[外電] D. Rose, the MVP race, and the Isiah …
一篇Matt Johnson 寫得外電 關於Rose 跟吵到爛的MVP話題
主要是回我下面一篇
True Hoop 作者Tom Haberstroh的討論LBJ vs. ROSE的文章
Matt認為 Tom 用 +/- 的raw data來評論Rose 而不是用調整過得 +/- 數值
後面一大段提到古早的兩位明星攻擊型控衛 來跟Rose比較
一個是拿到兩次冠軍
Isiah Thomas 一個是跟湖人爭過冠軍 由AI帶領的七六人
http://tinyurl.com/4jvlljh 本文連結
With Derrick Rose‘s continued improvement, and the Chicago Bulls‘ emergence
as a championship contender, Rose has received quite a bit of discussion as
an MVP candidate. At the most superficial level, the argument for Rose goes
something like this:
" Rose is doing it all by himself. Yeah, there’s Boozer & Noah,
but they’ve been injured and the Bulls still were great. Yeah,
Rose’s efficiency isn’t the best, but they’ve got no one else
to go to when they need a bucket. If it weren’t for Rose,
the Bulls would be terrible. "
ESPN’s Tom Haberstroh just wrote a piece我放在下一篇 that goes
significantly more depth on Rose’s MVP candidacy, and it’s good. It’s
focused on one really key point that is crucial to understand: The Bulls are
winning because they have great defense, not because they have great
offense – and Rose is absolutely not the primary reason for the defensive
success since he’s very much an offensive oriented star. So that’s the
trick, this isn’t a case of one player so unstoppable on offense that his
team’s offense thrives even without supporting talent, it’s a story of a
defense so good, that they can get away with a mediocre offense run by one
ball dominant player.
As well as Haberstroh stated that though, he’s still not going as deep as is
needed, and he’s making some mistakes along the way.
A team’s forte doesn’t need to be its star’s forte
Fundamentally, the problem with Haberstroh’s conclusion is this: Just
because a team’s defense is it’s strength, doesn’t mean that it’s most
valuable player can’t be offensive-oriented. For an analogy: Consider a
company with a team of 50 technicians assembling product, and 2 salesmen who
augment sales by 25%. Clearly, the company’s technician team is more
valuable than the sales team, but that doesn’t mean that each technician is
more valuable than each salesman – in fact, likely the opposite conclusion
is the correct one.
This year the player on the Bulls who has played the 3rd most has played
about 1250 minutes. Rose has played over 2100 to lead the team, and Luol Deng
runs second at a bit over 2000. I agree with Haberstroh that rookie coach Tom
Thibodeau has done an incredible job with the defense, but with Rose playing
so much more than everyone else but Deng, it’s quite plausible to say that
Rose actually has been the team’s defensive MVP. Meanwhile on offense, Rose
has the time edge, and every facet of the offense revolving around him. I
realize Haberstroh wasn’t trying to say Rose isn’t his team’s MVP, but
really, any intuitive break down here says that Rose is drastically more
valuable to his team than any of his teammates. The same cannot be said for
the man Haberstroh champions: LeBron James.
At this point I’ll reiterate that I’m not fundamentally against LeBron as
an MVP choice right now, I’m just trying to keep everyone to keep an open
mind.)
Haberstroh then goes directly to the use of +/- stats here to make his case,
but is really a shame because a deeper look at those stats make the same
point as my salesman example. Here’s what he wrote:
引用那篇When his advocates ask, “Where would the Bulls be without Rose?”
the question is meant to be a rhetorical one. The obvious
implication is that a Rose-less Bulls squad would instantly become
a basement dweller. But rather than blindly accept it, we can
actually see how the Bulls have managed without him on the court.
And how have they fared with Rose benched? By beating opponents
by 51 points on the season, or an average of 4.9 points every 100
possessions.
Now first, he’s using raw on/off numbers here. Usage of them is fine, but
usage of them without using the more sophisticated adjusted +/- (APM) version
of the stat is unwise. APM, for those unfamiliar, actually factors in who
that player has played with and against, and how much time he has spent doing
for each and every player in the Association. Consider: If a player spends a
disproportionate amount of time with weaker teammates against stronger
opponents, then this will mean his on/off +/- will underrate him. In such a
circumstance we would expect a modest on/off number and a stronger APM
numbers.
What do we find with Rose? Exactly that. According to basketballvalue.com,
his on/off number is a +2.33, but his APM is +11.56. None of the other
rotation players on the Bulls have an APM north of +1.0, so Rose is
*drastically* ahead of his teammates according to this stat even if you don’
t think about the fact that he’s played so much more than the other players
on his team (except for Deng).
Also incidentally, basketballvalue.com has offensive and defensive splits for
the raw on/off numbers, and they back up what’s been said about Rose as an
offensive impact guy, so to the extent that Rose is carrying his team,
everything seems to point to that being an offense thing. Very clearly, it is
Thibodeau who deserves raves for the defense. Haberstroh talks about Thibs as
worthy of coach of the year, and that it’s likely only the Spurs’ amazing
performance that would prevent that – I strongly agree on both counts.
The Isiah-Iverson Star Model and some concerns
Let’s talk a little bit more about the offensive star on a defense-oriented
team. There are two stars in my lifetime that comes to mind immediately as
fitting this bill similarly: Isiah Thomas and Allen Iverson.
Thomas rose to prominence as the star of the 2-time NBA champion Detroit
Pistons, who were known for rough defense led by Bill Laimbeer, Joe Dumars,
and Dennis Rodman. However, to some degree at least, Thomas’ star status is
beyond debate. In those playoff runs, Thomas wasn’t just the guy who
happened to score the most points, he put up some absolutely legendary
performances against top opponents on the biggest stage.
Iverson of course had his one annus mirabilis ’00-01 where he became the
toast of the NBA. Like Rose, the team success was unexpected and came with
significant teammate instability. While it again makes sense to credit team
members other than the star for the defensive success, and while the 76ers
were a team thriving on defense, it becomes far fetched to seriously argue
that Iverson wasn’t far and away the most valuable player of the team.
For a young player such as Rose, comparisons to Isiah and AI is pretty heady
stuff. Anyone who doesn’t see Rose as a threat to go down as a player with
similar accolades should spend time thinking more on what it is those two
HOFers had, that Rose isn’t close to achieving himself.
At the same time, put me in the camp that believes both of those stars are
indeed overrated.
Those legendary games from Isiah are great, but I’m loathe to focus too much
on specific games. If I can’t rely on a player pulling off a level of
performance consistently, then I don’t consider it to be totally real. Isiah
put up numbers of middling volume and middling efficiency, because that’s
what he could consistently achieve – and no one would be that in love with
the man if it weren’t for those titles, for which he was absolutely
dependent on his teammates’ stellar defense.
Iverson’s ’00-01 is interesting because he may have indeed been worthy of
the MVP that year, but regardless of that, the man’s impact was clearly, and
significantly, overrated in later years. For year’s I argued that the “they
’d win nothing without him” argument was wrongly applied to AI. The team
played mediocre with him, and mediocre without him, not horrendous. Then the
trade came, the 76ers didn’t turned into the LeBron-less Cavaliers, and
Iverson’s reputation eventually fell off a cliff. At this point, it’s
simply considered a given that no one is willing to admit they think Iverson
deserved his MVP.
And yet, those 76ers really did have a record as good as the Lakers that
year, and the non-Laker, non-Iverson contender is Tim Duncan, who really didn
’t get to his peak until the next couple years. I’m willing to say I’m
really not sure whether Iverson deserved it or not.
All of this makes me both want to defend Rose to others, and reluctant to be
that swayed by him. I think the attacks on Rose’s MVP candidacy tend to be
confused in their nature. Basically you’ve got a ton of people who simply don
’t like like giving a clearly inferior player (as Rose is to LeBron) the
MVP. This is a perfectly fine philosophy for them to have, but they aren’t
content to have it and live & let live, and so they make bolder attacks which
just get them into trouble. At the same time, Rose’s place on my own MVP
lists has always been done without enthusiasm simply because of my
uncertainties. I can’t honestly make an argument for specific teammates of
Rose having significantly bigger impact than you’d think if the Bulls were
less successful, however it wouldn’t surprise me terribly if the Bulls’
offense wouldn’t be drastically worse than they are now if they had
everyone happy but Rose – and it really won’t surprise me at all if we find
that Rose-dominated offenses never approach excellence even as he has
offensive talent begin to accumulate in large quantities around him.
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 128.248.166.87
※ 編輯: eertllams 來自: 128.248.166.87 (02/26 01:22)
推
02/26 13:46, , 1F
02/26 13:46, 1F
ChicagoBulls 近期熱門文章
PTT體育區 即時熱門文章
