Looking Ahead: The Shape of the Second Half
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6442
節錄重點
National League West
This has been a three-team race all season, and it should continue to be one
the rest of the way, as the San Diego Padres (49-38) lead the Los Angeles
Dodgers (49-40) by one game, while the Arizona Diamondbacks (47-43) are just
3.5games back. At 5.5games back, the Colorado Rockies are angling to make it
a four-team race, while the relevancy of the San Francisco Giants (38-48) ends
pretty much as soon as Barry Bonds hits 756.
The Diamondbacks brought left-hander Randy Johnson (4-3, 3.81, 1.3 SNLVAR) back
to the desert in an offseason trade with the New York Yankees and looked at him
as the final piece to a potential contender. While the Diamondbacks are indeed
contending, they may have to have their second-half run without Johnson, who is
feeling pain in his back that was surgically repaired over the winter. The
Snakes may never see classic vintage Johnson again, but they will have a hard
time staying in the race if he doesn’t regain at least some of his old form.
All things being equal, the Diamondbacks would like to stand pat, but they have
an excess of corner infielders in first basemen Tony Clark (.211/.267/.450,
-1.3 VORP) and Conor Jackson (.266/.366/.399, 5.1 VORP) and third basemen Mark
Reynolds (.272/.337/.517, 8.2 VORP) and Chad Tracy (.263/.343/.462, 7.4 VORP)
and may need to move one to acquire a replacement for Johnson or a frontline
set-up reliever to use in front of closer Jose Valverde (0-3, 2.83, 26 saves,
1.961 WRXL).
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