[情報] 2013 ZiPS Projections – Chicago Cubs

看板Cubs作者MattSzczur (凱薩大帝)時間13年前 (2013/01/06 01:17)推噓0(0推 0噓 0→)

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Batters The Cubs are projected by ZiPS to have, in shortstop Starlin Castro and first baseman Anthony Rizzo, to have a pair of basically All Star-type players who are also just 23 years old. Those are good kinds of players to have — especially for a team that isn’t likely to be very competitive this season, but has the resources to invest in free agents if and when such a thing is called for in the near future. The rest of the starting lineup — besides human-shaped albatross Alfonso Soriano, that is — is a combination of decent organizational products (Darwin Barney, Wellington Castillo) and low-risk free agents (David DeJesus, Nate Schierholtz) acquired since the arrival of Theo Epstein et al. Pitchers In Matt Garza, Jeff Samardzija, and recent signing Edwin Jackson, Chicago has a perfectly reputable triumvirate atop its starting rotation — one that ZiPS regards as worth something like nine wins. Before the Cubs signed Scott Feldman, our Dave Cameron had hailed — or, at least something close to hailed — him (i.e. Feldman) as “one of the best buys on the market.” His innings projection reflects the swing role he filled in Texas, which saw him make 45 starts and 24 relief appearances, for example, over the last three seasons. ZiPS is rather optimistic about the bullpen — and, specifically, about Japanese right-hander Kyuji Fujikawa, who signed a two-year, $9.5 million deal with the Cubs this offseason. Included here is also a projection for Kerry Wood — just for curiosity value, as Szymborski does for all notable, newly retired players. Bench/Prospects Despite a major-league debut that saw him strike out in 41.5% of his 142 plate appearances, outfielder Brett Jackson (who enters his age-24 season) still receives a rather optimistic projection here, at 2.3 WAR. Futhermore, ZiPS regards second baseman Logan Watkins, shortstop Junior Lake, and outfielder Matt Szczur — though none of them is likely to break camp with the major-league team — as better than replacement-level. Szczur and Watkins finished first and third, respectively, among all prospect-age hitters in the Arizona Fall League by regressed batting. There’s also some depth on the pitching side, too: both Scott Baker (signed for one year at $5.5 million) and Arodys Vizcaino (acquired in the deal that sent Paul Maholm to Atlanta last summer) are scheduled to return from Tommy John surgery at some point in April or May. Batters, Counting Stats Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS Starlin Castro R 23 SS 680 85 187 31 12 14 77 24 11 Anthony Rizzo L 23 1B 642 85 160 32 2 31 109 7 5 Darwin Barney R 27 2B 607 77 153 26 5 5 49 2 8 Brett Jackson L 24 CF 626 79 126 24 10 17 61 9 22 Alfonso Soriano R 37 LF 533 58 123 27 2 26 91 2 4 Logan Watkins L 23 2B 602 75 131 18 8 8 52 7 21 W. Castillo R 26 C 375 39 81 17 0 12 45 0 0 Junior Lake R 23 SS 522 62 124 23 5 10 149 26 10 Matt Szczur R 23 CF 562 69 132 24 6 6 46 28 12 Luis Valbuena L 27 SS 548 57 121 27 2 11 56 4 3 Josh Vitters R 23 3B 596 63 145 29 2 17 74 7 8 David DeJesus L 33 RF 507 64 117 22 6 9 46 4 6 Tony Campana L 27 CF 441 56 106 12 3 1 21 43 12 C. Villanueva R 22 3B 590 56 127 26 3 12 56 20 13 Adrian Cardenas L 25 2B 508 58 121 27 3 3 45 6 4 Steve Clevenger L 27 C 357 31 86 20 2 3 36 1 2 N. Schierholtz L 29 RF 312 35 74 14 3 8 30 4 3 Dioner Navarro B 29 C 200 20 44 9 1 4 22 1 0 Dave Sappelt R 26 RF 617 64 151 28 6 8 51 14 11 Ian Stewart L 28 3B 328 32 61 11 2 11 35 3 3 Alfredo Amezaga B 35 SS 283 29 62 10 1 3 29 4 2 Batters, Rates and Averages Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA Starlin Castro 680 5.3% 12.9% .152 .321 .294 .332 .446 .333 Anthony Rizzo 642 8.7% 20.6% .224 .311 .279 .349 .503 .362 Darwin Barney 607 4.8% 11.4% .090 .298 .270 .308 .360 .292 Brett Jackson 626 10.7% 34.0% .173 .339 .230 .317 .403 .314 Alfonso Soriano 533 6.0% 24.2% .221 .284 .249 .300 .470 .326 Logan Watkins 602 8.3% 20.9% .109 .305 .245 .315 .354 .295 W. Castillo 375 8.0% 25.6% .158 .297 .240 .309 .398 .307 Junior Lake 522 4.8% 27.6% .129 .339 .254 .295 .383 .297 Matt Szczur 562 7.1% 16.4% .105 .300 .256 .312 .361 .297 Luis Valbuena 548 9.3% 21.2% .131 .301 .247 .319 .378 .332 Josh Vitters 596 5.0% 17.8% .151 .294 .262 .305 .413 .305 David DeJesus 507 9.3% 15.0% .137 .297 .262 .341 .399 .307 Tony Campana 441 5.4% 21.5% .052 .339 .262 .306 .314 .320 C. Villanueva 590 4.9% 21.5% .126 .283 .236 .290 .362 .280 Adrian Cardenas 508 7.7% 13.2% .091 .299 .263 .320 .354 .293 Steve Clevenger 357 6.4% 14.6% .100 .300 .261 .309 .361 .291 N. Schierholtz 312 7.1% 16.7% .154 .291 .261 .315 .415 .309 Dioner Navarro 200 7.5% 14.5% .128 .270 .246 .305 .374 .288 Dave Sappelt 617 6.3% 15.4% .114 .307 .267 .316 .381 .298 Ian Stewart 328 10.1% 29.3% .166 .270 .210 .296 .376 .286 Alfredo Amezaga 283 6.7% 16.6% .081 .278 .238 .291 .319 .268 Batters, Assorted Other Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def WAR No.1 Comp Starlin Castro 680 5.7 109 -3 4.0 Robin Yount Anthony Rizzo 642 6.5 129 4 4.0 Kent Hrbek Darwin Barney 607 4.2 81 10 2.3 Jose Lind Brett Jackson 626 4.6 95 1 2.3 Larry Whisenton Alfonso Soriano 533 5.1 105 1 1.8 George Foster Logan Watkins 602 4.1 82 3 1.7 Scott Earl W. Castillo 375 4.4 91 -1 1.6 John Buck Junior Lake 522 4.2 83 -2 1.5 Carlos Garcia Matt Szczur 562 4.2 83 3 1.5 Trey Beamon Luis Valbuena 548 4.3 89 -6 1.3 Jesus Alfaro Josh Vitters 596 4.4 93 -5 1.3 Willy Aybar David DeJesus 507 4.8 101 0 1.1 Dave Martinez Tony Campana 441 4.0 69 5 1.1 Willy Taveras C. Villanueva 590 3.6 76 4 1.1 Tim Olson Adrian Cardenas 508 4.1 84 -3 0.8 Jeff Treadway Steve Clevenger 357 4.0 82 -3 0.8 Bobby Wilson N. Schierholtz 312 4.7 97 1 0.8 Keith Hughes Dioner Navarro 200 4.1 84 0 0.7 Doug Newstrom Dave Sappelt 617 4.3 89 0 0.5 Pat Watkins Ian Stewart 328 3.7 81 -2 0.4 Sean Mcnally Alfredo Amezaga 283 3.3 66 -1 0.3 Alfredo Griffin Pitchers, Counting Stats Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER Jeff Samardzija R 28 27 27 169.0 172 54 19 153 73 68 Edwin Jackson R 29 30 30 186.7 159 60 19 183 87 81 Matt Garza R 29 25 25 151.7 140 48 17 140 66 62 Scott Baker R 31 19 18 111.7 100 30 14 111 52 49 C.Villanueva R 29 34 14 110.7 100 41 14 102 52 49 Travis Wood L 26 31 30 171.0 135 59 23 175 92 86 Scott Feldman R 30 25 17 108.7 79 31 11 115 56 52 Carlos Marmol R 30 67 0 64.3 91 46 5 46 26 24 Kyuji Fujikawa R 32 54 0 50.7 57 19 5 44 20 19 James Russell L 27 72 0 68.3 56 24 6 67 31 29 Shawn Camp R 37 65 0 64.3 43 19 6 66 30 28 Arodys Vizcaino R 22 48 0 44.7 46 17 5 42 20 19 Alberto Cabrera R 24 72 0 79.3 83 39 9 73 40 37 Michael Bowden R 26 56 0 69.7 63 36 8 65 35 33 Lendy Castillo R 24 22 6 41.3 33 20 5 43 24 22 Hector Rondon R 25 5 4 13.3 11 5 2 14 7 7 A.Carpenter R 28 36 12 94.3 69 38 13 101 56 52 Cory Wade R 30 49 0 60.3 45 18 8 62 32 30 Chris Rusin L 26 27 26 134.3 79 54 16 154 82 77 M.Socolovich R 26 39 0 58.3 50 33 6 57 32 30 Casey Coleman R 25 29 19 112.0 76 51 14 124 70 65 Rodrigo Lopez R 37 22 18 102.3 58 38 15 117 64 60 Jaye Chapman R 26 51 0 62.7 57 43 7 61 35 33 R.Whitenack R 24 15 15 57.0 32 33 7 63 37 35 Blake Parker R 28 41 0 50.3 44 28 7 51 30 28 Rafael Dolis R 25 54 0 64.3 44 35 6 66 37 35 Brooks Raley L 25 23 23 119.3 65 48 15 146 79 74 Seth McClung R 32 20 16 90.0 52 63 10 102 62 58 Trey McNutt R 23 29 18 88.3 52 53 13 107 65 61 Pitchers, Rates and Averages Pitchers, Assorted Other Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ WAR No. 1 Comp Jeff Samardzija 169.0 9.16 2.88 1.01 109 3.1 Kirk McCaskil Edwin Jackson 186.7 7.66 2.89 0.92 101 2.8 Kris Benson Matt Garza 151.7 8.31 2.85 1.01 107 2.7 Kelly Downs Scott Baker 111.7 8.06 2.42 1.13 100 1.6 Hideki Irabu C. Villanueva 110.7 8.13 3.33 1.14 99 1.4 Jorge Sosa Travis Wood 171.0 7.11 3.11 1.21 87 1.3 Lance Painter Scott Feldman 108.7 6.54 2.57 0.91 92 1.0 Sean Bergman Carlos Marmol 64.3 12.74 6.44 0.70 117 0.9 Ryne Duren Kyuji Fujikawa 50.7 10.12 3.37 0.89 117 0.7 Robb Nen James Russell 68.3 7.38 3.16 0.79 103 0.5 Bill Moloney Shawn Camp 64.3 6.02 2.66 0.84 101 0.4 Rick White Arodys Vizcaino 44.7 9.26 3.42 1.01 103 0.3 Antonio Osuna Alberto Cabrera 79.3 9.42 4.43 1.02 94 0.2 Toby Borland Michael Bowden 69.7 8.13 4.65 1.03 93 0.2 Justin Hedrick Lendy Castillo 41.3 7.19 4.36 1.09 82 0.1 Nick DeBarr Hector Rondon 13.3 7.44 3.38 1.35 83 0.1 Luis Vasquez A. Carpenter 94.3 6.59 3.63 1.24 80 0.0 Keith Li Cory Wade 60.3 6.72 2.69 1.19 88 0.0 Dan Giese Chris Rusin 134.3 5.29 3.62 1.07 76 0.0 Wes Whisler Casey Coleman 112.0 6.11 4.10 1.13 76 -0.2 Dane Anthony Rodrigo Lopez 102.3 5.10 3.34 1.32 75 -0.2 Aaron Sele Jaye Chapman 62.7 8.18 6.17 1.00 83 -0.2 Marc Pisciotta R. Whitenack 57.0 5.05 5.21 1.11 71 -0.3 Tim Harr Blake Parker 50.3 7.87 5.01 1.25 79 -0.3 Doug Gogolewski Rafael Dolis 64.3 6.16 4.90 0.84 81 -0.4 Blake Mayo Brooks Raley 119.3 4.90 3.62 1.13 71 -0.6 Wes Whisler Seth McClung 90.0 5.20 6.30 1.00 68 -0.8 Russ Ortiz Trey McNutt 88.3 5.30 5.40 1.33 63 -1.2 Jim Henderson -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 36.224.221.230