[外電] 防守底線三分的重要性

看板ChicagoBulls (芝加哥公牛)作者eertllams (Tree666)時間13年前 (2012/03/30 12:23)推噓13(13推 0噓 2→)

留言15則, 15人參與討論串1/1

Why corner threes matter for defenses http://tinyurl.com/7ant43u It has become accepted among NBA geeks that the hierarchy of the “best” shots, from most efficient to least, goes something like this: 被大部分的NBA鍵盤專家認同最有效率的出手依序為 1. Dunks/layups 1. 灌籃上籃 2. Free throws 2. 罰球 3. Corner three-pointers 3. 底線三分 4. Other three-pointers 4. 其他三分出手 5. Mid-range shots 5. 中距離投籃 Teams last season shot 39 percent on corner threes, which is about the same percentage teams shoot overall on two-pointers outside the restricted area. Teams last season shot about 35.5 percent on all three-pointers, meaning they shot something like 33.5 percent to 34 percent on three-pointers taken anywhere but the corners. 上個球季全NBA底線三分的命中率是39% 這幾乎等同於扣掉衝撞區的兩分球命中率 NBA球隊上球季的三分命中率是35.5% 換句話說扣掉底線之外的三分其他三分命中率大概僅33-34% In short: The corner three is a great shot, something Spurs coach Gregg Popovich understood probably before the Internet became a thing. 簡言之: 底線三分是很好的出手早在網路還沒盛行前波波維奇就已經瞭解其重要性 Basketball is a game of finite possessions and close scoring margins. It matters if a team’s defense can chase shooters off of corner threes a couple of times per game, and limit those shooters instead to floaters or some other shot that is a) difficult and b) counts for only two points if it goes in. 籃球比賽就是由有限的持球跟得分的一些手段組成如果一個球隊的防守可以迫使對手減少底線三分出手改選擇比較困難的攻擊方式像是拋射,甚至其他困難的攻擊就算進了也只是兩分 Last week, I noted one reason the Clippers have ranked among the bottom 10 defensive teams this season: Opponents are shooting the lights out (about 44 percent) on corner three-pointers. The league was kind enough to send me data on opponent corner threes for every team over the last two seasons (through March 27), and I sent that data along to a two stats-savvy readers (Eric Maroun and Aaron McGuire, the latter of the fantastic blog Gothic Ginobili). Those guys then measured how strongly defending the corner three correlates with overall defense and team winning percentage. 上週我注意到快艇被評為本季目前防守的倒數十名快艇的對手在底線三分可以有44%的命中率聯盟很好心的把這兩個球季(三月27號之前)的每一隊的底線三分的資料分享給我我也隨後把資料寄給我倆個統計學上牛逼的讀者他們兩位隨即分析把底線三分防守好的球隊跟球隊整體防守跟勝率的關聯性 The answers are interesting, if incomplete. A few general findings before we get to the team level: 分析結果非常有趣 (不過分析目前還不完整) 有些我們的發現在討論是那些球隊前先與大家分享 ‧ Limiting attempts seems to matter more than the percentage of corner threes opponents make. That’s not surprising. Lots of studies have found that limiting raw three-point attempts matters more than opponent three-point percentage. The raw number of corner-three attempts allowed last season correlated more strongly with both winning percentage and overall defensive rating than shooting percentage on corner threes, according to work by Maroun and McGuire. It also correlated more strongly with winning percentage than a team’s defensive rebounding rate and the rate at which a team forced turnovers. (In general, the correlation between defensive rebounding and winning percentage is typically stronger than it was last season, according to historical data.) 限制對手的(底線三分)出手數似乎比對手的底線三分命中率更為重要! 這不意外我們發現能限制對方底線三分的出手數目跟球隊的整體防守排名還有球隊勝利大為相關! 根據他們的分析還發現如果比較其他大家熟知的一些參數 (大家都理解的) 防守籃板率或是逼迫對方的失誤彼此的高相關竟然比這篇文章討論的球隊的勝率與限制對手底線三分還要低一些！ In general, the amount of corner threes a team allowed last season correlated strongly with winning percentage as a few other key factors have done so in prior years, including how often a team allows and earns free throws. 對手底線三分出手數跟勝率有正相關之外當然還有其他因子也會影響勝率好比說你多常讓對手佔上罰球線? Last season’s Rockets (41.9 percent allowed on corner threes) and Spurs (a league-worst 47 percent) both survived defensively in part because they ranked second and fourth, respectively, in the number of corner-three attempts they permitted. 上個球季火箭對手底線三分有41.9% 馬刺更讓對手有47%的高命中率(聯盟最差) 但是這兩隊的防守還是讓大家稱讚因為以計算對手底線三分出手的話火箭排第二馬刺排第四 Overall last season, the average team attempted 412 corner threes. Of the 12 defenses that allowed fewer than 412 corner-three tries, nine ranked among the league’s 15 stingiest defenses overall. That group included the Bulls and Celtics, the league’s two best defenses. And of the 12 teams that allowed the most corner-three attempts, only one — the Lakers — ranked better than 17th in points allowed per possession. 上個球季整體來說平均的球隊底線出手三分數目為 412 次 12隻讓對手總出手少於 412 次的球隊裡 9個球隊排在防守排名的前15名!! 這包含了公牛與Celtics 而後面12隻讓對手投超過 412 次的球隊裡面防守榜中唯一上榜的只有湖人在讓對手的(100次出手裡)平均得分可以排到16名 (連前10都沒) There are exceptions, obviously, and this season’s Clippers are an example of how damaging even an average number of corner-three attempts can be if a large chunk of them are wide-open looks. And last season, five of the league’s 10 stingiest defenses, in terms of points allowed per possession, allowed an above-average number of attempts from the corner: the Heat, Magic, Grizzlies, Hornets and Lakers. But four of those teams — all but the Lakers — allowed a number of corner threes close to the league average. Yielding a lot of such shots was generally bad. 當然也有例外好比說這個球季的快艇隊快艇本身沒有讓對手有很多底線三分出手數但是　　大部分出手都是大空檔　(對手底線三分命中率44%) 還是隊快艇造成很大傷害 ‧ Chicago is ridiculous. The Bulls through 49 games this season had allowed 140 corner-three attempts. The Sixers, through that same stretch, had allowed the second-fewest — 192. The gap between Chicago and Philly is the equivalent of the gap between the Sixers and the league average for corner-three attempts allowed. Chicago opponents are attempting just 2.85 corner threes per game; the average team attempts about five per game. 公牛隊很扯.....本球季49場球賽公牛只讓對手地線三分出手140次 76人隊也打了49場讓對手出手次數排第二少但是有192次出手這兩隊得差距差不多就是76人跟聯盟平均的差距所以聯盟目前為止平均讓對手出手底線三分224次以平均來看一個球隊平均一場底線三分可以出手5次但你是跟公牛比賽同樣地點你只能出手2.85次 Guess who yielded the fewest corner-three attempts last season? The Bulls, with a total of 305, or about 3.8 per game. They have shaved a full attempt off that number this season. Tom Thibodeau is scary. 那你可以猜猜上個球季讓對手底線三分出手最少的球隊是?? 還是公牛! 記得聯盟平均是412次 82場的公牛對手卻只能出手305次平均只有3.8次但是....今年公牛卻讓對手在整整在少出手一次老席你太可怕了!! ‧ We might be seeing the impact of coaching here in lots of cases. Rick Adelman, for one, appears to be a huge difference-maker in terms of defending the corner three. The Timberwolves allowed a league-high 511 corner-three attempts — about 6.2 per game — last season under Kurt Rambis. Under Adelman, the Wolves have allowed about 4.3 corner threes per game, the fifth-lowest amount. They are playing at a slower pace this season, but the decline — about three possessions per game — does not come close to explaining the drop-off in corner threes on its own. 所以從這份數據還可以看出教練執教的影響去年灰狼讓對手每場可以出手6.2次但是在換了經驗豐富的Rick Adelman之後今年對手只能出手4.3次算是聯盟排第五少的 This is especially so when you look at Adelman’s former team, the Rockets. Houston last season allowed the second-fewest corner-three attempts, trailing only the Bulls, but they’ve allowed more than average this season. In fact, the Rockets are on pace to allow about 30 more corner three tries in this 66-game season than they did in the full 82 last season. 而且去年Adelman執教的火箭隊是上季讓底線三分出手第二少的! （僅公牛之後）但是今年的火箭在Adelman走之後對手的底線三分出手是多於聯盟平均換算總數火箭的步調打完66場對手總底線三分出手會比去年的82場多30次 In what probably amounts to a heavy dose of good luck, the Wolves have held opponents to 28.4 percent shooting on corner threes this season. That is unsustainable, but perhaps another sign of how much Adelman emphasizes contesting this shot. 似乎有點運氣成份今年的灰狼對手的底線三分不但出手少命中率還只有28.4% 不過也許這也要歸功於Adelman要求球員能出去挑戰對手投籃 Doug Collins’ Philladelphia team, filled with rangy and quick athletes, has effectively shut down the corner three for two years running. Only Chicago has allowed fewer such shots combined over the last two seasons, and Philly opponents have shot below the league average from the corner in both seasons. 文前提到的76人隊　　由Doug Collins帶領一群體能好速度快的球員連續兩年　很有效的嚇阻對手出手底線三分　(兩年總數只多公牛) 兩年內對手的底線三分命中率　　也低於聯盟平均 Another coach to watch: Lawrence Frank. The Pistons are right behind Philly in corner-three attempts allowed after surrendering many more than average last season while playing at a tortoise-like pace. Frank, of course, is a defense-first coach who spent 2010-11 with the Celtics, a team that patrols the corner well. 另一個你可以注意的教練　是Lawrence Frank 去年防守不好得活塞隊在Lawrence的執教下　　今年對手底線三分出手數只輸給76人排第三他是一個防守排第一的教練　　10-11年他在Celtics體系工作 Celtics也是把角落守得很好得球隊之一　　 Likewise, the Lakers are allowing about 1.2 fewer attempts from the corner this season under Mike Brown. 湖人今年在Mike Brown的執教下　比去年讓對手少出手底線三分1.2次 ‧ Luck may play a part. It would be interesting to spend a bit more time with these numbers to see how much teams can really control opponent shooting percentages from this spot. League observers ranging from Phoenix coach Alvin Gentry to Basketball Prospectus genius Kevin Pelton have argued that random luck plays a fairly large role in three-point percentage against, as evidenced by how the same stat often varies hugely from year-to-year on teams that undergo very little roster turnover. 如果我可以在研究久一點　也許可以發現　那些球隊可以讓對手在底線三分的命中率不高　不過很多籃球專家　　包括太陽隊教練簡崔　認為有時候只是隨機的運氣　　影響著三分球的命中率所以同樣的一個數據　即使球員名單變化不大　每年跟每年也許都有很大的差異 San Antonio, for instance, is holding teams to 36 percent shooting on corner threes this season after yielding that ghastly 47 percent figure last season. Is that luck, or has Popovich’s club sharpened its focus? 像是今年的馬刺　　只讓對手底線三分36% 但是去年對手卻有超好得47% 是運氣成份　　還是波波今年改變得防守方針？ -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 71.236.225.133 ※ 編輯: eertllams 來自: 71.236.225.133 (03/30 12:24) ※ 編輯: eertllams 來自: 71.236.225.133 (03/30 12:27) ※ 編輯: eertllams 來自: 71.236.225.133 (03/30 12:29)