[情報] Athlon Baseball 2009 Tigers Preview
Athlon Baseball 2009 Detroit Tigers Preview
Much was expected from Detroit after Miguel Cabrera and Edgar Renteria were
added in offseason trades, supposedly giving Jim Leyland a lineup capable of
scoring 1,000 runs, but 2008 only produced 1,000 headaches for Leyland and the
Tigers’ fans. The lineup wasn’t as good as advertised, but it wouldn’t have
mattered if it had been. Detroit’s pitching staff continued the slide that
yielded a disappointing 2007 after a pennant-winning ’06, with even ace Justin
Verlander turning in a poor performance. An 0–7 start coupled with a 10–17
May left the Tigers in a hole they couldn’t escape, and both Dontrelle Willis
and the Renteria trade provided a season-long black cloud for GM Dave
Dombrowski. Cabrera finished with 37 homers, tops in the AL, but there wasn’t
any celebrating after a 74–88 last-place season.
Rotation
Was the 2006 season a fluke? That certainly looks like the case given the
deterioration of Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson and even Verlander since
then. That trio was a combined 21–32 last season, with Verlander losing an
AL-high 17 games. Those guys are all back, but Robertson will have to pitch
especially well in the spring to be considered for a job. The cast behind
Verlander will include righthander Armando Galarraga, Bonderman, righthander
Edwin Jackson and, if he can get out of spring training, Willis, a lefty. It’s
a vulnerable group, with only Verlander and Galarraga even remotely regarded as
givens. Nothing would mean more than a return to form from Willis, but he lost
his fastball in 2007 and his control in ’08. Don’t be surprised if top
prospect Rick Porcello winds up making 15 to 20 starts.
Bullpen
Like starter Kenny Rogers, closer Todd Jones departed after 2008. The Tigers
were thwarted in their first two attempts to replace him — Kerry Wood signed
with the Indians and J.J. Putz was dealt to the Mets. Dombrowski will be
searching for some bargains heading into spring training, but it looks as
though righthanders Fernando Rodney, Brandon Lyon, signed as a free agent, and
Joel Zumaya will be counted on to handle the eighth and ninth innings. Zumaya
could be a big contributor if his shoulder holds together, but he - hasn’t
been the same since his Guitar Hero injury. Second-year righthander Freddy
Dolsi is penciled into middle relief but could pitch his way into a bigger
role. The cast behind those three includes lefties Bobby Seay and Clay Rapada
and swing man Zach Miner. Ryan Perry, the Tigers’ first-round pick in 2008,
could open eyes in spring training but probably needs a full season in the
minors before being assigned to Leyland’s staff.
Middle infield
As a one-time All-Star, Placido Polanco remains one of baseball’s overlooked
treasures. His .350 career on-base percentage, along with his skills as a
fielder and situational hitter, make him tremendously valuable. He’s not quite
an elite second baseman, but there are at least 25 other teams that would love
to have him. He’s in the last year of his contract and could be traded by the
deadline, although that would qualify as a bad day for Leyland. The sure-handed
Adam Everett is a major defensive upgrade at shortstop who will be appreciated
by Detroit’s pitching staff, if not its fans.
Corners
Don’t blame the Tigers’ disappointing 2008 on the Cabrera trade. Despite a
slow start and the move to a pitcher’s park, Cabrera justified his reputation
as one of baseball’s most feared hitters. He led the AL in home runs (37) and
tied for the league lead in total bases while setting a career high in RBIs
(127) during his first season in Detroit. His strong second half suggests an
even bigger 2009. It would have been better for the Tigers if Cabrera could
have stayed at third base, but he moved across the diamond only 14 games into
the season. His fielding and weight shouldn’t be as much of a cause for
concern at first as they were at third. Brandon Inge, the regular catcher in
the middle part of ’08, enters spring as the likely third baseman but only
because he’s owed $12.9 million over two seasons. His batting average has
declined four years in a row. Jeff Larish and the powerful Mike Hessman could
wind up as the primary third basemen.
Outfield
Left field, the one unsettled spot in the outfield the last three seasons, is
changing again. Carlos Guillen moves out there after migrating from shortstop
to first base and third base in 2007 and ’08. He’s a productive hitter, but
his contribution won’t mean as much at an offensive position. The rest of the
outfield is state of the art, with Curtis Granderson in center and Magglio Ordo
ñez in right. Granderson is a weapon as a leadoff hitter, and he runs down
balls in the big gaps at Comerica. He slowed down some on the bases last season
but still led the AL in triples for the second year in a row. He’s made
adjustments at the plate, cutting down on his strikeouts while raising his walk
total. Ordoñez is an extremely consistent run producer but no longer covers a
lot of ground in right.
Catching
Highly regarded as a minor leaguer, Gerald Laird never distinguished himself
during his six seasons in Texas. He’s got a solid arm but never threw out an
especially high percentage of runners. He has some pop but never hit more than
nine homers. It’s hard to see how he’ll keep Detroit from going backward
after having Ivan Rodriguez as the primary catcher for four-plus seasons. The
strong-armed Dusty Ryan could push Laird for the job before the season is over.
DH/Bench
Gary Sheffield wants to get away from Leyland but didn’t build much of a
market for a trade by hitting .225 in the 114 games he played last season. He
turned 40 in the offseason and won’t get another contract unless he drinks
from the fountain of youth. That seems unlikely as his last 100-RBI season was
in 2005. He’s likely to be a distraction off the field, either lobbying for a
trade or complaining about some phantom injustice. His at-bats would be better
used if they were given to Marcus Thames, who remains the best hitter in
baseball to never play more than 110 games. If Larish doesn’t win the third
base job, he will be available to provide punch off the bench. Ramon Santiago
serves as the utility infielder. Inge’s ability to catch could allow Leyland
to carry another hitter — possibly Hessman, who delivered 39 homers between
Triple-A and Detroit last season. Matt Treanor was signed to be the No. 2
catcher, in part because he worked well with Willis in Florida.
Management
With owner Mike Ilitch seeking the World Series victory that eluded him in
2006, Dombrowski enjoyed staggering resources in 2007-08. An all-out approach
missed, however, leaving the franchise burdened by bad contracts and trades
that sent Jair Jurrjens to Atlanta and Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller to
Florida. Dombrowski has time to fix the mess, as he’s signed through 2011.
Leyland isn’t a long-haul guy. This could be his last year if the Tigers don’
t make some noise.
Final Analysis
This team has established little continuity; only three of the eight spots —
second, center and right — are unchanged since the start of 2008. It’s
imperative for this team to get off to a fast start and build confidence. While
the Tigers don’t have the firepower they did a year ago, they will hold their
own at the top and middle of the lineup. But there aren’t many sure things on
the pitching staff, so look for lots more high-scoring games — and enough
losses to stir Leyland into some candid post-game diatribes.
Statistician
1,326 >> Jim Leyland’s career wins, which rank fifth among active managers.
5 >> Home runs hit by Mike Hessman in only 27 at bats with the Tigers last
year. He has 288 homers in 5,136 minor league at bats.
235 >> Franchise-best saves for closer Todd Jones, who retired after eight
seasons with the Tigers (1997-2001, 2006-08).
3.84 >> Tigers’ ERA in 2006, when they won the AL Pennant.
4.57 >> Tigers’ ERA in 2007.
4.90 >> Tigers’ ERA in 2008.
18 >> Pitches of at least 100 mph thrown by Joel Zumaya last year, the most
in the AL.
17 >> Losses by Justin Verlander last season, the most in the AL.
15 >> Losses by Verlander in 2006 and ’07 combined.
0 >> Combined sacrifice bunts by Magglio Ordoñez and Gary Sheffield last
season.
Difference Maker
Improved pitching is imperative for the Tigers to end their two-year slide.
That starts with a return to form for Justin Verlander, whose career ERA spiked
from 3.74 to 4.11 during 2008. His secondary stats suggest a likely bounce-back
season, as his walks were up but still only 3.9 per nine innings, and he
allowed opponents to hit .254, which was actually lower than in 2006 (.266),
when he was 17–9. He needs a fast start to put a terrible finish (4–8, 6.04
ERA after the All-Star break) behind him.
Beyond the Boxscore
A real double threat Leadoff man Curtis Granderson delivered 26 doubles, 13
triples, 22 home runs and 12 stolen bases — the second year in a row he hit
double figures in all four of those categories. He’s only the fourth player in
franchise history to have more than one such season, joining Bobby Veach
(1920-21), Ty Cobb (1921, ’25) and Charlie Gehringer (1929-30).
Waving the Venezuelan flag Magglio Ordoñez hit a solo homer on April 22 for
the 1,000th RBI of his career, becoming the second ever Venezuelan-born player
to drive in 1,000-plus runs. He finished with 103 RBIs, bringing his career
mark to 1,095, 330 behind Venezuelan leader Andres “The Big Cat’’ Galarraga.
Bobby Abreu also hit the 1,000-RBI mark in 2008.
Help from nowhere The Rangers placed Armando Galarraga on waivers a couple
weeks before spring training last year, and Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski sent
minor league outfielder Michael Hernandez to the Rangers to get him. Galarraga
paid huge dividends. He held Arizona to one hit in six innings on May 17 and
took a perfect game into the seventh at Kansas City on July 23. He held
opponents to a .226 average, the second-lowest figure in the AL, and struck out
126, second-most ever by a Detroit rookie.
The big finish For the first time in five seasons, new Tiger Miguel Cabrera
failed to earn an All-Star spot. But he flexed his muscles in the second half,
leading the AL with 21 homers and 70 RBIs after the break. It was the most RBIs
by a Tiger after the break since Rocky Colavito’s 77 in 1961. Cabrera’s 127
RBIs were the third-best ever for a player in his first year with Detroit,
behind Dale Alexander’s 137 in 1929 and Cecil Fielder’s 132 in 1990.
Relief work After 164 career starts, lefty Dontrelle Willis made his first
career relief appearance on May 23 against Minnesota. It was the only one he
made during a disappointing, injury plagued season that saw the two-time
All-Star work 56.1 of his 80.1 overall innings in the minor leagues.
Farm System
2008 Top Draft Pick — The Tigers used the 21st overall pick to select a
powerful college reliever. Ryan Perry’s fastball touched 100 mph while at the
University of Arizona and in the Detroit system after signing his $1.48 million
bonus. A converted shortstop, he’s an excellent athlete with a great build but
is relatively raw for a college product, in part because a motorcycle wreck
cost him time at Arizona. He throws an average changeup and sometimes lacks
command. He’s a project for minor league coaches but could arrive fast if he
improves his consistency. He’s got a closer’s arm but might help as a setup
man in 2009 or ’10.
2007 Top Pick — Rick Porcello, RHP, Seton Hall (N.J.) Prep
Came at a high price, but he’s an ace in waiting and could get to Detroit soon.
2006 Top Pick — Andrew Miller, LHP, North Carolina
Rushed to the bigs after the draft and traded to Florida in the Miguel Cabrera
blockbuster.
2005 Top Pick — Cameron Maybin, CF, T.C. Roberson (N.C.) High School
Five-tool player also went to Florida in the Cabrera deal and could stick with
Marlins in 2009.
2004 Top Pick — Justin Verlander, RHP, Old Dominion
A key to Detroit’s pennant-winning 2006 season, he led AL with 17 losses last
season.
2003 Top Pick — Kyle Sleeth, RHP, Wake Forest
Injuries never let him get past Double-A, and he was out of baseball in 2008.
Other Prospects (age on Opening Day)
SS Cale Iorg (23)
The son of former big leaguer Garth Iorg, he’s a complete player in the Travis
Fryman mold.
IF Jeff Larish (26)
A left-handed hitter with power, he’s blocked by Miguel Cabrera at first, his
best position.
C Dusty Ryan (24)
Has a cannon for an arm and may have turned a corner as a hitter.
OF Wilkin Ramirez (23)
Hit .303 in Double-A but may not be a strong enough fielder to survive at
Comerica Park.
3B Mike Hessman (31)
Late bloomer has homered every 12.9 at-bats in parts of four big league seasons.
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