[情報] Prospect Instinct 2012 | Matt Szczur
Matt Szczur was drafted by the Chicago Cubs in the fifth round after a
stellar two sport career at Villanova where he started on both the Gridiron
and the Diamond. His accolades run from offensive player of the year in
football to one of the top career averages at Villanova for baseball. Enough
of an athlete that there was a consideration of him being a professional two
sport player.
It took just $100,000 to get Szczur signed and started in 2010 with the Cubs
because of his desire to also enter the NFL Draft. But the Cubs added a
$1.4mm option for him if he decided to walk away from football to concentrate
on baseball. After a strong start to his career, where he hit
.347/.414./.465, Szczur decided to take the Cubs up on their offer and sign
the Baseball Only Bonus.
Szczur’s premium athleticism and his solid debut put a player dead on the
radar into the Top 100 on our Baseball Instinct 360:
82°. Matt Szczur, OF, Cubs, 7/20/1989 – Szczur is one of the top athletes
in the Cubs’ system. As an NFL hopeful, he was was often compared to Brian
Westbrook for his speed and running ability, so we’re talking high end. He’
s still settling into baseball full time but the initial production has been
good and he projects as a .290 hitter with double digit home run power and
25+ SB speed. Will start 2012 in the FSL. ETA 2014.
Let’s take a deeper look at the tools and get a idea of what to expect in
2012 and into the future for Szczur and Cubs.
The Bat
With the bat, Szczur is still raw in his approach at the plate. But he has a
high level contact ability and short stroke from the right side. He hit .314
in Peoria in 2011 with a 9.4% K rate. The walk rate of 7.0% was decent and a
sign that he could develop the needed plate discipline. He has yet to turn
his plus plus speed into an elite skill on base, having stole 19 bases in
2011. But the speed is there.
A move to High-A Daytona had Szczur’s AVG drop to just .260 but it was
primarily driven by a low BABIP at .270. A number that will correct itself. A
good sign was a jump in IsoP from Low-A to High-A from .117 to .150. The
power is coming around.
The Glove
With his plus plus speed, Szczur covers a lot of centerfield ground and
projects as a plus defender with a hard nosed game.
He’s worked hard at strengthening his arm now that he’s focusing on
baseball and it’s come up to an average tool.
If he’s able to remain healthy he should be an above average CF at the major
league level.
Our Instinct
I projected Szczur heading back to the FSL to start the 2012 season with the
hope that the Cubs would allow him to develop enough at the lower levels
before really pressing onto the fast track, but he’s already been reassigned
to Double-A. I think he’s up for the challenge, but expect some struggles as
he adjusts.
He still needs to refine his tools into skills. His speed can be elite in the
40 SB range if he’s given enough time, but chances are that he’s being
rushed and living on sheer ability will limit his effectiveness in the
basepaths.
He’s going to continue to develop more power and as long as his approach
with the bat remains the same he should hit for average. If he’s given the
time to learn how to work pitchers into counts where he can utilize the raw
power he’s developing he has 20 HR upside. But more than likely will settle
somewhere closer to cracking double digits with a lot of speed induced extra
bases.
He may now be on track to make his debut in 2013 some time which will make
Brett Jackson’s window in CF a small one.
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