[外電] Is Derrick Rose A Legit MVP Candidat …
http://tinyurl.com/4ck7nlp 作者喜歡用數據分析 並作成圖表
By Rohan Cruyff
他分析了Rose得上場時間 得分比例 防守等等 把他
來跟其他檯面上 早就是MVP準候選人 或是曾經MVP得主相比
Derrick Rose is having a marvelous season for the Bulls. But is it an
MVP-caliber performance? We take a look at Rose's production compared to the
league's best.
Jan 18, 2011 - The player that wins the MVP is the player with the best
story. The award’s notoriously loose guidelines,* the various definitions of
the word "valuable," and the media’s insistence on neatly packaged, cohesive
tales of ascension and triumph conspire to make it so.
Sometimes those stories are boring: "LeBron James carries pathetic nobodies
to another 60-win season, MVP!" Sometimes those stories are born of boredom:
"What, Jordan again? Come on, let’s give it to the fat man!" And sometimes
those stories are patently untrue: "Kobe Bryant learned the true meaning of
unselfishness this year, MVP!" A lot -- personal accomplishment, team
situation, stats -- can go into the MVP tales that voters ultimately assess.
*In case you were wondering, the NBA actually provides voters no guidelines
whatsoever.
And Derrick Rose, by season’s end, will have one hell of a story. He
(allegedly) rejected the league’s biggest villain, LeBron James, over the
summer. He carried the team on his back when Carlos Boozer was out and his
team needed him. The Bulls, who barely eked 41 wins last year, are on pace to
reach that mark through just 60 games this season.
The story practically writes itself, and some have already started. It brings
us to the question of whether Rose really does have the legit chops to be in
the MVP conversation.
To provide any meaningful resolution, however, is to return to Square 1: what
is an MVP? If we go by the "story" standard, I’ll guarantee you right now
that Rose will be in the MVP conversation come April. The Bulls are going
nowhere; they’re legitimately among the Eastern elite.
I won’t claim to have any "better" definition of an MVP than you, your pet
rock or Rick Reilly. The NBA has no guidelines, so adjudging wrong and right
is inherently fallacious.
However, I would like to move past the concept of the MVP storyline. Sure,
Derrick Rose may have told LeBron to push off, but should that really push
him over, say, Dirk, who didn’t do that last summer? Yeah, Derrick Rose
coming into his own and the Bulls becoming "his" team is kind of cool. But
should we hold against Kobe Bryant the fact that the Lakers have been his
team for almost a decade? Again, I don’t know, but I don’t think so.
The Bulls Are His Team Now
This is the first thing out of most NBA analysts’ mouths regarding Rose’s
season. It jives well with the "rejected LeBron to be the leader himself"
storyline, but it’s also well rooted in fact.
Season Usage Percentage
2009 22.6
2010 27.2
2011 31.2
As you can see, his role in the Chicago offense has been trending upwards
since his rookie season. The last Bull with a usage rate as high as Rose in
2011? Michael Jordan in 1998. Rose is shouldering a tremendous amount of
offensive responsibility this year. Not only does he attempt more field goals
per minute than all but three players in the league (Michael Beasley, Bryant
and Carmelo Anthony), he’s also creating for teammates more efficiently than
he ever has before (two assists every five possessions used). As I noted last
week, this propensity to carry the team is only exacerbated in the clutch.
Only Kobe uses more possessions in crunch time than Rose.
As excellent a sidekick as Carlos Boozer is, the Bulls are mostly definitely
Derrick Rose’s team.
(Not) A Model of Efficiency
This, relative to his peers, is where the cracks in Rose’s MVP candidacy
begin to emerge. As huge a role as Rose plays for the Bulls, players sporting
high usage rates are not anomalistic in today’s NBA. The following image
charts the NBA’s top 10 players in usage (possessions):
http://tinyurl.com/4jz9mn9 圖表請點
Rose’s high usage as a point guard is indeed unique, but numerous players
trump him both in terms of possessions used as well as points created with
those possessions. And aside from Kevin Martin and Amar’e Stoudemire, most
of the players on the usage-efficiency chart bear the burden of creating
their own shots (like Rose does). In addition to all that, there’s a case to
be made that usage rate undervalues point guards that do a significant amount
of their offensive damage via passing. Deron Williams, for example, doesn’t
crack the top 20 in terms of usage rate, but his offensive efficiency trumps
everyone on the above chart.
Defense
This is, as always, a tough one to judge. By most (admittedly simplistic)
standards, however, Rose is a solid defender. 82games.com’s opponent PER
stat indicates that Rose allows opposing point guards a 13.5 PER, well below
league average. Chicago’s defense under Tom Thibodeau ranks as the No. 1
unit in the entire league.
Of course, defense probably won’t vault Rose up very much with respect to
other MVP candidates. Dwight Howard’s Magic rank No. 3 in defensive
efficiency (and he’s Dwight Howard), LeBron James’ and Dwyane Wade’s Heat
rank No. 4, and Chris Paul not only has the league’s highest steal
percentage in more than a decade, but his Hornets also rank No. 5 in defense.
Our nebulous quantification efforts of defensive basketball coupled with the
relative team defensive success of a number of MVP candidates makes it
unlikely that defense will be a deciding factor in this year’s race.
The Big Picture
Production in the NBA is a function of efficiency and usage. One is useless
without the other. The graphic isn’t a snapshot of all MVP candidates
(Howard and Paul, for example, are two players that excel in areas outside of
raw usage) but it’s clear that Rose is a cut below even the usage-driven
elite.
Rose has been instrumental to Chicago’s success, but LeBron James and Dwyane
Wade have used just as many possessions to even better effect. If you’re not
a fan of them teaming up, Kevin Durant’s right there with them (and above
Rose). Nobody in the league has been as closely linked to his team’s
offensive success as Kobe Bryant, and Dirk Nowitzki sacrifices mere
percentage points of usage while producing almost 10 points more per 100
possessions (about equal to the offensive disparity between the Cleveland
Cavaliers and Miami Heat). Rose hasn’t even entirely distinguished himself
from another high FGA point guard, Russell Westbrook. And that’s to make no
mention of the off-chart trio of Paul, Howard, and Deron Williams.
As we move to the second half of the season, Rose’s MVP case will only
continue to grow. As of right now, however, it’s not entirely justified by
his on-court production. In conclusion, Derrick Rose has not been one of the
NBA’s five most productive players. But cool story, bro.
--
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