[外電] Extension Candidate: Jimmy Butler
看板ChicagoBulls (芝加哥 公牛)作者AhUtopian (It's my Life)時間11年前 (2014/08/26 02:53)推噓2(2推 0噓 1→)留言3則, 2人參與討論串1/1
Extension Candidate: Jimmy Butler
大意:
這篇在談Jimmy將要來的提早延長合約談判,談到Jimmy上季的表現,Jimmy跟Gibson這
兩個case的比較,然後公牛可能的選項。
http://www.hoopsrumors.com/2014/08/extension-candidate-butler.html
The Bulls scored a major coup when they drafted Jimmy Butler 30th overall
in 2011. A team that compiled the best record in the league in the
previous season, as the Bulls did, isn’t supposed to be able to find a
starting-caliber player in the draft. That’s exactly what Chicago has, and
then some, in Butler, who became a full-time starter just last season but
had already established himself as a future building block the year before,
when he started 20 regular season games and all 12 playoff games for an
ailing Luol Deng. Now the task for GM Gar Forman and his staff is to keep
that building block in place and ensure the embodiment of that draft-night
success from three years ago doesn’t turn into either an overpaid burden
for Chicago or, perhaps even worse, a former Bull.
A report from last autumn indicated that the Bulls were higher on retaining
Butler for the long term than they were on Deng, and that was born out when
the team traded Deng to the Cavs at midseason. Chicago isn’t alone in its
affection for the 24-year-old Butler, as there was reportedly wide belief
that the Wolves would ask for Butler as part of Kevin Love trade talks with
the Bulls. Love appears safely on his way to the Cavs, but there’s little
doubt that other teams would relish the chance to snatch Butler away.
Butler endured a tough shooting season on a Bulls team that struggled
mightily to score once Derrick Rose went down with yet another injury. The
subtraction of Deng didn’t help matters, either, allowing perimeter
defenses to focus more keenly on stopping Butler, Chicago’s remaining wing
threat. Butler’s three-point shooting percentage dropped from 38.1% in
2012/13 to 28.3% last year, even as he nearly tripled his number of
attempted treys per contest. His shooting percentage from the floor as a
whole dropped from 46.7% to 39.7%, reflective of his greater focus on
three-pointers.
The Bulls asked Butler to do much more this past season than he’d ever done
in the league, and his efficiency dropped as a result, with his PER sinking
from 15.2 in his second season to 13.5 in year three. Still, it would have
been difficult for just about any player to have been effective offensively
on last year’s Bulls, one of just four teams in the league to score fewer
than a point per possession in 2013/14, according to NBA.com. Butler isn’t
capable of single-handedly carrying a scoring attack, at least not yet, but
he’s defined himself as a key part of one of the most well-coordinated
defenses in league history. The Bulls gave up 1.5 points fewer points per
100 possessions when Butler played, as NBA.com shows, and while Butler alone
didn’t influence that statistic, Chicago has been at least slightly better
defensively when he’s played in each of his three seasons with the club.
The Bulls were also more effective defensively with Taj Gibson on the floor
in each of his first three seasons in the league, which was no doubt on the
minds of Forman and company when they reached a deal with Gibson on a
four-year, $33MM rookie scale extension two years ago. It stands as an
example of the team’s willingness to lock up a player who’s a mainstay but
not quite a star, a description that also fits Butler, but there are
differences between the two cases. Gibson came off the bench at a position
that the highly paid Carlos Boozer occupied, while Butler is a starter on the
wing, where the Bulls are thin. Butler is also a more integral part of
Chicago’s offense than Gibson had been when he signed his extension. Those
factors combined with rising salary cap projections for years to come make
it unlikely that Butler will settle for salaries anywhere in the
neighborhood of what Gibson is making.
It appears as though Chicago would like to keep Butler around, as I surmised
last month when I predicted that the Bulls and the Happy Walters client
would come to terms on a four-year, $42MM extension. That’s $9MM more than
Gibson saw, but there’d still be a decent chance that it would end up a
relative bargain for the Bulls, particularly if the deal is backloaded.
Chicago already has about $58.6MM in commitments for 2015/16 and $43.8MM for
2015/16, so creating enough wiggle room as possible beneath the tax
threshold will be important as the team attempts to contend in the next few
years.
There’s a case to be made that the Bulls should hold off on an extension
to see whether Butler’s offensive efficiency improves with Rose back in the
lineup. Butler and Rose have only shared the floor for 273 total minutes
over their careers, so surely Chicago is curious to see how they mesh in
more significant time together. That question mark shouldn’t dissuade the
Bulls from committing to a reasonable extension this offseason, lest
Butler’s negotiating power increase commensurate with his continually
expanding role on the team. Restricted free agency proved more kind this
year to Gordon Hayward and Chandler Parsons, a pair of wing players on the
market’s second tier, than it has for point guard Eric Bledsoe and big man
Greg Monroe, seemingly more attractive options. That would bode well for
Butler, even though there are few certainties in restricted free agency, as
this summer’s surprises have shown.
It’s quite a risk in today’s NBA for a team to commit an average of more
than $10MM a year to a swingman who’s just a 30.9% three-point shooter,
but for the Bulls, it appears worth it to do so with Butler. Chicago’s
primary focus is on defense, anyway, where Butler has proven valuable, and
Gibson’s blossoming offensive game is evidence that coach Tom Thibodeau and
his staff are adept at continually developing players well into their
careers. Butler needs to improve for the Bulls to have reaped a bargain with
such an investment, but there’s plenty of evidence to suggest he’ll do
just that.
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