Re: [外電] Flight Of The Suns: A New Way To See …

看板ChicagoBulls (芝加哥公牛)作者sinrong (─═╤╧︻▄& ㄧζ~ㄑ﹫)時間14年前 (2011/02/02 23:49)推噓9(9推 0噓 3→)

留言12則, 10人參與討論串1/1

※ 引述《eertllams (Tree666)》之銘言： By Rohan Cruyff http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2011/1/24/1952725/nba-pace-speed-spurs-suns-knicks 一篇很有趣的分析Pace vs. Speed的文章分析結果大部分都跟大家所知道的相符像快節奏球隊有太陽跟尼克慢節奏球隊有黃蜂跟超賽文中很多圖表大家可以逕自前往原始網頁參看只能說統計跟呈現方式很Fancy (難怪科技產業希望工程師懂點統計) 不過這些結果要如何解釋那些球隊贏球跟輸球則還無定論不過文中有個很特別的結果是從DefensiveSpeedIndex裡馬刺的防守是讓對方球隊在shot clock到之前最急於出手的這揪竟是怎樣的一個原因呢!? 有趣的文章小弟手癢翻一下新手有錯請指正 Orz Flight Of The Suns: A New Way To See Speed In The NBA Is pace really the best indicator of how fast (or slow) teams play? Not so. SBNation.com's Rohan Cruyff unveils Speed Index, a metric based on the shot clock that provides a true sense of pace (broken down for offense and defense) for each team in the league. 球隊的運作速度真的能以攻防節奏來當作指標嗎? 不全然。來自SBNation.com的Rohan Cruyff提出了Speed Index這項指數，根據出手時間提供的真正意義來度量聯盟中的每支球隊的運作速度(再細分為進攻和防守兩部分)。 Jan 24, 2011 - The "possession" is arguably the single most integral concept of the advanced statistics movement in basketball. Explained brilliantly in 2002’s Basketball on Paper by current Nuggets analyst Dean Oliver, a new possession essentially begins every time the ball switches hands. Its importance in quantifying the sport cannot be overstated. It is the great equalizer for players that inflate their numbers through excessive shooting, teams that amplify their point totals by running up and down the floor, defenses that suppress their conceded points by slowing the game to a crawl, and everything in between. 2011年1月24日-"球權"可以說是在籃球運動的進階統計數據中唯一最完整的概念。依照現任金塊分析員Dean Oliver於2002年在'Basketball on Paper'這本書上的精辟解釋，每一次新的球權基本上在球由一隊轉換到另一隊後產生。對於防止這項運動的一些量化數據過於誇大是很重要的。對於那些誇大的濫投出手數，或通過傾於進攻來增加他們分數的球隊，或是想要拖延時間來減低他們的失分的球隊來說這是一個非常好的等化器。 ( Dean Oliver 的 'Basketball on Paper' 和 John Hollinger 的 'Pro Basketball Prospectus' 都是籃球統計數據中的聖經有興趣的可以找來看看另外關於Possesion的部分請參考 http://0rz.tw/6pEvr 侵權請來信告知 ) The commonly used estimate of team speed, pace factor, derives from the possession statistic. Team pace counts how many possessions a team uses over 48 minutes. And for the most part, it does a great job of quantifying how quickly teams play. If you were to name some of the NBA’s fastest teams off the top of your head, the Phoenix Suns, New York Knicks, Golden State Warriors and Denver Nuggets would probably come to mind. Sure enough, each of those ranks among the league’s top five teams in pace factor. 一般用於評斷球隊運作速度的--攻防節奏係數--衍生於對球權數的統計結果。攻防節奏是計算在48分鐘比賽中球隊所獲得的球權數。就大部分方面來說，它在定量一支球隊的速度方面是個不錯的指標。如果你想要把你心中認為最快的NBA球隊依序列出來的話，太陽，尼克，勇士也許你也可以把金塊列進來。當然根據攻防節奏統計的結果前五名的球隊就是上面列出的五支球隊。 But pace factor has its shortcomings. Since the ball doesn’t switch teams on offensive rebounds, a sequence of multiple offensive boards and shot attempts simply counts as a long, drawn out possession. As Henry Abbott has noted at True Hoop, turnovers can also lead to artificially increased "pace," even in the absence of increased speed of play. 但是攻防節奏係數也有不足之處。而因為球權並沒有在獲得籃板球的隊伍有所轉換，所以即使是不斷獲得進攻籃板和出手機會的過程中，也只會計算為一次長且拖戲的球權。正如 Henry Abbott在True Hoop上表示的，失誤也是一種故意增加"節奏"的方式，即使在沒有加快速度的進攻中。 More importantly, shrewd observers will have noticed that the average NBA game is contested by two teams. If one of those teams slogs it out in the half-court on offense and the other looks to push at every opportunity, is it really fair to slap a single number on the game and call it the "pace" of both teams? 更加重要的是，精明的觀察者會注意到一般NBA比賽是由兩支球隊來較量。如果比賽中一支球隊僅通過半場進攻來尋求勝利而另一支球隊利用各種機會來進攻，然後列個數据並說這是球隊的節奏，這樣真的公平嗎? An alternate way of measuring team speed is via the shot clock. Specifically, how much time is left on the clock on average when a team attempts its field goals, and how much remains when an opponent’s attempts go up? 82games.com categorizes all team shots into four groups- 0-10 seconds (clock used), 11-15, 16-20, and 21+. Those numbers can, in turn, be used to develop an alternative method of measuring team pace -- one I’ve dubbed "Speed Index." 衡量球隊的速度的替代之道是看出手時間。準確一點的說是，在每次進攻中球隊每次出手後平均所剩下的時間，以及對手做出同樣嘗試所剩下的時間。82games.com將其依秒數分為四組—0-10秒，11-15秒，16-20秒和21秒以上。這些分類也可以反過來作為衡量球隊攻防節奏的替代方法—我稱之為"速度指數。" Speed Index sets the average league "speed" to 100, with a standard deviation of 15. The higher a team’s number, the faster it plays. Since 82games provides data in those four categories only (and not discrete shot clock values), slight deviations from these values should be expected. Overall, Speed Index provides us with some fascinating points of analysis. Importantly, it can be separated into offensive and defensive components. First up, Offensive Speed Index, or how quickly in the shot clock teams attempt shots. 速度指數將聯盟平均速度定為100，標準差是15。排名越高的球隊，也就越快。而因為 82games提供的數據僅將它分為四組(同時也不是採用離散統計值)，所以可以預期會有偏差值出現。整體來說，速度指數提供我們一些有趣的分析結果。重要的是，它可以分為進攻以及防守兩部分。首先，進攻速度指數，或是說出手時間最快的球隊。 Offensive Speed Index http://tinyurl.com/4rm9lyk 太陽│▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃ 灰狼│▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃ 溜馬│▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃ 尼克│▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃ ↗ 暴龍│▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃ ╱ ≠ ╱ faster 老鷹│▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃ ╱ 黃蜂│▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃ ╱ 超賽│▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃ 籃網│▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃ 活塞│▃▃▃▃▃▃ ├───┬───┬───┬───┬───┬───┬───┬───┬ 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 (僅列出前後五支球隊其餘詳見連接) For reference, an Index value of 100 corresponds to approximately 11.4 seconds left on the shot clock. One standard deviation is equivalent to about 0.65 seconds. 提供參考，指數值100大約相當於出手時間剩下11.4秒。一個標準差等同于大約0.65秒。 At first glance, the majority of the order agrees with conventional wisdom about team speed. Phoenix plays fast. New York plays fast. Boston and New Orleans tend to primarily play in the half court. We can more scientifically assess the differences between Speed Index and Pace Factor by plotting them against one another. The next graph plots the difference between team Speed Index and Pace Factor (where Pace is normalized around 100 as well). Click the image for larger text on the team axis. 咋看之下，符合大多數過去關於球隊速度的傳統思維。太陽速度很快。尼克速度也很快。超賽和黃蜂主要偏好於半場進攻。通過將速度指數和攻防節奏劃在一張圖表上來比較我們可以更加科學化的評估兩者的差別。下一張圖表列出兩者的差別(其中攻防節奏規格化為 100)。點選連接以放大橫軸的球隊名稱。 Speed Index vs. Pace Factor http://tinyurl.com/4h7v3hp 15┐ │ ▃被攻防節奏低估 │ ▌ ▌ 10┤ ▌ ▌ ▌ │ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▃ │ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ 5┤ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ │ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ 熱火勇金馬 │ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ 火箭士塊刺 0┼─────── ∥──────── │太拓溜湖暴 ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ │陽荒馬人龍 ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ -5┤ 者 ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ │ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ │ ▌ ▌ ▌ -10┤ ▃ ▌ ▌ │ 被攻防節奏高估 ▃ ▌ │ -15┘ (僅列出前後五支球隊其餘詳見連接) Some of the main takeaways from the above graph: 來自上面圖表的一些主要資訊: * As Henry Abbott has often pointed out, Portland's high offensive rebounds and low turnovers mean they don't play nearly as slowly as Pace Factor indicates. Their Speed Index value supports this notion; by Speed Index, they're still in the bottom half of the league, but they're much faster than their Pace lets on. *正如Henry Abbott經常指出的，拓荒者的高進攻籃板和低失誤使得他們並不似攻防節奏所指出的那麼慢。拓荒者的速度指數支持了這一概念；儘管在速度指數列表中拓荒者排在聯盟的後半段，但是他們實際上比攻防節奏結果中指出的來快。 * As fast as Phoenix is by pace factor, possessions/game may not actually capture how fast they play. *雖然在攻防節奏的結果中也顯示太陽是支快的球隊，然而通過計算每場比賽的球權(攻防節奏)可能無法確實指出到底太陽有多快。 * San Antonio ranks as the league's most overstated "fast" team.The Spurs rank below league average in shot clock usage but above league average in pace factor. The reason for this disparity is covered next. *在進攻節奏結果中馬刺是聯盟中最被誇大"快"的球隊。在出手時間使用中(速度指數)馬刺是低於聯盟的(意較為慢)但是在進攻節奏的結果中卻顯示高於聯盟平均。關於這部分的差異下面會做出解釋。 As noted earlier, teams play different speeds on offense and defense. The next chart is the defensive counterpart of Offensive Speed Index. How quickly do opponents shoot in the shot clock against NBA teams? 正如之前說的，球隊的進攻和防守會有不同的速度。下一個圖表防守速度指數是進攻指數的相對應部分。防守速度指數就是說在防守時，對手出手的所需的時間。 Defensive Speed Index http://tinyurl.com/69uw68d 黃蜂│▃▃▃▃ 山貓│▃▃▃▃▃ 魔術│▃▃▃▃▃▃ ↖ 公牛│▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃ ＼公鹿│▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃ ＼ slower ≠ ＼尼克│▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃ ＼老鷹│▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃ ＼湖人│▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃ 勇士│▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃ 馬刺│▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃ ├───┬───┬───┬───┬───┬───┬───┬───┬ 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 (僅列出前後五支球隊其餘詳見連接) At this juncture, a number of intriguing details present themselves. First of all, while a number of elite defensive teams force opponents to shoot late in the shot clock (New Orleans, Orlando, Chicago, Milwaukee), many great defensive teams do not do this (Miami, San Antonio, Lakers, Boston). In fact, there is not a statistically significant relationship between defensive efficiency and defensive speed index. 在這裡，呈現一些耐人尋味的細節。首先，雖然有部分防守強悍的球隊能夠讓對手在出手前消耗大量進攻時間(黃蜂，魔術，公牛，公鹿)，但是其他防守強大的球隊卻沒有出現這樣的統計結果(熱火，馬刺，湖人，超賽)。事實上，在防守效率和防守速度指數兩者之間並沒有在統計上有顯著的關聯。 But the low speeds of certain teams offer explanations as to their defensive footprints. The New Orleans Hornets, the league’s slowest defensive team, utilize heavy doses of zone defense and aggressive rotations to force extra passes and minimize opponent drives. This naturally extends the time in the shot clock at which opponents finally attempt shots. 但是一些特定球隊低的防守速度指數可以以他們的防守策略做出解釋。黃蜂，聯盟中防守速度指數最低的球隊，利用了大量的區域聯防和積極輪轉協防來迫使對手做出更多傳球和減少運球。這理所當然造成對手在出手前消耗大量進攻時間。 The craziest data point, of course, belongs to the San Antonio Spurs. Opponents shoot earlier in the shot clock against the Spurs than against any other team in the league. It’s difficult to specify exactly why this is. The Spurs are a great defensive rebounding team and thus do not give up many put-backs early in new shot clocks. They’re about league average in fast break points allowed. They foul less often than any other team in the NBA and thus aren’t sending opponents to the line in penalty situations. Moreover, the Spurs rank in the top five in lowest field goal percentage allowed on shots taken early in the shot clock. 當然，最怪的數據就是馬刺的部分了。相較于面對聯盟中的其他隊伍，對手在面對馬刺時是最急著出手的。想要指出為何發生這種情況的原因是很困難的。因為馬刺是一支擁有出色防守籃板數據的球隊因此並不會讓對手有太多機會得到進攻籃板且在新的進攻時間中快速的完成補籃的動作。馬刺讓對手取得快攻的分數大約是聯盟的平均值。而他們的犯規次數是聯盟中最低的因此也不會讓對手有太多機會站上罰球線。此外，那些面對馬刺的快速出手的命中率位列聯盟中最低的5位之中。 So what gives? Your guess is as good as mine. But the overall point is San Antonio’s increased pace this year is largely a function of defensive speed index as opposed to offensive speed index. 這說明了什麼?你猜得和我一樣好。今年馬刺增加攻防節奏的最大原因歸于防守速度指數和進攻指數的對立。 We can extend the question "is a team’s speed driven more by their offense or their defense?" to the rest of the league as well. 我們可以用同樣的問題"一支球隊的速度更多是由進攻還是防守決定?"來討論聯盟中的其他球隊。 Speed Differential http://tinyurl.com/657mpgn 30┐ │ ▃ │ ▌決定於進攻 20┤ ▌ ▌ │ ▌ ▌ ▃ │ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▃ 10┤ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ │ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ 湖公勇馬魔 │ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ 人牛士刺術 0┼─────── ∥──────── │灰太籃溜熱 ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ │狼陽網馬火 ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ 10┤ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ │ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ ▌ │ ▃ ▌ ▌ ▌ -20┤ ▌ ▌ │ ▃ ▌ │ 決定於防守 -30┘ (僅列出前後五支球隊其餘詳見連接) Orlando’s team speed is more driven by its defense than any other team in the league. (In other words, they’re considered a "slow" team by pace factor and speed index due entirely to their defense). On the flip side, Minnesota’ s and Phoenix’s team speeds are driven entirely by their speedy offenses. 聯盟中最偏向由防守來決定速度球隊的是魔術。(換句話說，他們在攻防節奏和速度指數中被視為"慢"的球隊，全然歸因於他們的防守)。在另一方面，灰狼和太陽的速度完全由快速的進攻來主導。＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊ One common talking point among commentators is the idea of "controlling tempo." Measuring team speed as disparate quantities on the offensive and defensive ends allows us to more accurately determine which teams control tempo and how they do it. 評論者之間經常討論的一個焦點就是"控制節拍"的概念。通過分別計算進攻端和防守端的數據來衡量球隊的速度讓我們可以更加精確的確定哪支球隊控制了'節奏'以及如何做到。 Teams like the Suns try to dominate game tempo, but it's primarily an offensive phenomenon. We don't have game by game variance data, but the Suns' complete lack of defensive success suggests that while they do succeed in controlling game speed on one side of the ball, they have little say on what happens on the other. The Spurs, in many ways, appear to be the anti-Suns. For mysterious, unexplained reasons, they rapidly drive up defensive tempo while maintaining sub-league average offensive speed. Finally, a team like New Orleans dictates, on a nightly basis, the tempo on both ends of the floor. 像是太陽這樣想要試著支配球賽節拍的球隊，根本上只是一種進攻現象而已。我們並沒有每場球賽的樣本變異數，但是太陽完全缺乏防守很好的暗示了當他們成功通過進攻來掌控球賽速度時，他們在另一端的表現是不足夠的。馬刺，多方面，都表現出和太陽相反。因為神秘而不明的原因，馬刺能夠在維持低於聯盟平均的進攻速度的同時加快防守的節拍。最終來說，黃蜂掌握了每晚比賽中進攻和防守兩端的節拍。 -- 馬刺 : 年輕人就是年輕人太衝動了 ( ￣ c￣)y▂ξ -- 翻完了我也不是很懂看起來是另外一種評估球隊速度的方法有錯請指正 Orz 祝各位板友新年快樂萬事如意心想事成財源滾滾~ -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 122.117.16.132