Re: [情報] NEW YORK POST有一篇談論到我們的投手

看板DET_Tigers作者VaROne (ONE)時間20年前 (2004/10/04 03:22)推噓0(0推 0噓 0→)

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BP前陣子有篇文章談到Bonderman... 正好拿出來一起討論... The Tigers have had to put up with a whole lot of snickering the last two years over their decision to push Jeremy Bonderman, 20 years old and with no experience above A ball, straight into their Opening Day rotation last year. Payback time has arrived, in the form of one of the most dominant starts of the season. Against the White Sox on Monday, Bonderman threw a seven-hit shutout and struck out 14 batters, the highest total by a Tigers pitcher since Mickey Lolich back in 1972. What's most impressive is that Bonderman struck out those 14 hitters, and faced 36 overall, in the span of just 114 pitches. That's a remarkable combination of power and efficiency. Bonderman struck out five batters on just three pitches; four batters on just four pitches; four batters on five pitches; and one batter on six pitches. Amazingly, none of the 14 strikeout victims, 13 of whom went down swinging, managed to foul off a two-strike pitch. It's not that unusual for a pitcher to strike out 14 batters in a single start. But it is unusual--very unusual--for a pitcher to do so at such a young age. As Bill James noted on many occasions, the single most important indicator for a pitcher's long-term future isn't his age; it's his strikeout rate. The 40-year-old pitcher with a league-leading strikeout rate (think Nolan Ryan or Randy Johnson) is likely to still be pitching in the majors when the 25- year-old pitcher with a below-average strikeout rate (Nate Cornejo, anyone?) is long gone. (As with other laws of nature, this rule does not apply to Kirk Rueter.) Also, most pitchers improve their strikeout rate during their first few years in the major leagues. So it stands to reason when you have a pitcher who is both extremely young and has a superior strikeout rate, that pitcher would seem to have an almost limitless future, no? Let's see. Let's find all the pitchers in major-league history who, like Bonderman, threw at least 125 innings at age 20 and age 21; struck out at least five batters per nine innings at age 20; and struck out at least 7.5 batters per 9 innings at age 21. (Bonderman's rates are 6.00 and 8.13, respectively.) Name Years K/9 (Age 20) K/9 (Age 21) Smokey Joe Wood 1910-11 6.57 7.54 Dave Morehead 1963-64 7.01 7.51 Bob Moose 1968-69 6.62 8.74 Frank Tanana 1974-75 6.03 9.41 Dennis Eckersley 1975-76 7.33 9.03 Jeremy Bonderman 2003-04 6.00 8.13 That's a pretty exclusive list. Dennis Eckersley is in the Hall of Fame; Frank Tanana survived the death of his fastball in 1978 to win 240 games; Smokey Joe Wood was one of the game's best pitchers before arm problems forced him to become one of the game's better outfielders. Dave Morehead's career fizzled out quickly, in large part due to command problems, but at least he didn't meet the fate of Bob Moose, who was killed in a car accident on his 29th birthday. How much should one shining start alter our impression of Bonderman's future? More than you might think. Here is a list of all the pitchers in our database (going back to 1972) who struck out 14 batters in a start before their 22nd birthday: Name Date Age K Frank Tanana 06/21/75 21 years, 11 months 17 Frank Tanana 06/30/75 21 years, 11 months 15 Dennis Eckersley 08/13/76 21 years, 10 months 14 Moose Haas 04/12/78 21 years, 11 months 14 Dwight Gooden 05/25/84 19 years, 6 months 14 Dwight Gooden 09/12/84 19 years, 9 months 16 Dwight Gooden 09/17/84 19 years, 10 months 16 Jose Rijo 04/19/86 20 years, 11 months 16 Jose Rijo 04/24/86 20 years, 11 months 14 Kerry Wood 05/06/98 20 years, 10 months 20 Kerry Wood 08/26/98 21 years, 2 months 16 Jeremy Bonderman 08/23/04 21 years, 9 months 14 Of the six other pitchers on that list, the closest to a turkey is Moose Haas , who won 100 games in his career. Haas' start was quite clearly a fluke; outside of his performance on April 12, he struck out fewer than five batters per nine innings that season. If we extend the age limit out a couple of weeks, we can include this perfor- mance: Roger Clemens 08/21/84 22 years, 0 months 15 As much as one start can change the perception of a pitcher, Monday's start against the White Sox should make everyone stand up and take notice: one of the best young pitchers in baseball toils for the Tigers. So are we now saying that the Tigers were right to start Bonderman in the majors last season? Of course not. Because of that decision, Bonderman will be a free agent after the 2008, not 2009, season. At the rate he's going, by 2009 (when he'll be only 26) Bonderman could be one of the best pitchers in the game, period. -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 219.80.153.175