[外電] Loss of Asik another reason Bulls

看板ChicagoBulls (芝加哥公牛)作者rosebulls (fast don't lie)時間13年前 (2012/08/01 20:59)推噓0(0推 0噓 0→)

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Loss of Omer Asik another reason Bulls likely to take step back in the East http://nba-point-forward.si.com/2012/07/24/omer-asik-bulls-rockets/ The Bulls have agreed to terms with guards Kirk Hinrich and Marco Belinelli, and in the process surrendered center Omer Asik to the Rockets via a backloaded offer sheet, per K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune. Thus ends a puzzling offseason for Chicago, back-to-back regular-season champions of the Eastern Conference who now appear a bit further behind Miami — the measuring stick now for any would-be title contender — than they were before Derrick Rose blew out his knee in the April playoff opener. This is clearly a financial choice for the Bulls, who will nonetheless pay the luxury tax for the first time in franchise history. Chicago’s new players — Hinrich, Belinelli, forward Vladimir Radmanovic, center Nazr Mohammed and point guard Marquis Teague, a first-round pick — will combine to be paid an estimated $7.5 million less than the departed Kyle Korver, Ronnie Brewer, C.J. Watson and Asik would have made under their various options and offer sheets. Chicago, in theory, could have kept Asik and Watson and either Korver or Brewer and been in the same financial ballpark. However, the 2012-13 tax hit would have been worse, and Asik’s deal would have been a tax killer in 2014-15; the Turkish big man would have counted for about $15 million on Chicago’s cap for that season, leaving the Bulls with about $62 million committed to just four players — Asik, Rose, center Joakim Noah and power forward Carlos Boozer. You’ll notice that the last two of those are Chicago’s starting big men. That gets at the heart of the real issue here: When you’re paying two big men in their respective primes the kind of money Chicago is paying Noah and Boozer, you really shouldn’t be fretting about the fourth big man on your roster (Taj Gibson, of course, is No. 3). Just for kicks, I looked back at the postseason rotations of every conference finalist from 2003-04 through last season and found that just a hair more than half of those teams didn’t even feature a fourth traditional big man. Digging deeper, the lack of need for a fourth big stemmed from a few key factors beyond the basic need for good health among the core bigs: ‧ Having at least one big man capable of playing 40 minutes per game. If a team had one of these guys — a prime Dwight Howard, Kevin Garnett, Amar’e Stoudemire or Shaquille O’Neal — it had little need to go beyond the third big on the depth chart. This rule also generally applied if teams had two quality big man capable of logging at least 35 minutes per night, though a couple of such teams — the 2003-04 Pistons and the 2010-11 Bulls — represent small exceptions, with fourth bigs (Mehmet Okur and Asik) who managed to (barely) get double-digit minutes despite quality at the top of the roster. In general terms, teams that required some heavy lifting from a fourth big man lacked a power forward or center capable of going for something like 38 minutes per game — or two such players who could credibly play 32-35 minutes. The LeBron-era Cavaliers, 2006-07 Spurs and 2007-08/2009-10 Celtics stand as good examples of teams that needed regular minutes from a fourth big man to compensate for the limitations of one or more starters. ‧ The roster versatility to “go small,” with a traditional small forward shifting to power forward. We saw this most dramatically with the Heat and Thunder last season, but a bunch of teams over the last decade have cobbled together a “fourth” big man by combining short stretches of small-ball and a tiny patchwork of minutes from a fourth and fifth “traditional” big man. And just to be clear, several teams didn’t even need to go small to keep the fourth big man glued to the bench; the Pistons of 2005-06 and 2007-08 and the Lakers of 2009-10 represent a few examples of teams that played “big” virtually all of the time and nonetheless relied on only three traditional big men for just about all meaningful power forward/center minutes. The real issue with the Bulls is that they haven’t been talented or creative enough to go either of these routes consistently, which is why Asik’s loss will sting. Boozer, notwithstanding one insane All-Defensive team vote, is a minus defender with lead feet that make him prone to hopeless reaching on the pick-and-roll, and he has failed to earn coach Tom Thibodeau’s trust as a consistent crunch-time option. Noah has (mostly) earned that trust. But because Noah hasn’t emerged as a consistent enough offensive player on a team with occasionally serious spacing issues, Thibodeau doesn’t absolutely have to have him out there at money time. As a result, the coach often used the two-man defensive hellfire and rebounding machine of Asik/Gibson for extended fourth-quarter minutes. The Bulls allowed about 95 points per 100 possessions last season and rebounded about 32 percent their own misses, both top-three marks. They have been neck-and-neck with Boston over the last two seasons as the league’s stingiest defense. That defense and their offensive rebounding have reached historically nutty levels with Asik and Gibson together. With those two on the floor last season, the Bulls rebounded 35 percent of their misses and yielded an astounding 86 points per 100 possessions. That defensive mark would be the best in league history by a long shot — so good that no team could possibly sustain it over a full season. They have needed Asik more than they should have, and they will miss him. Mohammed, presumably the fourth big, is a sieve on defense, and Radmanovic is a useful small-ballish power forward who will struggle for time against an ultra-quick and deeper Miami team. The Bulls will also miss Asik in part because Thibodeau has ditched small-ball aside from a very effective stretch early in the 2010-11 season, when small forward Luol Deng played significant minutes at power forward as both Noah and then Boozer dealt with major injuries. Chicago’s guard and wing rotation just hasn’t been reliable enough, in Thibodeau’s eyes, to justify that play — not even against the relatively small Heat in the 2011 conference finals. The Watson/Rose combination brought some size issues. Korver supplied precious spacing but needed to be hidden on defense. Brewer was an ace on defense, fully capable of guarding small forwards, but his lack of shooting crunched Chicago’s spacing, and he represented Deng’s only reliable backup. Deng is an iron man, but he has to rest sometime, and that limited Thibodeau’s ability to play Deng and Brewer together. The signing of Richard Hamilton last season was supposed to provide even more wing depth, but he was never healthy enough for Chicago to really test all of the possibilities. The Bulls, in theory, should be able to survive the loss of Asik by leaning more on their top three big men and engineering more roster versatility. But “in theory” may not apply to reality. The additions of Belinelli and Hinrich, the latter a combo guard much more than a point guard, and the continued development of Jimmy Butler might help in this regard. Hinrich brings more size to the Watson role, and Belinelli is a good three-point shooter with just enough ball-handling and passing skills to keep defenses honest (and to convince Belinelli that it’s OK for him to launch off-the-dribble 20-footers on the pick-and-roll). But Hinrich is a shaky shooter who doesn’t attack the rim much anymore; Belinelli is probably a slight minus overall on defense; Hamilton is only getting older and more fragile; and Butler is unproven on the NBA level despite a strong showing at the Las Vegas summer league. Butler also remains the only viable backup for Deng. Overall, this feels like a backward step for the Bulls before even considering how much time Rose and Deng might miss next season due to injuries. They won’t have cap space to correct it next summer, either, though they could carve out some by using the amnesty clause on Boozer and further thinning out the frontcourt. Chicago has about $63 million committed for 2013-14, not including the full amount of Hamilton’s deal or a cap hold for Gibson, who will be a free agent after this season. That puts Chicago over the cap and likely close enough to the tax line to take the full mid-level exception out of play. As for the Rockets, they are probably overpaying here, but it’s not as bad an overpay as those unfamiliar with Asik might think. Big men get paid — the Sixers will pay Spencer Hawes and Kwame Brown $9.5 million combined next season — and unlike some of those big men who are cashing in, Asik has two proven elite skills: defense and rebounding. He won’t able to do either at quite the same level in extended minutes, but big men who can defend at a high level beyond just taking up space are enormously valuable. Houston’s cap situation is so clean that the team can withstand an overpay here. The Rockets will have only about $24 million in guaranteed money on the books for 2013-14, putting them in comfortable position to offer a max contract and much more next summer. (That doesn’t include cheap options on Patrick Patterson, Marcus Morris or Chandler Parsons). Even now, with Asik and Jeremy Lin on board, their 2012-13 cap figure is only around $49 million, leaving them about $9 million of space. Combine that with Kevin Martin’s expiring deal and some outgoing salaries tied to first- and second-year players, and they could still take back Jason Richardson or Glen Davis from Orlando in a Dwight Howard deal. And it wouldn’t take much work to carve out enough space to add Chris Duhon or Quentin Richardson. The Howard story, as always, drones on. 翻譯轉錄自虎撲失去阿西克，公牛的損失究竟在哪 http://bbs.hupu.com/4053896.html 芝加哥論壇報的K.C-詹森透露，公牛已經和柯克-辛裡奇和馬克-貝裡內利達成了加盟協定，但他們同時也放棄了匹配火箭對中鋒阿西克的報價。在上賽季季後賽中，因為羅斯的受傷而經歷了讓人匪夷所思的“黑八”。在現在看起來，上賽季常規賽冠軍公牛，在暑期補強的腳步已經落後了邁阿密，他們現在看起來比上賽季那一隻健康的公牛隊已經損失了很多。放棄匹配阿西克對公牛來說是出於經濟上的考慮，因為他們不想首次為聯盟上繳奢侈稅。公牛所簽下的下賽季的新成員辛裡奇、貝裡內利、弗拉基米爾-拉德馬諾維奇、納茲爾-默罕默德和第一輪新秀馬奎茲-蒂格的薪金總和，將比已經離隊的凱利-科沃爾、羅尼-布魯爾、C.J.-沃特森和阿西克這幾個人的薪金總和要少去750萬美刀。理論上來說，芝加哥應該匹配阿西克的合同、留下沃特森、選擇科沃爾或者布魯爾其中的一個，然後讓下賽季的薪金結構和上賽季的薪金結構相似。但不管怎麼樣，在2012-13賽季球隊可能更容易觸碰工資帽，而且根據阿西克的合同，他在2014-15賽季他將拿到1500萬美元，這會像毒藥一樣殘害公牛隊的薪金結構。如果留下阿西克，那一賽季僅僅羅斯、布澤爾、諾阿和阿西克四人就要吞掉6200萬美元的薪金空間。諾阿和布澤爾都是球隊的首發，這就會觸及聯盟中一直都在出現的實際問題：如果你的內線首發球員都已經是千萬的大合同，那你就不要再想擁有第四個優秀的內線（公牛的第三個優秀的內線是泰-吉布森）。我在沒事做的時候確實查過從2003-04賽季之後至今所有的休賽期交易市場，有一大半的球隊都沒有留住他們球隊的第四個優秀大個子。下面就讓我們一起更深層次地分析一下，球隊無法留住“第四個”大個子球員的原因： 1、球隊至少有一個內線球員有能力每場比賽打滿40分鐘。如果球隊中有像霍華德、加內特、小斯或者沙克-奧尼爾這樣的內線的話，他們只需要有兩個內線替補就夠了。這個定律在球隊有兩個可以在球場上打滿35分鐘以上的球員時同樣適用。僅有的兩個例外就是2003-04賽季的活塞和2010-11賽季的公牛，兩隻球隊當年的第四內線上場時間也可以勉強達到兩位數（像當年的奧庫和上賽季的阿西克……慢著，怎麼都是土耳其人）。總體而言，如果缺少一個可以每場比賽出場38分鐘以上中鋒或者大前鋒的球隊，或者首發內線搭檔無法讓人放心地出場35分鐘左右的球隊，才會備齊四個內線：當年勒布朗的騎士、06-07賽季的馬刺和07-08/09-10賽季的凱爾特熱就出現了類似情況——用第四內線來補充首發內線的不足。 2、球隊的球員在向“小個”發展——就像小前鋒改打大前鋒。很顯著的例子就是在上賽季的熱火和雷霆。但在過去的十多年裡，球隊都是用小個陣容來彌補球隊缺少“第四內線”這個弱點的。但同時，一些球隊也壓根不用擔心類似的問題： 05-06賽季和07-08賽季的活塞，還有09-10賽季的湖人隊，因為他們從來不用所謂的“小個陣容”，但他們卻非常依賴三個傳統內線球員在中鋒和大前鋒之間的輪換。阿西克的出走之所以讓公牛如此悲痛，正是因為他們球隊陣容無法完成上述的兩種解決方案中的哪怕一種。雖然布澤爾曾經是“最佳防守陣容”的一員，但他在防守擋拆時腳步卻經常跟不上對方球員，而且公牛的教練錫伯度也在關鍵時刻不那麼信任布澤爾。雖然教練非常信任諾阿，但諾阿在進攻端上略顯愚鈍，所以錫伯度在球隊需要得分時經常將他放在場下。因此，教練經常在第四節時讓諾阿和布澤爾防守對方陣中的內線殺器，讓阿西克或者吉布森出場專心呵護籃板。公牛上賽季的每100回合丟分在95分左右，而他們的前場籃板率高達32%，這兩項數據都排在聯盟的TOP3。在過去兩個賽季中，他們和凱爾特人一直都是東部防守最好的兩隻球隊。他們的防守和進攻籃板因為阿西克和吉布森的同時存在而變得異常出色。這兩位板凳球員讓公牛的防守效率奇高，每100回合僅僅讓讓對手得到86分，而前場籃板率也達到了令人震精的35%！而這兩項資料絕對可以排在聯盟歷史的前列，而他們整個賽季的防守表現也相當穩定。阿西克的表現完全超越了公牛對他的預期，但他卻離別在即。球隊的新成員默罕默德雖然可以充當球隊的第四內線，但他的防守卻比漏勺還漏勺。雖然拉德馬諾維奇可以在小個陣容中很好地充當大前鋒這一角色，但他卻需要提高自己的速度，並且要時刻準備著面對這個夏天已經補強了很多的邁阿密。在2010-11賽季初期，因為諾阿和布澤爾的相繼受傷，錫伯度不得不讓羅爾-鄧更多地留在大前鋒的位置上，這一變陣也收到了很好的效果，這也可能成為了公牛放棄阿西克的原因。在錫伯度看來，公牛的後衛和側翼球員的輪換，即使相比于2011年季候賽的邁阿密來說也略顯稚嫩。沃特森和羅斯的後場組合在身高上稍顯劣勢；雖然科沃爾的遠投可以為球隊進攻拉開空間，但是他的防守確實不敢讓人恭維；雖然布魯爾是一個全能的防守球員（可以防守後場球員和小前鋒三個位置），而且也是洛爾-鄧的出色替補，但是他的遠投卻不那麼穩定；雖然鄧是一個鐵人，但鐵人也需要休息，所以錫伯度很難讓鄧和布魯爾同時出現在球場上。上賽季將漢密爾頓招致麾下對公牛的側翼深度是很好的補充，但他卻很容易受傷，讓公牛很難去磨合更多的陣容組合。理論上來說，公牛可以用挖掘球隊內部深度和簽約新球員的方式將阿西克離去的副作用減少到最小。但是“理論上來說”並不一定能成為現實。辛裡奇和貝裡內利看起來都像是均衡型的後衛而非純粹的得分後衛，所以對傑米-巴特勒的使用就尤為關鍵了。簽下辛裡奇更多的是填補沃特森走後留下的空缺。貝裡內利是一個不錯的三分手，而且有創造進攻機會的能力和還說得過去的傳球能力，這些對對方都有不小的威脅（你也完全可以信任他，讓他運球到前場直接找機會擋拆跳投）。辛裡奇現在的投籃已經步入從前那樣穩定，貝裡內利的防守又不那麼讓人放心，漢密爾頓隨著年齡的增大也越來越容易受傷（ps：公牛的後場怎麼這麼多毛病）……雖然巴特勒在拉斯維加斯的夏季聯賽表現非常出色，但我們還無法預知他在nba賽場上的表現，雖然他很有可能成為羅爾-鄧的替補。在不能確定受傷的羅斯和鄧在下賽季何時可以複出的情況下，總的來說，公牛的陣容在休賽期確實被削弱了，但他們已經沒有薪金空間去補強球隊了。雖然他們可以特赦布澤爾，來緩解前場陣容的擁擠。在2013-14賽季，如果不和漢密爾頓續簽合同，如果不留下受限制自由球員吉布森，公牛的薪金也將達到6300萬美刀——他們所交的奢侈稅夠簽下一個全額中產了。對火箭來說，他們付出的代價可能有一些大，但這也僅僅是對阿西克不瞭解的人才會這麼想。76人將在下賽季付給斯賓塞-霍伊斯和誇梅-布朗950萬的薪水——和白拿工資的人不同，阿西克至少有兩個強項：防守和籃板。他雖然不能再攻防兩端同時為球隊提供幫助，但作為一個不僅僅可以在內線佔據空間的大個子，阿西克的合同已經非常值了。休斯頓的薪金空間非常大，所以他們也不在乎多給阿西克的那一點錢。火箭在2013-14賽季的保障性合同總額將只有2400萬美元，（這還不包括白菜價的新秀合同選項——派翠克 -帕森斯、馬庫斯-莫里斯和錢德勒-帕森斯）。即使加上剛剛簽約的阿西克和林書豪，他們2012-13賽季的合同總額僅僅為4900萬美元，他們還有900萬美元的薪金空間。包括凱文 -馬丁的潛在可交易合同，和一大把第一年或者第二年的新秀合同，他們完全可以在交易霍華德時同時吃進傑森-理查森和葛籣-大衛斯，並且接納杜洪或者昆汀-理查森也絕非難事（妥妥的休斯頓魔術隊）。看來，霍華德的交易鬧劇仍然不會停止。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 118.169.242.48