[翻譯] Tigers' Pitching Newbies : Rick Porcello

看板DET_Tigers作者yyjack (小虎)時間15年前 (2010/05/12 01:49)推噓3(3推 0噓 2→)

留言5則, 4人參與討論串1/1

Matt Wallace 針對小老虎們新球季第一個月表現進行分析有Alex Avila , Austin Jackson , Scott Sizemore , Rick Porcello , Max Scherzer 近期有點懶沒有馬上翻趕在明早Porcello大戰洋基解決關於他的觀察結論留在文章最後再說不管如何是該回復正常幹掉邪惡帝國的時候了!!! 原文出處: 投手:http://www.t75n.com/2010-articles/april/tigers-pitching-newbies.html 野手:http://www.t75n.com/2010-articles/april/looking-at-the-tigers-newbies.html Rick Porcello TBF: 92 H: 33 HR: 2 K%: 14.1 BB%: 6.5 GB%: 56.3 FIP: 4.35 I was a bit mystified early in the season when the general consensus among Tiger fans seemed to be that Porcello was the Tigers' number two starter. After all, he is still very young and while his ERA and won-loss records were good, there was certainly a possibility they would lead to disappointment if they were more in line with his peripherals this year. It's true I expected the adjustment to go the other way - his peripherals would catch up to the results - but it just surprised me how often I heard something like "We have Verlander and Porcello, but after that..." 有點馬後炮…Wallace認為2010-season就把P帥當作Tigers rotation排在Verlander 之後NO'2 SP,是過於樂觀而終致失望收場(期望越大失望越大),畢竟P帥年輕多金又帥, 成績也很傲人,二年級症候群總要面臨一些掙扎調整,還真被作者言中了…嘿嘿嘿… Well, if you've ever made a confident statement about what you believe will happen in a baseball season, you should know by now that the sport has a way of making you feel like you don't know as much as you thought. Porcello's peripherals have been better this season. He's striking batters out at an improved rate. He's maintained his low walk rate. He's getting more ground balls and giving up home runs at a lower rate. In short, he is indeed pitching at a level that would lead us to expect an ERA close to what he achieved last year. Yet his ERA is very close to four runs higher than what it was last year, when all the cited indications point to his pitching worse. 如果你是位錢球數據派,認為一切成績都可以靠計算來預測合理化,那P帥現今的表現可能會讓你懷疑:是不是還遺漏些甚麼?? 跟去年相比,P帥的投球內容幾乎都更進一步,K%上升 B%一樣低 GB% 跟被全壘率都更優異,換來的卻是多了近4分的ERA,到底是為什麼~~~~~~ How to explain it? His velocity doesn't seem to be down. Hitters don't seem to be making significantly better contact (12.7 LD% compared 17.1% last year) and there are no stark differences in contact rates or hitting the strike zone. He's simply the victim of more hits falling in. Last year, BABIP was his friend(.281). This year, Porcello is looking at BABIP (.427) and realizing their relationship has soured quickly. Even if they don't get back to warm and cuddly terms, they're not going to keep up the combative stage they're currently going through. Aaron Harang was the most unfortunate starter in the majors last year with a BABIP of .339. Predictably, he also led the league's starters in line drive percentage (23.7). 繼續故弄玄虛…P帥球速沒有下降,球路未被破解(LD%從17.1%降至12.7 LD%),其他一切數據也沒退步,所以…真相只有一個!! BABIP!! P帥目前BABIP為.427對照去年.281,這到底有多不幸呢?? 去年球季BABIP最慘的投手 Aaron Harang也只有.339,而且他的LD%23.7是P帥快兩倍… Both of those facts are obviously way out of whack with where Porcello is right now. He's seeing ten percent more of his hits fall in than Harang did last year despite a line drive percentage that's half of what Harang's was. That WILL NOT hold up over the season. Once his BABIP gets more in line with reality, we'll see if he can get his rate of stranding runners (currently 62.8%) back up closer to normal (around 70%) as well. 身為今年投手的地獄倒楣鬼,很難解釋為什麼P帥的LD%只有Harang一半, BABIP卻多了一成,只能期待這樣的壞運氣趕快跑掉,讓一切成績回到正常 PS:也許可以跟A-JAX一起研究BABIP的神秘力量 I know it's difficult to have watch what Porcello has done so far and just take it on faith that things will get better. Still, that's just what the Tigers should do until they get a better indicator that this is more than a run of bad luck. 看著年輕有為的好青年如此掙扎是件難受的事情,但總會有雨過天晴的一天,當一切回歸正軌,壞運氣不在,P帥的成績"一定"會好看點,到時候才會是我們觀察的時刻. 眉批:用壞運氣當作答案是玄了點,我只希望真是如此,且趕快回復正常吧,P帥上場控球也開始變差,且出現upset…年輕人要撐下去啊~~好表現就從這場開始!! -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 114.44.169.24