Re: Hot stove round table: Part 4

看板Diamondbacks作者chadtracy (無名)時間18年前 (2007/12/19 02:14)推噓9(9推 0噓 1→)

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※ 引述《abc12812 (abc12812)》之銘言： http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/hot-stove-round-table-part-4/ A's trade Dan Haren and Connor Robertson to the Diamondbacks for Carlos Gonzalez, Brett Anderson, Chris Carter, Aaron Cunningham, Greg Smith, Dana Eveland 運動家把Dan Haren跟Connor Robertson拿來與響尾蛇的Carlos Gonzales, Brett Andersion,Chris Carter,Aaron Cunningham, Greg Smith,Dana Eveland交換 Geoff Young: This seems to help both teams. The A's have followed a similar path before, with Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, and Barry Zito, so it should come as no surprise that they would move Haren. Of the guys they're getting in return, I like Gonzalez the best, although Carter and Eveland could turn into something . I expect the NL West to remain one of the most competitive divisions in baseball, with Arizona probably the early favorites. Geoff Young: 看來對交易的兩隊都有幫助，運動家照著之前小蜜蜂、探員跟雞頭相似的老路繼續走下去，所以會這樣交易掉丹哈倫並沒有太大意外。在交易回來的新秀裡面最得人喜歡的的應該是Gonzales，而Carter跟Eveland也可能會長出來，而西區應該還是競爭最激烈的分區，而亞歷桑那應該會是比較早受到季後賽恩寵的。 Chris Constancio: In my opinion, this package of prospects is comparable to the rumored offers for Santana. You can also make a case that overall the package of prospects is comparable to what the Marlins got for Cabrera and Willis, though Arizona didn't send anyone with the upside of Andrew Miller. Chris Constancio:照劣者的看法，打包過來的新秀拿來跟山大王還有馬林魚的火車還有小卡布的交易來看的話，亞利桑那並沒有送到像是Andrew miller那個等級的選手 Carlos Gonzalez is a top tier prospect. Scouts and coaches have questioned his focus and attitude on the field for some time now, but the 21-year-old is an athletic outfielder with above-average power potential. Brett Anderson is now Oakland's best pitching prospect. At only 19 years old, Anderson cruised through the Midwest League and California League, posting an above-average strikeout rate, walk rate, and groundball rate at both stops. He isn't particularly athletic and doesn't throw hard, so he might get labeled as a mid-rotation "finesse" pitcher by the time he gets to the major leagues. His performance has been special, however. 而Carlos Gonazles是第一等的新秀，而多數的球探跟教練都對他在球場上的專注力跟態度有所質疑，但他只是個21歲有運動能力而且還有長打潛力的外野手。 Brett Anderson現在是奧克蘭最好的頭號新秀，Anderson在中西聯盟跟加州聯盟中闖蕩並在三振保送率、以及滾飛比兩個項目中，交出了超出平均的成績。他並不是一個特別的運動選手，而且投的並不吃力，所以在大聯盟的話他可能會被註記是一個中段輪值的好選擇，不管怎樣，目前他的成績表現已經相當特別了。 Eveland and Smith, both left-handed pitchers, profile as more average pitchers who could help the A's right away. Eveland is only a year removed from being one of the most effective pitchers in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League. Eveland跟Smith都是左手投手，而且是數據看起來都是超過平均的投手，也都是馬上可以成為運動家的即戰力。隔一年傷癒復出的Eveland之前是3A太平洋聯盟裡面最有效率的投手之一 Carter, a first baseman, and Cunningham, an outfielder, are both a few years away but greatly improve the organization's depth among position players. Cunningham was one of my choices for a breakout season in 2007, and he didn't disappoint as the 21-year-old demonstrated a well-rounded offensive skills in the Carolina League and Southern League this year. Although he probably won't be a star, I think only a freak injury could stop his ascent to the major leagues as a good fourth outfielder or better. Carter(一壘手)、Cunningham(外野手)可能距離大聯盟還有幾年，但對農場的深度來說是個大捕丸。因為之前受傷的緣故，所以年初時我覺得Cunningham今年可能會大突破的一年，而21歲他的並沒有因為之前受傷而氣餒，在加州跟南方聯盟表現出具備全能攻擊技巧的成績。雖說他可能不會是一個球星，但除非受了很難搞定的傷，不然應該蠻有機會長成第四號或是更好順序的外野手。 Carter is limited to a future at first base or as a designated hitter but his upside is considerable. If you thought his 25 home runs 2007 were impressive, wait until you see what he does when he's another year older, leaves his pitcher-friendly home ballpark, and heads to the California League next year! Carter的條件受限於他只能當一壘或是指定打擊，但他的成長幅度還是可以被考慮的。如果你覺得2007年的25發就很印象深刻的話，就再等他一年吧，等他離開這個隊投手有利的的主場，到加州聯盟去的話，會有更好的表現。 Although Arizona gives up a lot of prospects, they already have a solid core of young talent and now have a good and affordable No. 2 starter for their rotation. Oakland avoids adding talent to a competitor in the American League and their farm system suddenly looks above average. It's a deal that works well for both teams, in my opinion. 雖然亞利桑那給了一托辣庫的新秀，但他們已經有一個很穩固的新血核心，而現在他們有了一個一個很棒、拿得出去的二號投手在他們的投手輪值裡面，而奧克蘭也避免了其他可能資敵的交易，而他們現在的農場深度看起來馬上就超越聯盟平均，在我看來，這是一個互利的交易。 John Beamer: The trade that the Yankees dared not make. Any time you make a six to two swap you're going to come out with something. The A's farm system isn't what it used to be, with few stellar prospects in the ranks. Beane figured that with the Angels strengthening, the odds are on a few fallow years for his Oakland team. Rather than doing a Houston and trying to contend when they probably can't, Oakland has entered rebuilding mode. John Beamer:這個交易看來就是基佬不敢做的，當你要做這種六換二的交易時候就可能要出些好料。而運動家的農場向來就是養不出太多的明星。而豆子爺眼見天使不斷加強戰力下與其跟他拼上太空還拼不倒不如把可能的機會賭在拼這幾年的農場，所以奧克蘭進了重建期。 Haren is getting $16 million over the next three years and is worth probably $18-20 million in the free agent market. That is a big surplus in value that the A's have given away. Carter and Cunningham are the linchpins of the deal from Oakland's perspective and they both project well. Evaluating minor league talent is not easy but these guys do have the potential to be stars. Oakland is thinking about its new park and this trade increases the odd of contending then 哈倫這三年會拿到1600萬的薪水，而他在自由市場的身價大概是年平均1800~2000左右。而這是運動家能放掉他拿到的大量的殘值新秀的理由。Carter跟Cunningham是這個交易裡面的關鍵點，而且這個交易如他們所預期的好。當然評估新秀是不容易的事情，而這些新秀看起來都有機會成為球星，而奧克蘭在思考新球場以及這個交易所帶來的未來競爭機會。 This trade vastly improves the Diamondbacks. With Haren and Webb the Snakes have the best pitching in the National League. Are they favorites for the NL West? Probably. Not only do they have a great rotation but their crop of youngsters have one more year of experience under their belt. However, let's not get too giddy. Although there is some evidence to suggest that teams can outpeform their pythag record it is unlikley to be that big an effect (perhaps a couple of games). Don't underestimate how lucky the Snakes were in 2007 to play in the post season. They are a much better team with the addition of Haren and will be on the playoff bubble. 2008 will be exciting in the West. 這個交易對響尾蛇也是大進補，有了哈倫跟偉柏的蛇隊，成為了國聯最好的投手隊伍而他們是大家認為的西區冠軍後選?或許,但他們不只有一個很棒的先發輪值，而他們收割下來的新秀也因為今年拿下西區冠軍而更有了經驗。不管怎樣，我們就不要口說無憑雖然可能有些證據來佐證說這個球隊可能會有超出他們透過數學計算出來的紀錄表現，但這影響可能不會大到怎樣的地步，可能會有一兩場這樣。而千萬別低估他們在2007季後賽的幸運表現，再有了丹哈倫之後， 08年的季後賽，他們戰績可能因此沸騰，而08年的西區會很刺激。 Chris Jaffe: About 20 years ago, the Mets won 90 games despite being outscored by around 20 runs. However, they had a very young team, a well-respected manager, and in the offseason made a big splash by nabbing Gary Carter. Instead of falling back, they remained one of the best teams in the league for several years. Chris Jaffe:20年前梅子贏了九十場比賽，儘管他們得失分落後了20分左右。然而他們有一個非常年輕的隊伍，還有一個受人尊敬的教練在季後他們透過大交易拿到了Gary Carter之後雖然戰績衰退，但他們仍然是聯盟裡面那幾年戰績最好的幾支隊伍之一。 I think history is repeating itself. There's a lot of of-season left, so I can't say with any confidence who is the team to beat, but right now they're my provisional favorite to win the NL West. And with a rotation fronted by Brandon Webb and Haren, they should be damn tough to take down in the postseason. Expect Arizona to win their third pennant in the next two years. 我想歷史會一再重演的，現在距離開季還有一段時間，我等不及想看到哪一隻隊伍能扁倒他們，但至少目前我暫時覺得比較看好響尾蛇可以拿下國聯西區，而且有了緯柏跟跟哈倫的一二號先發的季後賽是很難被擊倒的。可以預期後兩年的西區競爭，亞利桑那會連莊三年。 Dave Studeman: Baseball fans might want to read the latest Baseball By the Numbers from Phil Birnbaum and SABR. Bill James has an article in there exactly about how teams that beat their Pythagorean projection did the next season. It confirms what you're saying. Dave Studeman:棒球迷可能想要讀一下Phil Birnbaum 跟SABR的最新一期Baseball by the numbers，Bill James有一篇文章標示出來為什麼某些球隊就是能打敗數學計量的預期數字，他們是怎麼辦到的，這就證實了他們的說詞。 Bryan Tsao: As an A's fan, I love Haren as a pitcher, but I'm beginning to think that the A's managed to sell high on him. While that may or may not mean that they got sufficient value for him, Haren has always been a streaky pitcher . He seemed to put it together better last year, but there's not much in his performance record to indicate that he will be able to replicate his stellar performance going forward. A reasonable expectation would be something between the 3.07 ERA he put up last season and his 4.31 career ERA. Bryan Tsao:身為一個運動家球迷，我喜歡哈倫這個投手，但我開始想到應該逢高出售他這也不一定說哈倫會有對應它身價的意思。而哈倫一直是個焦躁不安的投手雖然它看起來去年都把這些問題搞定了，有了好表現。但並沒有足夠的證據能佐證說哈倫之後會比現在更好。一個可以解釋的理由是他去年的防禦率是3.07但生涯平均是4.31。 I'm sure that Haren will be great for the Diamondbacks, with some otherworldly stretches when the splitter is diving well, but he will likely go through a few rough patches when he starts leaving it up in the zone. I just hope that the Diamondbacks and their fans aren't disappointed if the Haren they get is last season's Haren, and value him for very good pitcher that he is. 我想哈倫會是響尾蛇的好選擇，有著超乎別人的手臂伸展幅度的話，他的Splitter會掉得很漂亮，但應該會有一陣子的調整期，如果哈倫表現沒有去年好的話，我希望響尾蛇跟他們的球迷不要太過失望。 Also, the fact that different people are touting different prospects that the A's got is very promising to me. I think Beane did a great job of getting a return on Haren. We got over Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson, and hopefully some day Gonzalez or Anderson or Carter will be helping us get over Haren. 而且對一個運動家球迷來說，在這個一堆人在兜售自己新秀的方案裡面，球隊有做到對球迷的承諾，我想豆子爺作了件很棒的交易，而且從哈倫身上拿回很多回報。我們已經從探員跟小蜜蜂拿了一堆東西回來，哪天我們也可能從Gonzales跟Anderson, Carter身上拿回彌補哈倫的身價。 Diamondbacks trade Alberto Callapso to the Royals for Billy Buckner 響尾蛇拿出Alberto Callapso跟皇家交易Billy Buckner Chris Constancio: Looks like a small trade, but I think this represents a solid incremental improvement for the Royals. Buckner has some upside but probably won't be more than a fifth starter for any competitive team. Callaspo is an exceptional contact hitter, and he has complemented those skills with above-average plate discipline since leaving the Angels organization. In other words, he could be a Dustin Pedroia-like hitter with the versatility to play any infield position. I think Callaspo will be the Royals' starting second baseman by July. Chris Constancio:看起來像是個小交易，但這對皇家來說代表一個穩定的進階改善 Buckner看起來還不錯，但頂多只是個五號先發的料。但Callaspo是個很棒的Contact Hitter，而他相關的技術也已經成熟，在離開天使的小聯盟後，他有著比平均來說更好的選球能力。他看起來會是一個Pedoria那樣有著加強版多才多藝的內野球員。我想他在七月的時候會進入皇家的先發二壘輪值裡面。 The caveat here is that Callaspo has some history of domestic violence. I won't pretend to know how serious this is and whether or not it will lead to distractions in the future. 而警告是，Callaspo有著家暴的歷史，我不想假裝說我知不知道這個有多嚴重或許可能或是不會對他未來場上的表現有什麼不良影響。 Diamondbacks trade Jose Valverde to the Astros for Chad Qualls, Chris Burke and Juan Gutierrez 響尾蛇把Jose Valverde拿去給太空人換回Chad Qualls, Chris Burke跟Juan Gutierrez Geoff Young: The Astros are a puzzle to me. It looks like Ed Wade and company are trying to leverage the NL Central's general weakness into a division title. I'm not sure they have the guns to justify moving this aggressively this soon, but I guess they figure since there's no real dominant team in the division, they might as well go for it. We'll see how it works for them. Valverde is a solid reliever and a name brand. Still, I'm not sure that a "proven closer" should be Houston's top priority right now. Geoff Young；太空人對來說像是個謎團，我實在搞不懂。看起來Ed Wade跟球團想要利用國聯中區的共同弱點拿到分區冠軍。 (啥，人人有機會，各各沒把握嗎?) 我不太清楚他們急於去做這個很侵略性的交易來証明些什麼但我猜他們看到這個分區裡面沒有絕對優勢的隊伍而他們有機會透過這樣可以好整以瑕的拿下分區。我們就等著看他們要怎麼做，Valverde是個很穩定的救援而且有著救援王的加持。但我並不確定這樣一個已經是完成體的救援投手會是太空人的急迫選擇。 -- 將就一點看吧，很久沒翻外電了。 ※ 編輯: chadtracy 來自: 59.112.48.133 (12/19 03:04)