Fw: [外電] Samardzija, In the Name of Efficiency

看板Cubs作者Zamned (扎姆德)時間10年前 (2014/05/23 21:24)推噓2(2推 0噓 42→)

留言44則, 3人參與討論串1/1

※ [本文轉錄自 MLB 看板 #1JVibuEN ] 作者: JakeMcGee (Jake McGee) 看板: MLB 標題: [外電] Samardzija, In the Name of Efficiency 時間: Fri May 23 12:07:14 2014 Jeff Samardzija, In the Name of Efficiency http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jeff-samardzija-in-the-name-of-efficiency/ by Jeff Sullivan - May 22, 2014 There are two big stories with Jeff Samardzija right now. One is that he’s almost certain to get traded by the Cubs somewhere around the deadline, as a contender looks for a major rotation boost. The other is that Samardzija is currently 0-4 in ten starts with a 1.46 ERA. Of course, we pretty much never talk about win/loss record, and of course a pitcher on the Cubs is going to have a worse record than he deserves, but for as silly as this bit of trivia is, it really is astonishing. In Samardzija’s ten games, the Cubs have scored 20 runs. 現在對於鯊魚來說有兩個關注點 1. 他大概會在交易截止日前被交易 2. 本季先發十場戰績0-4 ERA1.46(我記得這是MLB歷史紀錄了) 當然我們不去討論勝敗紀錄況且在光緒熊的投手本來就會有更差的勝敗成績(Garza表示:) 雖然有點好笑但另人吃驚的是這10場比賽光緒熊只得了20分 Because of those two things going on, relatively few people might have noticed a third thing going on. Samardzija remains a quality starter, but ever so quietly, he’s changed his profile. The starter version of Jeff Samardzija in 2014 isn’t the starter version of Jeff Samardzija from the two previous years, and in particular, this version of Samardzija doesn’t get as many strikeouts, even though he still has all his stuff. Last year, he was tied in strikeout rate with Shelby Miller and Gio Gonzalez. This year he’s even with Kyle Lohse. At the moment, Samardzija is one of the most talked-about pitchers in baseball, and so we might as well talk about why he isn’t quite what he was. It’s not that he’s a worse pitcher. It’s that he ’s a different pitcher. 而前面兩件事情都仍在進行許多人都沒注意到第三件事情鯊魚是個非常好的投手甚至安靜到他改變了投球型態都沒人注意 2014年的鯊魚跟前兩季的他是不一樣的投手這版本的他少了一些三振卻保有他原先的實力去年他的三振率跟Gio和雪碧一樣而這季卻跟肉絲一樣鯊魚現在是個被熱烈討論的投手所以我們想要來探討他怎麼跟之前不一樣了 Where do you start? Pitch mix, right? Pitch mix is the easiest thing to investigate, and according to Brooks Baseball, Samardzija has moved away from his bread-and-butter, the split. He still has the splitter in his back pocket, because it’s an important pitch for him, but his splitter rate has dropped from 18% to 16% to 10%. Picking up the slack: he’s thrown more sinkers. Samardzija, basically, is throwing more hittable pitches. 從哪裡下手呢? 投球種類對吧? 這是最容易去看投手的類型方式根據Brooks Baseball 鯊魚的指叉球越來越少投了雖然這是他相當重要的球種指叉球使用率從18%到16%再到10% 記得這句話 " 他投更多伸卡球 " 簡單來說鯊魚投了更多容易被打的球 And we can zero in on the splitter rate in two-strike counts, when Samardzija might be going for a whiff: 2012: 43% 2013: 36% 2014: 24% 以上是兩好球後鯊魚使用指叉球的比例 Used to be, Samardzija would get a strikeout with 22% of his two-strike pitches. So far this season, that’s at 17%, in part because there have been fewer splitters. And it seems important to note a couple things. One, Samardzija’s splitter has changed. It’s gained a few inches of arm-side run, and it’s lost a little bit of drop. Two, Samardzija didn’t start using the splitter this year until halfway through spring training. He was putting a lot of work into improving his other pitches, and, a relevant quote: 從前鯊魚兩好球後會有22%的三振率今年則是17% 主因是他使用較少的指叉球但還有其他事情必須說明 1. 鯊魚的指叉球改變了 2. 春訓過了一半鯊魚才開始用他的指叉球 “You take a risk any time you do something like that and change or heavily work on one pitch or don’t work on one pitch,” Samardzija said. “You’re throwing something too much or not throwing it enough.” [...] “A couple of years ago I’d keep throwing my splitter, at times with the mentality to punch out a lot of guys. But a lot of time you’re wasting pitches and letting them back in counts,” Samardzija said. 以上是鯊魚接受訪問的片段 After pitch mix, you think about pitch location. I’m going to show you a couple graphs, showing Samardzija against righties and Samardzija against lefties. The graphs will show average pitch location broken down by type, and while it isn’t the best thing to do to come up with an average location, the results can still be telling. Zero on the x-axis is the center of the plate, and zero on the y-axis is the middle of the zone, vertically. 在球種之後你可以能想到的是進壘位置以下將告訴你鯊魚分別面對左打及右打的情況 http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/samardzijarhb.png

FA: four-seamer SI: sinker FC: cutter SL: slider FS: splitter (classifications straight from Brooks Baseball) In blue, locations from a year ago. In red, locations from this year. The biggest change, by far, is that Samardzija has thrown his splitter to righties a lot lower and more away. The units, incidentally, are feet. Samardzija has also been more willing to throw his sinker over the plate, and he’s brought in both his cutter and his four-seamer. The slider’s been lower. Four of five pitches have been lower. Samardzija has made an effort to work down, more, trying to get grounders and avoid the homers that’ve troubled him in the past. (右打) 藍點是去年的位置紅點是今年的最大的改變是指叉球更低且更外面另外他投伸卡球更偏近好球帶而四縫跟卡特也是相同情況滑球也更低五個球種內就有四種比去年更低試圖取得更多滾球近而避免HR的發生 The flip side: http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/samardzijalhb.png

Another massive change with the splitter. It’s being buried more, and where Samardzija used to throw it off the outside edge to lefties, now he’s a lot more willing to throw it down but over the plate. The cutter is no longer just an inside pitch. The four-seamer has drifted toward the outer edge. The sinker has come back closer to the fastball. All five pitches are lower, as, again, Samardzija is trying to do what he can to keep the ball out of the air. (左打) 另一個指叉球的重大改變與去年相比投得更接近好球帶但更低卡特不只是近身球了四縫朝向外角伸卡則往好球帶移動所有的五種球路都更低再次說明鯊魚試圖將球留在地上而不是天空 What else? Plenty else. Samardzija made a change last September that didn’t seem to draw a lot of attention, but here are his horizontal release points, by start, from Brooks: 那還有什麼? 其實還很多..... 去年九月鯊魚就改變了他放球點的位置 http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/samardzijarelease.jpg

In his third-to-last start of 2013, Samardzija shifted toward the third-base side of the rubber, and he’s only shifted even more in 2014. The difference is about a foot, as Samardzija now is releasing the ball from behind a right-handed hitter’s back. I couldn’t find any quotes, but, presumably, this is about Samardzija looking for better angles, and in the three starts before Samardzija moved, lefties batted .237, but righties batted .400 while slugging .725. Samardzija was getting abused by right-handed hitters, so he tried to get a better angle against them, as sort of a counter-attack. It’s also worth noting that Samardzija has gradually been dropping his arm angle, though the difference has been more slight. This might be contributing to his splitter having different movement. 從去年季末鯊魚在投手丘上就移向3壘一些今年更加明顯現在鯊魚的放球點大概是在右打者的背後可能是他尋找更好的角度在他調整前三場左打被打擊率.237 而右打是.400(外帶SLG .725) 所以這些可能是鯊魚在調整面對右打的情況另外他也改變了出手角度(些微低一些) 這可能也導致他的指叉球有不同的位移 As screenshot support for the image above, here are three pictures, showing Samardzija before the shift in 2013, after the shift in 2013, and in 2014. 以下是三張鯊魚調整投球姿勢的照片 1. 2013調整前 2. 2013調整後 3. 2014再調整 http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/samardzija9413.png

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/samardzija92313.png

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/samardzija52114.png

Samardzija these days is working from the extreme end of the rubber, and though that could change down the road — it changed just last September — it ’s not like Samardzija is feeling any sense of urgency to change what’s allowed him to run such a low ERA. So? Right now, Samardzija’s strikeouts of righties are down, but he’s also trimmed his walks to almost nothing, and he’s getting more grounders. He has yet to allow a right-handed home run. Lefties, meanwhile, are striking out a little less and walking a little more, but they’re also hitting more grounders, and slugging .319. Previously, lefties facing Samardzija slugged in the .440s. 所以? 現在他三振下滑了但是有更多的滾球先前面對左打有.440的長打率現在則是.319 It seems like we’ve covered everything, but there’s one last detail, and this might be the most dramatic of all. Last season, Samardzija struck out 23% of batters with the bases empty. This season, he’s also at 23%, with identical walks. With men on, though, his whiffs have dropped from 24% to 16%. About that pitch mix from earlier — let’s break that down some. 似乎我們已經解釋了差不多了但還有最後一點而且這可能是最重要的改變在壘上無人的情況下去年三振率是23% 今年也是23% 但是當壘上有人從去年的24%下降為16% Bases Empty 壘上無人揮擊率 2012: 68% fastballs/cutters 2013: 68% 2014: 67% Runner(s) On 壘上有人揮擊率 2012: 54% fastballs/cutters 2013: 57% 2014: 73% With nobody on base, Jeff Samardzija has more or less pitched like his familiar self. He’s generated familiar results. When somebody reaches, though, suddenly Samardzija is a fastball machine, where he used to throw almost half secondary stuff. His xFIP with men on base is worse. However, his actual results have been much better to date, with one extra-base hit and no homers. There have been grounders, and fewer deep drives, and it seems like Samardzija might be conquering the issue that has previously given him higher ERAs than you’d expect. 當壘上無人鯊魚就像之前的鯊魚當壘上有人鯊魚就像狂塞直球的機器雖然xFIP-在壘上有人的數據並不好看但實際表現非常好只有一發長打完全沒有被打HR 產生更多滾球避免長打看起來鯊魚似乎戰勝了這個問題 Of course, in time, there will be more homers, and Samardzija’s ERA will start with a 2 or a 3. Elements of his game right now are unsustainable, statistically, and it seems like he might want to prioritize strikeouts more with men on. But that hasn’t worked great for him in the past, so you can see why he’s interested in adjustments. You can see why he might want to throw fewer splitters, and you can see how Samardzija can succeed as a pitcher as less of a strikeout pitcher. If Samardzija ever wants to go back, he probably could, because he still has the repertoire. But if he likes this approach, and if the splitter is just a bit less useful from a lower slot and a more extreme angle, Samardzija is running the same xFIP- as he did last season. Samardzija is no less interesting than ever. Samardzija is no less effective than ever. 當然長時間來看一定會有更多的HR會產生而鯊魚的ERA大概會調整到2-3之間現在他的數據再再都顯示無法繼續維持過去他總是把三振視為優先但成果似乎不是太好所以你可以想像為何他要調整現在你看到鯊魚三振下降但更成功如果鯊魚想調整回過去的鯊魚他似乎也可以達到但如果他喜愛這樣的投球型態那他的xFIP-將跟去年差不多鯊魚現在比過去更有趣也更加有效率 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 1.171.122.72 ※ 文章網址: http://www.ptt.cc/bbs/MLB/M.1400818040.A.397.html

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