[情報] ESPN DBacks-Rockies Series Breakdown
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With Arizona and Colorado facing off in one of the best three-game series of
this weekend, let's take a look at the strengths and weaknesses of the two
clubs, with one eye on their matchup and the other on how they line up in the
race for the NL West title.
Arizona's strengths
The Diamondbacks' major move this offseason was to add innings sponge Dan
Haren to their rotation, slotting him in as the No. 2 starter behind Brandon
Webb. Haren, who started last year's All-Star Game for the American League,
gains by moving to the easier league but leaves the friendly confines of
Oakland's home park, with copious foul ground and deep fences. He follows
Webb, one of the best starters in the game, an extreme ground-baller with
above-average control.
The Rockies will face Webb on Saturday, bookended by Micah Owings, who also
has plus control and swings a potent stick for a pitcher, and Edgar Gonzalez,
another strike-thrower who has been extremely homer-prone and pitches in the
wrong ballpark for that style.
When they get a late lead, the D-backs have a quartet of outstanding
relievers to throw at opponents. Newly acquired Chad Qualls pounds the strike
zone and gets ground balls, so while his style is different from Jose
Valverde's (for whom he was traded), his results should be just as good. He
joins closer Brandon Lyon (fresh off a blown save on Wednesday), Tony Pena,
and Juan Cruz, three hard throwers who were all top performers last year. And
credit manager Bob Melvin for his skillful deployment of his relievers in
2007. Three Arizona relievers ranked in the top 14 in baseball in Relievers'
Expected Wins Added, a Baseball Prospectus statistic that measures
performance as well as leverage, or how the relievers were used. Melvin got
his best relievers into games where they could do the most to increase
Arizona's chances of winning, and he did so better than any other manager in
baseball.
Arizona also has a chance to be one of the better defensive clubs in the
league when their top lineup is on the field. Orlando Hudson is among the
best second basemen in baseball, with good range on ground balls and a great
knack for catching pop flies. An Eric Byrnes-Chris Young-Justin Upton
outfield includes three guys who could play center field every day. And
Stephen Drew is athletic enough to become an above-average shortstop,
although he's not there yet.
Arizona's weaknesses
The Diamondbacks scored fewer runs in 2007 than any NL team other than San
Francisco and Washington, both bad teams playing in pitcher's parks. The fuel
for Arizona's offensive ineptitude was its inability to put men on base, as
they finished dead last in the league with a .321 OBP. That's likely to
improve somewhat as their young hitters gain experience and see their batting
averages rise, but they're still dependent on a number of hitters who've
shown no propensity to work the count or take a walk, including the hacker
Mark Reynolds, Byrnes and Young.
Young posted great walk rates in the minors, but he has to get his bat
started early and doesn't have much of a chance to adjust to off-speed
pitches at the big-league level. So despite its strength in several areas of
run prevention and the 90 games they'll play in hitter's parks, Arizona will
be hard-pressed to score much more than 800 runs this year. Their impatience
certainly favors Colorado's Saturday starter, Jeff Francis. The 27-year-old
left-hander has a fringy fastball but plus command and can take advantage of
hitters with poor plate discipline.
Colorado's strengths
The Rockies had arguably the best defense in the National League in 2007, and
if anything they've improved their defense up the middle this year with the
substitution of Jayson Nix for Kaz Matsui. Troy Tulowitzki nearly won the
Rookie of the Year award on the strength of his defensive reputation; he has
great range in both directions, good hands, and a plus arm. Nix won't hit,
but he's above-average at second base, and the Rockies should turn plenty of
double plays with that keystone combination.
They're strong in center with Willy Taveras and Ryan Spilborghs, and are only
weak in their outfield corners, especially with converted first baseman Brad
Hawpe playing right.
The front end of the Rockies' bullpen was one of the best in baseball last
year, and they return the top two arms in Manny Corpas and Brian Fuentes.
Corpas, probably forever doomed to a ceiling of the second-best reliever to
come out of Panama, has a filthy two-seamer that hitters pound into the
ground, while Fuentes comes at hitters from a sidearm angle but gets his
fastball in to right-handed hitters and doesn't have the severe platoon split
that most sidearmers have.
Colorado's weaknesses
The Rockies' run to the playoffs last year was fueled by several factors that
no longer apply. Their rotation returns Francis as the ace, but he's followed
by question marks. Ubaldo Jimenez has a live arm but walked more than 100
batters during the regular season last year between the minors and majors,
and he wasn't any better in spring training, walking 10 men and hitting five
in just under 20 innings.
They've replaced Josh Fogg with Kip Wells and brought back late-season
addition Mark Redman, neither of whom has even been league-average since
2003. And hard-throwing starter Franklin Morales, one of the surprise aces of
the Rockies' playoff run last year, showed reduced velocity and poor control
all through spring training and was pushed to the fifth spot in the rotation.
Arizona will face Redman, Francis, and Morales; if Morales returns to his
2007 form, the Sunday matchup against Gonzalez heavily favors the Rockies.
Their bullpen lost a major cog when LaTroy Hawkins chose to sign with the
Yankees, trading places with Luis Vizcaino, who was coming off a year that
started and ended poorly. Vizcaino missed time in March with a stiff elbow
and his command has been terrible, culminating in a four-run pounding
Wednesday night against St. Louis. The downgrade from Hawkins to Vizcaino
leaves the Rockies without a good right-handed setup option to complement
Fuentes and help get the ball to Corpas.
Their offense is almost completely intact from last year, but one weakness in
the lineup was exposed in the World Series, when it became clear that most of
the Rockies' hitters struggle against good fastballs. The Red Sox exploited
this weakness in shutting the Rockies down in four games, and you can bet
that most NL opponents caught on to this. In this series, the Rockies won't
face a lot of heat from the Arizona starters, but if the Diamondbacks take a
lead into the late innings, they have several relievers who can light up the
gun, including Lyon, Pena, and Cruz.
Keith Law, formerly the special assistant to the general manager for the
Toronto Blue Jays, is the senior baseball analyst for Scouts Inc.
Arizona's Achilles' heel
2007 National League ranks
Batting average 16th (.250)
On-base percentage 16th (.321)
Runs 14th (714)
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04/06 11:44, , 1F
04/06 11:44, 1F
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