, MIL, ORL, IND.
Of the 16 games, we should be favored in at least 12 of them. I'm hoping
for a 11-5 record for the month of January bringing us up to 29-18 or a 50.5
win pace.
February gives us the second big road trip, but overall isn't too
threatening. @LAC, @GS, @POR, @UTA, @NO, CHA, SA, @TOR, MIA, @MIL, @WAS.
As long as the Bulls prove they can perform on the road, they'll still be
favored in seven of the eleven games of the month. We'll aim for a 6-5
record though simply because the stretch is so road heavy with eight on the
road. That brings us up to 35-23 dropping us down to a 49.3 win pace on the
season.
Finally, over the final two months of the season, while the Bulls are
jockeying for their final playoff seeding position they have a reasonably
friendly stretch. @ATL, @ORL, NO, @CHA, ATL, UTA, WAS, @NJ, @IND, SAC,
@ATL, MEM, @MIL, PHI, @MIN, @DET, TOR, PHO, BOS, @CLE, @ORL, @NY, NJ.
Obviously with that many games, there are some tough games mixed in with the
easy ones and several games I consider neutral (Atlanta matchups and Utah),
which leaves us with up to three underdog games (2 against Orlando, one
against Boston) and 16 games where they're favored.
Expect the Bulls to finish the season on a tear, around 17-7 bringing us up
to 52 wins on the season and rolling into the playoffs with confidence.
As for random schedule notes that people will care about:
We play Miami three times rather than four which is good (IMO) and get two of
those matchups at home giving us a couple of marquee games to sell.
As mentioned earlier, we dominate the league in back to backs played which
isn't going to help much, but the team is built with a lot of depth so we
should be able to navigate that better than we have in the past.
All in all, schedule analysis is frequently relatively pointless. The
difficulty in schedule doesn't vary that much from team to team, and what
will really makes a difference in schedule difficulty is which teams you play
that have injuries and when your own injuries occur. If the Bulls stay
healthy, my 52 win guess here feels pretty reasonable though.
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