Top 20 Prospects: Chicago Cubs (1/23/2009)

看板Cubs作者abc12812時間17年前 (2009/01/24 13:23)推噓4(4推 0噓 1→)

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Summary The Cubs enter 2009 with a Minor League system diminished in both depth and quality. While Vitters is solid as the crown jewel, there are decidedly few impact prospects floating around the organization, particularly at the upper-levels. Keeping in line with the theme the Cubs are still rumored to be interested in Jake Peavy -- a target that would cost at least Vitters and likely 3-4 young players. While the upper-minors are relatively bare, the Cubs have several intriguing young infielders, including Matt Cerda, Starlin Castro, Junior Lake, Joel Altagracia and Carlos Henry. With all the primary pieces in place at the Major League level, the Cubs have time to build their system up over the next few seasons. Unfortunately, they'll need to do a better job in the Rule 4 Amateur Draft than they have in recent years. 2008's class looks to be fairly solid, with seven of the draftees making our Top 20. This year will give us a much better idea as to the players' various ceilings. =============================================================================== 1. Josh Vitters | Stats | Depot Grade: A- 6-3 / 210 | Age - 19 | 3B | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2007 (R1) | Cypress HS (CA) Floor: Below-AVG 3B | Ceiling: All-star 3B | Projection: Above-AVG 3B Notes: Vitters is an advanced teen bat who projects to plus-hitting and plus-power. His best assets at the plate are his bat speed and plus-hands which allow him to square-up consistently and permit the ball to travel deep into his stance (which in turn has led to advanced pitch-ID for his age). He commands the strikezone well. Defensively he is progressing at third base and could eventually be average. He has plenty of arm for the left-side. He should reach Daytona at some point in 2009, and could be Major League-ready as early as 2011 if all goes well. 2. Jeff Samardzija | Stats | Depot Grade: B+ 6-5 / 220 | Age - 23 | RHP | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2006 (R5) | University of Notre Dame Floor: Bullpen | Ceiling: Front-end Starter | Projection: #3 Starter Notes: Samardzija’s fastball is a heavy, mid-90s offering and his wipeout slider flashes plus-plus (he can back-door it or use it as a true “ swing-and-miss” pitch). After a schizophrenic MiL career, “The Shark” broke through in the Cubs bullpen where his fastball/slider combo was effective right away. While he has the tools to succeed in a Major League pen right now, the Cubs could look to put his power stuff back in a starting role (which would likely mean some time down in Iowa to continue to work on his fringy changeup and command). Despite up-and-down numbers over the past two seasons, there is reason to believe he can be successful in a rotation. He was routinely much stronger the second time through the order in the minors and did a solid job of maintaining his velocity. 3. Andrew Cashner | Stats | Depot Grade: B 6-6 / 185 | Age - 22 | RHP | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2008 (R1) | Texas Christian University Floor: AAAA | Ceiling: Front-end Starter | Projection: Late-inning Relief Notes: Cashner, like Samardzija, has potential front-end stuff. His fastball sits in the mid- to upper-90s and his power slider is a mid-80s offering with hard, late break (though it’s still inconsistent). The former Horned Frog has a big frame, providing durability but also a challenge in repeating his release point (particularly with his secondary stuff). Right now, Cashner’s largest hurdles for staying in a rotation are command and a viable third offering. His changeup is an okay “show me” pitch, but it’s still raw and he shows just fringy feel for it. He profiles better as a late-inning power arm, but the Cubs will undoubtedly give him every chance to show he can stick as a starter. He should get a shot at AA Tennessee in 2009. 4. Ryan Flaherty | Stats | Depot Grade: B 6-3 / 200 | Age - 22 | 3B | B/T - L/R | Drafted - 2008 (R1s) | Vanderbilt University Floor: AAAA | Ceiling: Above-AVG 2B | Projection: AVG 2B Notes: Flaherty was a shortstop at Vanderbilt and at Short-season Boise, but his range profiles better at second base. He shows solid footwork around the bag and does a fine job setting himself up and getting his feet under him on his throws to first. At the plate Flaherty has an advanced approach and command of the strikezone. While he has a solid frame, he only projects to fringe-average power as his bat speed is average. He squares-up well and should move quickly, profiling as a #2 hitter with solid on-base skills. He could skip right to HiA Daytona in 2009. 5. Lee Hak-Ju | Stats - N/A | Depot Grade: B- 6-2 / 175 | Age - 17 | SS | B/T - L/R | Signed - 2008 | South Korea Floor: AAAA | Ceiling: Above-AVG SS | Projection: AVG SS Notes: Lee has raw offensive tools but already smooth, professional movements in the field. He ranges well to both sides and handles himself well around the bag. His arm action is easy with above-average arm-strength from the left side. Offensively, Lee’s approach is raw but he already shows solid hand/eye coordination and an ability to square-up and spray to all fields. Room in his solid frame makes it easy to project added strength and potential average power. He moves so well in the field that some added size shouldn’t prevent him from sticking at short. He’s a burner on the bases. 6. Matt Cerda | Stats | Depot Grade: B- 5-9 / 165 | Age - 18 | 2B/C | B/T - L/R | Drafted - 2008 (R4) | Oceanside HS (CA) Floor: AAAA | Ceiling: Above-AVG 2B | Projection: AVG 2B Notes: Cerda is a bat-first second-baseman. He has a compact swing and keeps a short path to and through the ball. He could develop average power down the line off the strength of his bat-speed. Though young, he already shows a solid approach and a good understanding of the strikezone. He logged some time behind the plate in the Rookie Arizona League, though he has lots of work to do if he’s to stay back there. He moves pretty well but has fringy catch-and-throw skills (5/21 caught stealing) and needs to improve as a receiver. 7. Starlin Castro | Stats | Depot Grade: B- 6-1 / 160 | Age - 18 | 2B/SS | B/T - R/R | Signed - 2006 | Dominican Republic Floor: Non-prospect | Ceiling: Above-AVG SS | Projection: AVG SS Notes: Castro blends a solid approach with advanced pitch-ID for his age. Plus hand/eye coordination helps him to consistently find the ball with the bat, though he needs to improve on using the whole field. In the field he showed plus-range to both sides and a strong arm from short. There is good projection in his frame and he could end up anywhere in the infield depending on how much he fills out and how much his bat develops. 8. Junior Lake | Stats | Depot Grade: B- 6-3 / 175 | Age - 18 | SS | B/T - R/R | Signed - 2007 | Dominican Republic Floor: Non-prospect | Ceiling: Above-AVG 3B | Projection: AVG 3B Notes: Lake joined-up with Castro in the Rookie AZL to form one of the more interesting young infield tandems in the Minors. With a larger frame than Castro, and a little more leverage in his swing, Lake looks to potentially profile best at the hot corner. His approach and strikezone command are still a bit raw, but he’s already squaring-up regularly with solid pop. In the field, his soft hands and a strong arm play well at third. Since he’s currently behind Castro in developing his approach, it could take an extra season or so for him to truly breakout. Both give Cubs fans something interesting to keep tabs on in a relatively unexciting system. 9. Jay Jackson | Stats | Depot Grade: C+ 6-1 / 195 | Age - 21 | RHP | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2008 (R9) | Furman University Floor: AAAA | Ceiling: Mid-rotation Starter | Projection: #4 Starter Notes: Already a trendy pick on many prospect lists, Jackson missed the “B-” cut primarily because of his command and some inconsistencies in his secondary offerings. It’s easy to get excited about the young righty, however, and he was a fairly easy choice for us as our 2009 breakout candidate. Jackson sits in the low-90s with his fastball and compliments it with a solid slider with some tilt and a hard curveball with tight, late break. His changeup is raw, but he shows a good feel for the pitch and has demonstrated an understanding of how and when to use it. He has the feel and durability to stick as starter and his athleticism and advanced body control should help him to effectively tweak his mechanics when necessary. 10. Rhee Dae-Eun | Stats | Depot Grade: C+ 6-2 / 190 | Age - 19 | RHP | B/T - L/R | Signed - 2007 | South Korea Floor: AAAA | Ceiling: Mid-rotation | Projection: #4 Starter Notes: Rhee’s best offering is an upper-70s changeup with plus-tumble and solid arm action. He pairs the above-average offering with a fastball sitting in the low- to mid-90s. Though inconsistent, his curve has the makings of a solid third offering and flashes tight, late break – it could be an average offering down the line. Rhee has a solid, durable frame with some room still to add some strength and perhaps velocity. He was impressive in limited action at Peoria and showed impressive pitchability for a teenager. 11. Aaron Shafer | Stats | Depot Grade: C+ 6-5 / 185 | Age - 22 | RHP | B/T - L/R | Drafted - 2008 (R2) | Wichita State University Floor: Bullpen | Ceiling: Mid-rotation | Projection: #5 Starter Notes: Shafer was selected in the second round of this past Rule 4 Amateur Draft. A pitchability arm, Shafer shows plus-command with his upper-80s fastball, upper-70s curveball and a fringy mid- to upper-70s changeup. After recouping from an elbow injury, Shafer saw a dip in his velocity while expressing no lingering pain. The Cubs hope to see his velocity back in 2009, where he’ll likely tackle the LoA Midwest League. His command is strong enough for him to get buy even if his velocity never fully returns. While he has shown a solid feel for the changeup, he’ll work to use it more effectively in 2009. 12. Dan McDaniel | Stats | Depot Grade: C+ 6-3 / 220 | Age - 20 | RHP | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2008 (R13) | Chabot JC (CA) Floor: AAAA | Ceiling: Mid-rotation | Projection: Late-inning Relief Notes: McDaniel blew away hitters in the Short-season Northwest League of the strength of an above-average two-pitch mix. His fastball sits in the low- to mid-90s and his curve flashes above-average depth. McDaniel projects well as a starter, given his arsenal, sturdy frame and clean mechanics. The bullpen would be a solid fallback given the strength of his fastball/curveball, but a mid-rotation ceiling is there He’ll need to improve his endurance and work to tighten-up his changeup and command across the board. 13. Welington Castillo | Stats | Depot Grade: C+ 6-0 / 200 | Age - 21 | C | B/T - R/R | Signed - 2004 | Dominican Republic Floor: AAAA | Ceiling: AVG C | Projection: Below-AVG C Notes: Castillo had a solid season split between HiA Daytona, AA Tennessee and AAA Iowa (though his BABIP was twenty-points above his career average).While he has improved his approach and command of the strikezone, Castillo’s calling card is his defense. An advanced catch-and-throw backstop, Castillo threw-out over 40% of attempted base-stealers in 2008. There’s a little leverage in his swing, though he still has yet to see that potential power manifest. If his bat doesn’t fully emerge, he profiles best as defense-first back-up catcher. He was noticeably more effective against left-handed pitching in 2008, batting 170-points higher and slugging around 250-points higher than he did against righties. 14. Kevin Hart | Stats | Depot Grade: C+ 6-4 / 215 | Age - 26 | RHP | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2004 (R11) | University of Maryland Floor: Bullpen | Ceiling: Back-end Starter | Projection: Middle-relief Notes: Hart was unimpressive throwing out of the Cubs’s pen in 2008, but the stuff is there for him to be a contributor at the ML-level. His fastball is an above-average offering, sitting in the low- to mid-90s with a bit of late life. He shows good feel for his offspeed but doesn’t command it particularly well, often times leaving it up and catching too much of the plate. He uses a solid-average cut-fastball as a weapon against lefties and he can spin a fringy curveball that really serves as nothing more than a “ change-of-pace” pitch. He has a strong, durable frame and the makings of a back-end arsenal, though there’s limited room in the Cubbies’s rotation. Most likely, he’s in the pen to stay. 15. Jeff Beliveau | Stats | Depot Grade: C+ 6-1 / 200 | Age - 21 | LHP | B/T - L/L | Drafted - 2008 (R18) | Florida Atlantic University Floor: AAAA | Ceiling: Mid-rotation Starter | Projection: Middle-relief Notes: Beliveau’s arsenal is anchored by a low-90s fastball with plus- life. In fact, he gets so much late action that he has trouble consistently commanding the pitch, particularly in the zone. His curveball is a solid “ chase” pitch with tight, late break, most effective when he buries it. His change is still raw and serves merely as a “show me” pitch. While his raw tools show some room for projection, his command issues limit his upside. He’ ll likely start off ’09 in LoA Peoria where he’ll work to improve upon his pitchability. 16. Tyler Colvin | Stats | Depot Grade: C+ 6-3 / 200 | Age - 23 | OF | B/T - L/L | Drafted - 2006 (R1) | Clemson University Floor: AAAA | Ceiling: AVG CF | Projection: 4th OF Notes: Colvin is a toolbox with good projection, despite not being able to put everything together just yet. He has a solid idea of the strikezone and is proficient at working himself into hitter’s counts (though he saw a little more success hitting earlier on in the count). In his second shot at the Southern League Colvin saw an increase in his walk rate, though he still strikes out too often. If he can improve his contact rate and refine his approach (using his strikezone command to his advantage) he could provide solid value as an above-average defender with on-base skills. He could hit for average power, though it’s unlikely he reaches that ceiling without improving his contact rate. Colvin will try again for his breakout in 2009. 17. Tony Thomas | Stats | Depot Grade: C+ 5-10 / 180 | Age - 22 | 2B | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2007 (R3) | Florida State University Floor: AAAA | Ceiling: AVG 2B | Projection: Below-AVG 2B Notes: The former Seminole, a bat-first second-baseman with an advanced approach, took a step backwards in HiA Daytona. After a solid April, Thomas struggled to get into any sort of groove, striking out around once every 3.8 ABs the rest of the way out. It was tough to put a finger exactly what was leading to Thomas’s struggles. His swing was its normal compact self, keeping a short path to the ball. The second-baseman will likely get a bump to Tennessee in 2009 where he’ll work to get back on the fast-track. With fringe-average range in the field, Thomas’s value will reside primarily in his bat and advanced base-running. He lacks the range for shortstop and the arm for third, making him fringy as a potential utility guy. 18. Steve Clevenger | Stats | Depot Grade: C+ 6-0 / 185 | Age - 22 | C | B/T - L/R | Drafted - 2006 (R7) | Chipola JC (FL) Floor: AAAA | Ceiling: AVG C | Projection: Below-AVG C Notes: Clevenger can loosely be described as the negative of Castillo, building value with his bat and working to improve his catch-and-throw skills. At the plate, Clevenger shows above-average command of the strikezone and squares-up regularly. He has some leverage in his swing and could develop solid-average gap-to-gap power. Defensively, he is adequate side-to-side and is improving his transfers. His arm is serviceable in strength and accuracy – he threw out 30% of attempted runners and will look to improve upon that as he cleans-up his transfer and release. 19. Esmailin Caridad | Stats | Depot Grade: C 5-10 / 195 | Age - 25 | RHP | B/T - R/R | Signed - 2008 | Dominican Republic Floor: Bullpen | Ceiling: Back-end Starter | Projection: Middle-relief Notes: The 25-year old Dominican enjoyed some success in his first pro season, split between HiA Daytona and AA Tennessee. His fastball sits in the low-90s with average arm-side run. He commands his secondary stuff well, but it’s not overpowering. He shows feel for his changeup and curveball but both will likely top-out as average offerings. In addition to an unspectacular arsenal, Caridad has a smallish frame, giving rise to durability questions if he’s to remain a starter. To his credit, he showed an aggressive approach on the mound, pounding the strikezone with all of his offerings. The Cubs will give him a chance to remain in a rotation, but the bullpen may ultimately be a better fit. 20. Alex Maestri | Stats | Depot Grade: C 6-1 / 180 | Age - 23 | RHP | B/T - R/R | Signed - 2006 | Italy Floor: AAAA | Ceiling: Back-end Starter | Projection: Middle-relief Notes: Maestri handled himself well in his first full season as a starter, though he was a bit old for the HiA Florida State League. While the switch to starting will slow his progress a bit, the Italian righty has a legit shot at three average or better Major League pitches – fastball, slider and changeup. He was able to maintain his stuff the second time through the order, but only made it out of the fifth inning a handful of times. He’ll likely start 2009 at AA Tennessee where he’ll continue to work on his command and endurance. He’ll also need to improve his changeup, which is below-average at this point. =============================================================================== 10 More Prospects to Watch Micah Hoffpauir Larry Suarez Darwin Barney Ryan Acosta Chris Carpenter Joel Altagracia Justin Bristow Logan Watkins Robert Hernandez Kyler Burke Organizational Leaders: Hitting – Josh Vitters Power – Josh Vitters Defense – Luis Flores RHSP – Keff Samardzija LHSP – Jeff Beliveau Future RP – Andrew Cashner 2009 Breakout Candidates: Pitcher – Jay Jackson Hitter – Starlin Castro Bounce-back Candidate: Tony Thomas -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.112.5.3