warmoctobernights Arizona Diamondbacks Top …
Already with a core of young offensive players that could comprise the heart
of their lineup at a bargain price for years, the Diamondbacks used their #1
pick in 2005 on Justin Upton, arguably the best player in the draft. Wow. If
they can sign Justin, he’ll add one more dimension to their potential venomous
snake bite. Uh, I mean their really good future offense. After Upton, however,
the team addressed its lack of pitching depth by selecting college arms with
their next five picks, another smart move.
1.Carlos Quentin (OF): A Moneyball-esque wunderkind, Quentin has a great eye,
good power and even a good ability to hit for average. He’s even willing to
take one for the team, normally leading his leagues in hit by pitches. Nothing
not to like here; expect Quentin making an impact next season.
2.Stephen Drew (SS): As a shortstop, Drew could end up one of the top bats at
the position in all of baseball, and it looks like he might just stick there.
The general consensus is that Upton will be moved to CF once he signs, leaving
shortstop as Drew’s position to lose.
3.Conor Jackson (1B): One of the best bats in the minors, the only thing holding
Jackson back is his struggles in the field. For now, it looks like he’ll be
blocked in 2006 by Tony Clark, but it shouldn’t take long for Conor to force
his way into the lineup, lead glove at first or not. His bat control is nearly
unparalleled, as evidenced by his 32/69 K/BB rate; that’s really impressive
for a guy who also hits for power.
4.Carlos Gonzales (OF): Still a youngster, Gonzales has more tools than Tim
Allen, and unlike some raw-skills players, has already put up some nice numbers
at 19 in A-ball: .307/.371/.489 to be specific. He’s not quite “elite” yet,
but a nice campaign in 2006 will push him over the edge.
5.Miguel Montero (C): After a player has a season out of line with the rest of
their career, there’s reason to be skeptical, and that’s exactly what Montero
did this season. He flashed tremendous power for a catcher, beating out his
previous high slugging percentage by about 200 points. While I’m not
completely sold on his future, he certainly has the capability to end up a
major league catcher.
6.Matt Torra (RHP): The 31st pick in the 2005 draft, Torra has a huge year in
college, rocketing him towards the top of most teams’ draft boards. He only
started two professional games after signing with the D-Backs, however, so ther
e’s not much workable data to judge him by. The 110 strikeouts he racked up
compared to 16 walks allowed during his year at U-Mass certainly hint at good
things in the future.
7.Garrett Mock (RHP): An interesting prospect, whose stats tell a similarly
interesting story. First off, the standard: his K/BB was a very impressive
160/33 in 174 innings. Right there qualifies him for this list, especially in
a system with few pitching prospects. Looking more closely at his numbers
confuses the story, however. His RA was a very unimpressive 4.90 as compared
to his ERA of 4.18. A partial explanation for this is his BABIP against, which
was an astronomical .335. Quickly looking at his college results shows it was
probably an aberration, due possibly to poor defensive performances while he
was on the mound, since his career doesn’t hold consistently high BABIP against.
What does this all mean? Basically, his season was a bit better than it looks
initially. Then again, it was also his best season in terms of K/BB ratio, by
quite a bit, so who knows what to expect going forward. My best guess is Mock
ends up a serviceable #4 type starter if he stays healthy.
8.Sergio Santos (SS): Santos may have the skills necessary to be a major league
shortstop, possessing good hands, range, and some pop in his bat, but with Drew
in the system, I can’t see him getting too many starts there. A move to 2B
seems logical, but he’s also a good trade candidate; a lot of his value is
tied to his defense, and moving him to 2B limits that a bit. I’m not big on
his hitting abilities, but for a middle infielder, they’ll get him by.
9.Chris Carter (1B): I’m a big fan of Carter’s combo attack of power and
patience, but unfortunately he’s hindered by both a better hitting 1B in front
of him in Conor Jackson, along with a complete lack of defensive prowess. A
smart AL team will probably try and trade for him, with intentions of making
him a permanent DH, where his bat may produce 25-30 home runs a year coupled
with a good OBP.
10.Dustin Nippert (RHP): A good way to return from Tommy John surgery is to win
the Southern League ERA title, so I guess Dustin decided to do just that. With
a very good curveball that keeps hitters off balance, inducing a lot of ground
balls, Nippert’s a good bet to make it to the big leagues very soon. It’s
tough to predict how he’ll handle much advanced hitters from those he’s faced
in his minor league career, but there will likely be some growing pains: his
control often falters, and one nice pitch won’t be enough for him to work out
of jams.
Pitching Depth, Unsigned Superspects, and More!
-Matt Elliot (RHP): No, his stats aren’t a mirage induced by the desert sun,
he really did have nearly 12 strikeouts per 9 innings, and only gave up 1 homer
in 54.2 innings. A relief prospect to keep an eye on.
-Enrique Gonzalez (RHP): Though undersized a bit, this 23 year old Venezuelan
may have enough skills to eventually make the big leagues as a swingman/long
reliever.
-Andy Green (IF): Yeah, he’s 28 and already in the prime of his career, but
Arizona could do a lot worse than to bring him up and make him a key bench
player for the next few seasons.
-Matt Green (RHP): Matt struggled in the transition from college to pro ball,
but his arm has some definite potential in it.
-Scott Hairston (2B): Scott has proved all he can in AAA, and is ready to jump
in at second. Don’t expect numbers as impressive as what he posted in the PCL,
but he should be adequate offensively.
-Josh Kroeger (OF): Might not ever become an everyday player, but Kroeger
profiles at least as a 4th outfielder.
-Kyler Newby (RHP): A draft-and-follow player selected in the 50th round, Newby
is a good story with a good name. Oh, and he had a K/BB of 66/14 in just over
40 innings. He’s too far away from the majors to get a good read, but pegging
him as a future member of the ‘Zona ‘pen isn’t ridiculous.
-Cesar Nicolas (1B): A power hitting college infielder who made a smooth
transition to pro-ball, Cesar is another young ‘back who carries the
“sleeper” tag.
-Micah Owings (RHP): Another 2005 draft pick, this time a 3rd rounder, Micah
has looked like a quality choice thus far in limited action.
-Erik Schindewolf (2B): Armed with the best James-Bond-Villain name since Blake
Hawksworth, Erik has done his best to enamor fans of the base on balls, walking
87 times in under 400 at bats. His power isn’t as intimidating as his last
name, however, so for now he looks like a utility type.
-Greg Smith (LHP): My personal favorite D-Back sleeper pick for a nice
campaign next year, Smith showed good control the ability to make batters
miss in his debut after being drafted in the 6th round.
-Justin Upton (SS/CF): Not yet a Diamondback, but once he is, Upton jumps
immediately to the front of their “top prospects” list, and near the top of
all prospects in baseball. He’s got more game than Hasbro – and I mean
including all releases under their Parker Brothers and Milton Bradley labels.
-Jon Zeringue (OF): After a very impressive 2004 debut, Zeringue negated a lot
of his positive first impression by toiling all season in AA this year. It’d
be easy to just give up on him, but his college career suggests that he’s got
a better bat than he displayed in ’05, so he shouldn’t completely fall off
prospect radars. Having not seen him at all this season, I’m not sure what
went wrong, but in the past his swing seemed to have a lot of power potential
in it. His status slipped, undoubtedly, but until he either repeats this low
level of performance or something else explains it, I’m not calling him a
bust.
Just to update this list for any curious readers:
1) Justin Upton
2) Carlos Quentin
3) Stephen Drew
4) Chris Young
5) Conor Jackson
6) Carlos Gonzales
7) Miguel Montero
8) Matt Torra
9) Garrett Mock
10) Dustin Nippert
Nipper gets the nod over Chris Carter, mostly because Carter has absolutely
nowhere to play on the Diamondbacks. He’s definitely trade bait at this point,
in my opinion. Either way, this is a scary-good top 10.
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