[外電] Real GM關於公牛選秀的文章

看板ChicagoBulls (芝加哥公牛)作者AhUtopian (It's my Life)時間12年前 (2013/07/09 23:24)推噓0(0推 0噓 0→)

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概要：作者分析了2003年Paxson掌權以來以來的公牛選秀，然後去分析了每次選秀，公牛的順位能選到的球員，還有之後的順位有無更好的選擇，結果是我們有60%的選秀都能選到那個順位所能選到的最好的三名球員之一；當然作者自己設定了一些規則，他也排除選完才交易來的選秀、跟交易出去的回報。 NBA Draft: Chicago Bulls Arguably The Best Drafting Team in the NBA Since 2007: [We touched base on this before last year and another good post recently about how great the Bulls are at drafting. The reality is that if you compare each team, the Bulls depending on how Teague turns out this season are arguably the best drafting team since 2007. Here is this recent post on another site that adds to this] Chicago Bulls - Reviewing the Success Rate of the Bulls in the Draft A lot has been made out about how good John Paxson and Gar Forman are at drafting. It’s obvious that they have made some really good picks, but I thought it’d be interesting to go back and review exactly how good their picks actually are. The format I created to do this was to highlight what pick the Bulls had and who they selected at that pick. Then I listed of ALL the better players that were drafted after that pick. Before we review the picks, here are my ground rules: Rules: 1. Hindsight IS NOT 50/50. It is irrelevant that scouts had Tyrus Thomas pegged as a top 5 pick and Paul Millsap as a second round pick. The goal is to draft the best player possible, regardless of draft stock. Results are all that matter. No excuses. 2.If a player drafted after a Bulls pick is debatably better, but not clearly better, he will not be counted as a better prospect. For example, guys like Igoudala or Josh Smith will not be counted as better players than Deng. Another example is Sefolosha and Ronnie Brewer. It’s too close to call, and both players have had moments of looking superior. Conversely, I will try to control my own personal bias as much as possible. I.E. I thought Ben Gordon was more valuable to the Bulls than Luol Deng, but Deng clearly has better value and respect around the league and therefore will be considered a better player than Gordon. 3. Reputation matters. Brandon Roy, despite having to retire early, will be considered a miss since for several years he was an All-Star caliber player and had enormous trade value. 4. Player position doesn’t matter. I.E. Having Rose already on the roster doesn’t excuse the Bulls from not drafting Jrue Holiday. 5. Although Mirotic looks like a great pick, he will not be taken into consideration since his rating is TBD. By the same token, Teague, despite looking like a bad pick will also not be taken into consideration since he is still really early in his career. 6. No “what ifs”. I believe that Ben Gordon would have had a much more successful career had he stayed in Chicago. But he didn’t. So it doesn’t matter. 7. Picks made specifically for another team will not be considered (I.E. Aldridge, Bonner, Vroman, etc) Now let’s review the picks: 2003: Kirk Hinrich (7th Pick) Better Picks: David West (18), Josh Howard (29) Comments: Some will disagree about Howard. Though his prime was short, his peak value was higher than Hinrich’s. Mario Austin (36th Pick) Misses: Steve Blake (37), Willie Green (41), Zaza Pachulia (42), Keith Bogans (43), Matt Bonner (45), Mo Williams (47), Kyle Korver (51) 2004: Ben Gordon (3rd Pick) Better Players After Him: Deng (7), Andre Igoudala (9), Al Jefferson (15), Josh Smith (17), Kevin Martin (26) Comments: Though Gordon had an incredibly successful rookie campaign and a memorable career in Chicago, all of these players listed afterwards have gone on to have better careers and have better trade value. Luol Deng (7th Pick) Better Players After Him: Al Jefferson Chris Duhon (39th Pick) Better Players: Trevor Ariza (44) 2005: No Picks 2006: Tyrus Thomas (via trade for 2nd pick) Better Players: LaMarcus Aldridge (2), Brandon Roye (6), Randy Foy (7), Rudy Gay (8), JJ Redick (11), Rajon Rondo (21), Kyle Lowry (24), Paul Millsap (47) , Thabo Sefolosha (13th Pick) Better Players: Rajon Rondo (21), Kyle Lowry (24), Paul Millsap (47) 2007: Joakim Noah (9th Pick) Better Players: None Aaron Gray (49th pick), JamesOn Curry (51st Pick) Better Players: Ramon Sessions (55) 2008: Derrick Rose (1st Pick) Better Players: None Comments: Bulls deserve credit for this, as Rose really wasn’t the clear cut first pick. Had Beasley been selected it could have set the franchise back a decade. Omer Asik (36th Pick via trade) Better Players: None 2009: James Johnson (16th Pick) Better Players: Jrue Holiday (17), Ty Lawson (18), Jeff Teague (19), Darren Collison (21), BJ Mullens (24), Roddy Beaubois (25), Taj Gibson (26), DeJuan Blair (37), Marcus Thornton (43), Chase Budinger (44), Danny Green (46) Taj Gibson (26th Pick) Better Players: Marcus Thornton (43) 2009: Jimmy Butler (30th Pick) Better Players: Chandler Parsons (38th Pick) Comments: Many will likely disagree with this, and this may change by next season, but Parsons had a statistically better year than Butler and has been in the rotation much longer. Statistics: Obviously the goal is to get the best player at your pick, however, generally I think if you pick one of the top 3 best players at your pick then you’ve drafted successfully. So let’s take a look. Bulls Drafted Best Player Available: 13% Bulls Drafted Top 3 Player: 60% Drafted an All-Star: 20% Number of All-Stars They Missed: 5 (David West, LaMarcus Aldridge, Brandon Roy, Rajon Rondo, Jrue Holiday Player Is Still in the League: 87% Success Rate (top 3 best player) in 1st Round: 60% Success Rate in 2nd Round:60% Conclusions: Apart from Tyrus Thomas and James Johnson, the Bulls have drafted superbly. Drafting is clearly this front-office’s number one strength, which in my opinion is why they should hold on to the Charlotte Bobcat’s pick. Since the Bulls haven’t shown great skill in trades for established players and in Free-Agency, they probably should focus even more on trading and buying draft picks whenever the opportunity arises. While it’s clear that the Bulls draft incredibly well, it would be interesting to see where exactly they rank amongst the rest of the league. If I get a chance, I’d actually like to do this same thing for all the other teams in the league during this time span to see how other teams rank. The one thing that doesn’t line up, however, is that many teams have management changes since 2003. Credit: HomoSapien on RealGM -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 124.109.115.225