[情報] Baseball Prospectus’ Top 101

看板Cubs作者 (宮園かをり R.I.P.)時間8年前 (2016/01/26 16:27), 8年前編輯推噓6(6064)
留言70則, 6人參與, 最新討論串1/1
第一是Corey Seager,第二是Byron Buxton,第三是Lucas Giolito。 Lucas Giolito的說明如下: Last year was a good one for the Giolito clan. Showtime announced a Twin Peaks revival (Lucas’ uncle co-created it with David Lynch, and his grandfather played Dr. Will Heyward, the remarkably normal town coroner), and the youngest Giolito made it all the way to Double-A, striking out better than a batter per inning and flashing true top-of-the-scouting-scale stuff along the way. He is now more than three years removed from the UCL tear that kept him from going first overall in the 2012 draft, and with an invitation to Nationals spring training already secured, Giolito may soon be on the hunt for some cherry pie and a damn fine cup of coffee in the nation’s capital. 跟小熊有乳摸的 84. Taylor Guerrieri, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays Guerrieri’s stuff may merit a higher place on this list, but he’s yet to have the opportunity to show that stuff across a full season:The 78 innings he threw in 2015 were a career high, and he was drafted all the way back in 2011. Most of the other first-round prep arms from that draft have already debuted in the majors or are knocking on the door (e.g. Jose Fernandez, Joe Ross, Dylan Bundy, Archie Bradley and Robert Stephenson), while Guerrieri has thrown just 36 innings above A-ball. The fastball-curve combo both show up as plus, but given his durability issues and lack of an above-average future projection for the change, he may end up as a late-inning reliever. 我很想要弄來的XD 21. Blake Snell, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays Snell vaulted to the top of our Tampa Bay Top 10 list after burning through three levels of the minors with a 1.41 ERA. Minor-league ERA not your thing? Understandable. He also fanned 163 batters in 134 innings while giving up only 84 hits. The stuff more than matches the gaudy stats: Snell features a 92–94 mph fastball with excellent movement and life and pairs it with a plus slider and a potentially solid-average change. The only quibble is that you'd like to see him iron out his control issues before he debuts in the Trop, which will likely be sometime in 2016. 後面只貼小熊部分 41. Gleyber Torres, SS, Chicago Cubs After graduating Addison Russell, Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber in 2015, it would be forgivable if the Cubs system were down a bit this year. Their player-development system doesn't rebuild, though; it reloads. Torres may remind you of Starlin Castro, although not so much Castro the wizened veteran but Castro the prospect. He shows the same precocious hitting ability (Torres hit .293 as the youngest player in the Midwest League), and there are also questions about whether he sticks at shortstop long term. Torres cost the current Cubs front office a few pretty pennies more than the $45,000 that Jim Hendry and company paid for Castro, but if he can produce the same results at the plate, it’s unlikely there will be much quibbling over the $1.7 million “splurge.” 57. Willson Contreras, C/3B, Chicago Cubs Contreras didn't get cut from BP's Cubs top-prospects list coming into the 2015 season because he wasn't in legit consideration in the first place. It’s a tribute both to how outstanding their system is and how large a step forward Contreras took in 2015 that he lands just outside the top 50 a year later. Contreras came somewhat late to catching, as the Cubs signed him as an infielder out of Venezuela, and he spent his first three professional seasons playing mostly first and third. But he’s taken well to the tools, and is a good bet to be at least an average defender behind the plate. That said, it was the development of his bat over the last year that marks him as the best catching prospect in baseball. Contreras hit .333 in Double-A and set a career high with 34 doubles; his approach and plate discipline took a step forward as well. It was a true breakout season, and another voyage of self-discovery could rocket him into the top echelon of prospects next year, assuming he doesn't hit his way to Wrigley first. 67. Ian Happ, OF, Chicago Cubs It is not mere happenstance that finds Happ on this year's 101.He's another polished college bat who the Cubs happily added to their system, selecting the Cincinnati outfielder with the ninth-overall pick in the 2015 draft. If you happened upon him in his professional debut last summer, you saw a switch- hitting outfielder who never looks hapless from either side of the plate, and shows enough present-day feel and approach to move quickly through the minors. Happ is not quite athletic enough for center field, and has run out to all three outfield positions so far in his brief pro career. There is some thought that he might be able to play second base, so there is no need for the Cubs to make a decision about his ultimate defensive home haphazardly. 74. Billy McKinney, OF, Chicago Cubs If “left-field profile” is pejorative, “tweener” is an epitaph. But we come to praise McKinney, not to bury him. He is, after all,the 74th-best prospect in baseball. True, he doesn’t have the foot speed for center field, nor the arm for right, and his yearly total of dingers should just barely creep into double digits once his game power fully develops. What he can do is engage that most primal of baseball skills: See ball, strike ball. If we were to rank these same 101 prospects just on their hit tools, McKinney would be much higher, and not just because there are a lot of pitchers. He could be a perennial .300 hitter in an era when that is a very rare thing. That may be enough to carry a left- field profile and avoid the tweener tag. 83. Albert Almora, OF, Cubs Almora’s well-rounded skill set hasn’t quite coalesced at the superstar speed of some of his fellow 2012 first-rounders, but it’s getting there. An aggressive approach has frequently undercut his promising hit tool and limited his solid power potential as he’s journeyed up the ranks. But while the power remains nascent he made notable progress in upping his previously abysmal walk rate at Double-A last year, and he continued to make contact at a fine clip. He shines in the field, and though he lacks for much more than average raw foot speed he is blessed with an innate ability to anticipate and read contact. It remains an open question whether the offensive package is likely to get to first-division caliber, but the defense and drive should be more than enough to grant him an audition to find out in the near future. 97. Eddy Julio Martinez, OF, Chicago Cubs Martinez might want to steer clear of the Swan Oyster Depot for a while after backing out of a deal with San Francisco to take $3 million from the Cubs. It's not the end of the world (Chicago has almost as many Michelin stars as offensive stars nowadays),but the 20-year-old Cuban outfielder still has a ways to go developmentally before he'll be scoring reservations at Alinea or 42 Grams. Martinez is likely to start 2016 in South Bend (best restaurant according to TripAdvisor: LaSalle Grill), where he will start to answer the questions about his power potential and ultimate defensive home in the outfield. -- やっ..........!!!!!!止めろペイモンこの野郎~~~~~~っ 地獄でいきなり聖書なんえ 読み上げやがってえ~~~~~~~~~っ!!殺すえおっ!! -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 118.160.13.196 ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Cubs/M.1453796869.A.5A2.html

01/26 16:33, , 1F
這六位就是BP還未出爐的小熊TOP 10前六新秀了~~~
01/26 16:33, 1F

01/26 16:50, , 2F
球隊排名和top101不是同一群人排的吧 所以偶爾也會出
01/26 16:50, 2F

01/26 16:50, , 3F
現排名不一致的情況的樣子(不確定 但BA有見識過這種
01/26 16:50, 3F

01/26 16:50, , 4F
情況)
01/26 16:50, 4F

01/26 17:02, , 5F
BA是寫手們劃分責任區塊,負責不同隊伍。BP是整個團隊吧
01/26 17:02, 5F

01/26 17:06, , 6F

01/26 17:08, , 7F
名次討論出出來後,內容交給特地人寫
01/26 17:08, 7F

01/26 17:15, , 8F
小蛇有共估嗎
01/26 17:15, 8F
s ※ 編輯: Zamned (59.115.137.88), 01/26/2016 17:18:45

01/26 17:19, , 9F
38,48,72 三支
01/26 17:19, 9F

01/26 19:00, , 10F
感謝~
01/26 19:00, 10F
我修一下 手機貼都跑掉了 38. Braden Shipley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks For variety’s sake, here are some potential no. 3 starter Mad Libs: Shipley features a plus fastball that sits in the mid-90s and complements it with (pitcher’s name)(scouty verb) a plus changeup that could be a swing-and-miss offering in the bigs. His(best off-speed pitch) (synonym for MLB) curveball lags behind his other two offerings, but could get to average with further(third pitch) development. The command profile here is only fringe -average, due to issues (noun that ends in “ment”)(probably “fringe”)repeating his delivery.Shipley is a potential manatee on the mound, capable of taking (pitcher’s name)(strong animal)the ball every fifth day and logging innings in the middle of a major-league rotation. 48. Archie Bradley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks Last year was a bit of a lost season for the Diamondbacks' top prospect. His major-league debut was marred by a line drive off his face and general control struggles led to his demotion back to Triple-A. Shoulder issues followed, and cost him most of the summer. He showed flashes of what made him a top-10 national prospect at the end of the year in Reno, but this was the second straight year in which Bradley spent more time off the field than on it. At his best, he features a mid-90s fastball and a hammer curve, but much to Riverdale’s dismay, he has rarely been at his best lately. 72. Brandon Drury, 2B, Arizona Diamondbacks Anytime a former 13th-rounder makes his big-league debut, someone somewhere in an amateur-scouting department gets an extra half-hour of free continental breakfast at the closest Days Inn. Drury has a legitimate shot at helping the big club in a significant way in 2016. He’ll show four average-or-slightly- better tools, with the power potential standing out as an expected strength despite curiously poor home run totals in the high minors. A competent defender at second or third, he’s capable of occupying prime real estate on the depth chart for the next several years. ※ 編輯: Zamned (59.115.137.88), 01/26/2016 20:09:50

01/27 01:08, , 11F
Hi~
01/27 01:08, 11F

01/27 08:35, , 12F
樓上跑錯版了 來乖乖跟我回去
01/27 08:35, 12F

01/27 12:20, , 13F
基本上,小熊入選的扣除EJM,都是安全牌
01/27 12:20, 13F

01/27 12:22, , 14F
Gleyber Torres的體能要練,他太年輕,無法負荷整年出賽
01/27 12:22, 14F

01/27 12:24, , 15F
小熊相當看重Contreras,他在組織內的評價應該是TOP3,Jim
01/27 12:24, 15F

01/27 12:24, , 16F
Callis的排名與我自己看法都低估他了
01/27 12:24, 16F

01/27 12:25, , 17F
假如Ian Happ守二壘那這個排法我覺得ok
01/27 12:25, 17F

01/27 12:27, , 18F
小熊已經讓相當多的新秀在外界不看好的情形下留在防守熱區
01/27 12:27, 18F

01/27 12:27, , 19F
並成為一個優秀的防守者。
01/27 12:27, 19F

01/27 12:28, , 20F
Ian Happ是個大挑戰。我還是認為他是RF/LF料,但農場大魔
01/27 12:28, 20F

01/27 12:28, , 21F
頭說得應該有點道理
01/27 12:28, 21F

01/27 12:31, , 22F
Jaron Madison給Almora很多愛,我也看好他爆發,私以為他
01/27 12:31, 22F

01/27 12:31, , 23F
應該在McKinny前才是
01/27 12:31, 23F

01/27 12:34, , 24F
EJM有點微妙,他在球探中的評價兩極。Jaron Madison說這個
01/27 12:34, 24F

01/27 12:34, , 25F
簽約是個大偷,但是沒看過他的實戰power前,我認為這個落
01/27 12:34, 25F

01/27 12:34, , 26F
點不是我喜歡的
01/27 12:34, 26F

01/27 12:35, , 27F
換成Edward會更好
01/27 12:35, 27F

01/27 12:48, , 28F
是阿…當初看到你們3M簽下心裡就這樣想…想是他觀望
01/27 12:48, 28F

01/27 12:48, , 29F
太久了價錢才跌這麼多
01/27 12:48, 29F

01/27 14:35, , 30F
覺得還是信自己的球探吧 BA的Ben Badler不會給古巴人
01/27 14:35, 30F

01/27 14:35, , 31F
太高的評價是有歷史的。Keith La則非常喜歡EJM
01/27 14:35, 31F

01/27 14:38, , 32F
要我二者擇一。我會壓Keith Law
01/27 14:38, 32F

01/27 14:41, , 33F
其他古巴人的新聞 Lazarito因為有點太大支,球探認為不大
01/27 14:41, 33F

01/27 14:41, , 34F
可能守中線,所以要價會縮減。再加上他太過年輕,要砸大錢
01/27 14:41, 34F

01/27 14:41, , 35F
賭他風險太高,所以不太可能追上Moncada的簽約金了
01/27 14:41, 35F

01/27 14:45, , 36F
另外,因為Morejon表現太好,讓競爭者變多。小熊已經不是
01/27 14:45, 36F

01/27 14:45, , 37F
最有機會簽下他的大聯盟球隊
01/27 14:45, 37F

01/27 14:47, , 38F
百感交集啊....砸錢給16歲的投手風險太高,但是又好想要XD
01/27 14:47, 38F

01/27 15:07, , 39F
不不 你看Alfredo Rodriguez拿那什麼價錢 你就知道你
01/27 15:07, 39F

01/27 15:07, , 40F
們搶多大…
01/27 15:07, 40F

01/27 15:21, , 41F
Badler不是不給古巴人高評價 只是不會去捧沒有在古
01/27 15:21, 41F

01/27 15:21, , 42F
巴聯賽累積多少紀錄的球員
01/27 15:21, 42F

01/27 15:30, , 43F
就算有古巴聯賽成績也是低估
01/27 15:30, 43F

01/27 15:31, , 44F
沒到美國開始職業比賽都不算數
01/27 15:31, 44F

01/27 15:31, , 45F
然後專捧小聯盟有TOOLS的新秀
01/27 15:31, 45F

01/27 15:32, , 46F
究竟那些TOOLS有多少機會能轉換成實績
01/27 15:32, 46F

01/27 15:33, , 47F
就放比較寬鬆的標準
01/27 15:33, 47F

01/27 15:43, , 48F
Z大是批評他標準不一致嗎XD
01/27 15:43, 48F

01/27 15:44, , 49F
是啊 XD
01/27 15:44, 49F

01/27 15:47, , 50F
不過他今年評條子top10 把Ibanez排到第八 他很喜歡Ib
01/27 15:47, 50F

01/27 15:47, , 51F
anez的樣子 認為他被低估了 一般不會把他排這麼高的
01/27 15:47, 51F

01/27 15:53, , 52F
我是覺得題的農場出了TOP5後有點落差
01/27 15:53, 52F

01/27 15:54, , 53F
接下來就看偏好了
01/27 15:54, 53F

01/27 15:55, , 54F
Luke Jaxon原地踏步 Matuella有傷
01/27 15:55, 54F

01/27 15:56, , 55F
真的要排5-10還不好排
01/27 15:56, 55F

01/27 16:01, , 56F
這是蠻明顯的XD 不過有一些人選應該還是比較好的選
01/27 16:01, 56F

01/27 16:01, , 57F
擇 比如Yohender Mendez
01/27 16:01, 57F

01/28 12:11, , 58F
MLB有意讓好球帶下緣縮減,最快到2017才會成真。對我們的
01/28 12:11, 58F

01/28 12:11, , 59F
打者群有利啊
01/28 12:11, 59F

01/28 12:29, , 60F
Mendez這款的沒上AA,AAA都不會讓BA認真啦 XF
01/28 12:29, 60F

01/28 15:37, , 61F
那沒打過的17歲…
01/28 15:37, 61F

01/29 20:46, , 62F
所以我才覺得BA很XXOO啊 XD
01/29 20:46, 62F

02/01 07:35, , 63F
Z大,Villanueva這位三壘手不算prospects?
02/01 07:35, 63F

02/01 11:00, , 64F
不是 因為只有一個XD
02/01 11:00, 64F

02/01 11:04, , 65F
沒啦 我不是Z大 不過可以回一下 他當然還是潛力新秀
02/01 11:04, 65F

02/01 11:04, , 66F
也還是有機會上來 不過自從離開條子之後他的評價就
02/01 11:04, 66F

02/01 11:04, , 67F
滯留蠻久的了 現在感覺起來比較像是role player 而非
02/01 11:04, 67F

02/01 11:04, , 68F
regular的料
02/01 11:04, 68F

02/04 12:05, , 69F
Villanueva得去其他隊伍找機會上MLB,他不在我的農場TOP3 3
02/04 12:05, 69F

02/04 12:05, , 70F
B內
02/04 12:05, 70F
文章代碼(AID): #1Mfou5MY (Cubs)
文章代碼(AID): #1Mfou5MY (Cubs)