[閒聊] 一些預測

看板Diamondbacks作者abc12812 (abc12812)時間18年前 (2008/01/31 15:40)推噓3(3推 0噓 2→)

留言5則, 4人參與討論串1/1

請參考fangraphs http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?team=Diamondbacks&season=2007 Bill James: G AB H 1B 2B 3B HR R RBI BB SO SB CS AVG Conor Jackson 136 468 138 86 35 1 16 71 76 62 54 2 1 .295 Orlando Hudson 151 563 159 108 33 6 12 77 68 62 90 8 4 .282 Eric Byrnes 146 521 139 87 31 3 18 79 66 43 86 28 7 .267 Mark Reynolds 135 490 144 82 31 5 26 92 86 55 145 3 2 .294 Jeff Salazar 75 145 39 25 9 2 3 21 16 17 24 6 2 .269 Tony Clark 85 190 46 25 9 0 12 24 36 19 54 0 0 .242 Chris Snyder 120 380 96 59 22 0 15 41 56 49 75 0 0 .253 Chad Tracy 133 487 139 83 36 2 18 67 68 48 90 2 1 .285 Augie Ojeda 55 120 29 23 5 0 1 15 11 14 13 1 1 .242 Justin Upton 130 490 136 76 32 9 19 76 74 56 100 16 9 .278 Miguel Montero 70 220 57 37 10 0 10 26 38 23 34 0 0 .259 Stephen Drew 150 545 143 93 30 5 15 68 65 55 93 8 3 .262 Chris Young 148 557 141 68 37 3 33 93 79 52 122 28 8 .253 W L ERA G GS IP H HR BB HBP SO Brandon Webb 16 10 3.39 32 32 236.0 218 16 77 7 187 Doug Davis 10 11 4.36 32 32 188.0 192 19 85 5 143 Yusmeiro Petit 3 4 4.14 18 11 63.0 64 10 19 1 49 Edgar Gonzalez 5 7 4.76 31 12 102.0 115 15 26 6 69 Micah B Owings 9 10 4.28 29 28 166.0 173 17 57 13 124 Dan Haren 13 11 3.72 32 32 213.0 211 26 52 6 168 Brandon Lyon 4 4 4.13 70 0 72.0 78 7 21 1 44 Tony Pena 5 3 3.53 72 0 79.0 71 8 24 4 57 Juan Cruz 4 3 3.75 52 0 60.0 51 6 29 5 63 Dustin Nippert 2 3 4.30 39 0 46.0 47 4 21 1 41 Doug Slaten 2 1 3.48 57 0 31.0 29 2 13 1 32 Chad Qualls 5 4 3.83 76 0 80.0 78 9 24 5 62 CHONE: AB H 1B 2B 3B HR R RBI BB SO SB CS AVG Conor Jackson 439 126 80 29 2 15 70 69 57 56 2 2 .287 Orlando Hudson 520 146 98 30 6 12 77 75 62 82 8 3 .281 Eric Byrnes 574 159 101 33 4 21 95 70 50 94 27 5 .277 Mark Reynolds 464 122 73 26 3 20 64 74 46 133 2 2 .263 Jeff Salazar 466 120 77 27 5 11 61 57 53 82 13 6 .258 Tony Clark 245 59 34 10 1 14 35 36 24 67 0 0 .241 Chris Snyder 312 78 49 17 1 11 43 40 40 65 0 0 .250 Chad Tracy 536 149 91 35 3 20 80 86 54 97 2 1 .278 Augie Ojeda 284 71 53 13 2 3 33 28 30 35 2 1 .250 Emilio Bonifacio 548 139 106 24 5 4 61 54 34 109 42 15 .254 Justin Upton 500 130 81 28 5 16 66 66 46 115 14 9 .260 Miguel Montero 397 103 67 20 1 15 53 52 37 67 2 2 .259 Stephen Drew 522 140 90 31 4 15 69 68 56 91 7 2 .268 Chris Young 512 133 71 33 3 26 91 68 53 119 28 7 .260 ERA IP H R ER HR BB HBP SO Brandon Webb 3.49 222.0 214 92 86 16 67 6 173 Doug Davis 4.50 196.0 201 106 98 22 95 6 146 Randy Johnson 3.81 144.0 130 66 61 18 42 7 131 Yusmeiro Petit 4.70 136.0 139 77 71 23 51 5 96 Edgar Gonzalez 4.34 143.0 149 75 69 20 41 6 89 Micah B Owings 4.50 134.0 139 73 67 18 47 8 95 Dan Haren 3.62 221.0 209 96 89 26 55 6 198 Brandon Lyon 4.09 66.0 69 33 30 7 21 2 44 Tony Pena 4.14 87.0 85 43 40 10 31 4 65 Juan Cruz 3.72 75.0 63 33 31 7 37 4 83 Dustin Nippert 4.77 100.0 103 57 53 13 47 4 82 Doug Slaten 4.11 46.0 45 22 21 5 19 2 40 Chad Qualls 3.73 82.0 78 37 34 8 28 4 68 Brandon Medders 4.44 75.0 75 40 37 9 34 3 57 Marcel: AB H 1B 2B 3B HR R RBI BB SO SB CS AVG Conor Jackson 429 123 82 26 1 14 62 64 52 62 3 1 .287 Orlando Hudson 500 141 95 28 7 11 70 62 54 79 9 3 .282 Eric Byrnes 553 147 92 31 5 19 81 71 45 92 29 4 .266 Mark Reynolds 360 102 64 20 3 15 59 58 37 103 2 1 .283 Jeff Salazar 228 63 43 14 1 5 35 30 25 46 5 1 .276 Tony Clark 301 78 46 13 1 18 40 58 30 76 2 1 .259 Chris Snyder 356 91 59 20 1 11 40 49 43 77 2 1 .256 Chad Tracy 354 101 61 25 2 13 52 50 34 68 3 1 .285 Augie Ojeda 234 63 46 10 2 5 33 29 25 38 3 1 .269 Emilio Bonifacio 188 52 35 11 1 5 27 26 21 33 3 2 .277 Justin Upton 248 66 42 15 3 6 35 29 24 52 4 1 .266 Miguel Montero 286 73 48 13 1 11 40 46 28 49 3 1 .255 Stephen Drew 472 126 82 26 6 12 58 56 48 90 8 1 .267 Chris Young 470 119 69 25 2 23 71 60 40 104 19 4 .253 W L ERA SV IP H R ER HR BB SO Brandon Webb 14 9 3.39 0 202.0 189 84 76 14 57 158 Doug Davis 10 10 4.58 0 177.0 185 95 90 19 82 137 Randy Johnson 7 6 4.46 0 109.0 108 60 54 14 34 97 Yusmeiro Petit 4 4 4.88 0 72.0 77 41 39 11 24 54 Edgar Gonzalez 7 5 4.60 0 94.0 97 51 48 14 28 64 Micah B Owings 7 7 4.30 0 134.0 129 70 64 17 45 97 Dan Haren 12 10 3.80 0 194.0 190 89 82 22 50 160 Brandon Lyon 4 4 3.91 3 69.0 70 32 30 6 23 45 Tony Pena 4 4 3.93 1 71.0 64 35 31 8 25 53 Juan Cruz 4 3 4.17 0 69.0 63 36 32 7 32 69 Dustin Nippert 2 3 4.94 0 51.0 53 31 28 7 20 40 Doug Slaten 3 2 4.09 0 44.0 45 21 20 5 16 33 Chad Qualls 5 4 3.96 2 75.0 74 33 33 9 25 59 Brandon Medders 3 2 4.21 0 47.0 47 24 22 6 19 35 另外附上ZIPS預測 http://tinyurl.com/37dyb8 Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVERAGE 1B ------1b --- .287 .366 .498 --------------------------------------- AVERAGE LF ------lf ----.285 .373 .479 --------------------------------------- AVERAGE RF ------rf ----.285 .369 .481 --------------------------------------- Chad Tracy* 3b 28 .291 .360 .492 120 423 62 123 30 2 17 69 42 79 2 0 AVERAGE 3B ------3b ----.282 .366 .471 --------------------------------------- Conor Jackson 1b 26 .290 .372 .457 143 462 68 134 33 1 14 68 57 64 2 1 Orlando Hudson# 2b 30 .295 .368 .452 141 516 75 152 31 7 12 71 59 78 7 2 Tony Clark# 1b 36 .259 .326 .517 109 232 29 60 10 1 16 46 23 63 0 0 Mark Reynolds 3b 24 .274 .339 .481 143 486 71 133 29 3 22 82 45 158 2 2 Javier Brito 1b 25 .287 .358 .435 140 474 55 136 32 1 12 65 48 101 1 1 AVERAGE CF ------cf ----.279 .357 .443 --------------------------------------- Eric Byrnes lf 32 .278 .338 .455 134 508 77 141 29 5 17 74 39 80 28 4 AVERAGE 2B ------2b ----.284 .358 .432 --------------------------------------- Jamie D'Antona 3b 26 .288 .342 .447 130 483 56 139 34 2 13 68 38 74 1 1 AVERAGE SS ------ss ----.282 .349 .425 --------------------------------------- AVERAGE C --------c --- .267 .352 .421 --------------------------------------- Jeff Salazar* cf 27 .265 .345 .425 123 445 71 118 28 5 11 58 51 84 12 5 Jeff Cirillo 3b 38 .285 .346 .411 85 207 28 59 15 1 3 24 19 22 2 1 Robby Hammock c 31 .276 .336 .414 75 239 23 66 13 1 6 32 19 34 2 2 Chris Young cf 24 .245 .309 .467 151 567 80 139 33 3 29 96 48 124 23 6 Cyle Hankerd cf 23 .280 .335 .402 128 478 46 134 31 0 9 58 26 99 1 3 Miguel Montero* c 24 .249 .322 .417 120 362 34 90 16 0 15 53 36 58 0 1 Stephen Drew* ss 25 .260 .323 .408 156 578 64 150 30 7 14 73 54 104 6 1 Chris Snyder c 27 .244 .328 .403 108 320 34 78 18 0 11 44 37 72 0 1 Alex Romero# rf 24 .279 .329 .398 135 513 63 143 38 4 5 55 36 51 14 9 Chris Burke 2b 28 .254 .328 .379 129 398 64 101 24 1 8 45 35 66 16 5 Justin Upton cf 20 .248 .313 .404 154 572 64 142 33 4 16 74 48 138 19 12 Don Kelly* ss 28 .261 .330 .351 111 356 46 93 20 3 2 34 34 44 11 7 Augie Ojeda# ss 33 .249 .326 .324 107 281 38 70 13 1 2 25 29 30 3 0 Tim Raines Jr.# lf 28 .258 .300 .375 122 392 46 101 18 2 8 39 21 91 20 8 Dave Krynzel* cf 26 .220 .281 .356 104 337 44 74 16 3 8 39 26 91 12 6 Wilkin Castillo# c 24 .250 .279 .354 108 384 35 96 26 1 4 39 13 60 13 10 Emilio Bonifacio#2b 23 .245 .282 .312 142 564 72 138 26 3 2 46 27 117 36 15 Player Spotlight - Stephen Drew Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ DR Optimistic .283 .354 .462 162 600 79 170 35 9 18 88 66 97 12 1 105 -1 Mean .260 .323 .408 156 578 64 150 30 7 14 73 54 104 6 1 85 -5 Pessimistic .232 .287 .335 144 534 40 124 23 4 8 53 41 113 3 2 56 -9 Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Chris Speier, Andujar Cedeno Player Spotlight - Chris Young Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ DR Optimistic .270 .343 .528 161 608 101 164 39 5 36 117 62 121 34 5 117 4 Mean .245 .309 .467 151 567 80 139 33 3 29 96 48 124 23 6 94 1 Pessimistic .216 .272 .394 142 533 54 115 27 1 22 75 37 139 15 7 67 -3 Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Andruw Jones, Dale Murphy Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K Brandon Webb 29 3.01 18 7 31 31 224.0 203 75 12 53 180 Doug Slaten* 28 3.63 4 2 64 0 57.0 54 23 4 25 49 Juan Cruz 29 3.67 5 3 42 8 81.0 67 33 7 42 94 Tony Pena 26 3.69 7 4 74 0 83.0 79 34 8 26 59 Brandon Lyon 28 3.82 4 3 65 0 66.0 69 28 5 19 39 Chad Qualls 29 3.86 6 5 79 0 84.0 82 36 10 26 67 Bob Wickman 39 3.88 3 3 54 0 51.0 51 22 5 17 37 Danny Haren 27 3.92 14 11 33 33 216.0 214 94 27 46 177 Randy Johnson* 44 3.99 9 8 22 22 142.0 129 63 20 34 154 Max Scherzer 23 4.35 5 6 18 18 89.0 82 43 8 57 76 LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER ----- 4.44 ----------------------------------------------- Micah Owings 25 4.47 8 9 29 28 163.0 169 81 19 56 108 Brandon Medders 28 4.56 5 6 67 0 77.0 78 39 10 40 59 Doug Davis* 32 4.66 10 12 32 32 193.0 202 100 21 87 149 Jailen Peguero 27 4.78 4 4 64 0 79.0 78 42 9 45 60 Connor Robertson 26 4.79 3 4 45 0 62.0 65 33 7 29 49 Edgar Gonzalez 25 4.81 7 8 32 20 146.0 157 78 26 33 105 LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER ------ 4.87 ----------------------------------------------- Dustin Nippert 27 5.14 5 7 32 16 112.0 117 64 15 55 84 Brooks Brown 22 5.16 4 7 22 17 96.0 100 55 10 56 58 Leonel Rosales 27 5.22 4 5 46 0 50.0 53 29 8 22 40 Emiliano Fruto 24 5.34 4 7 36 10 91.0 90 54 10 68 64 Bill Murphy* 27 5.37 4 6 49 14 114.0 120 68 16 67 89 Yusmeiro Petit 23 5.49 6 11 32 24 141.0 159 86 26 52 86 Livan Hernandez 33 5.55 7 14 30 30 193.0 233 119 31 75 103 Billy Buckner 24 5.74 6 13 33 25 152.0 173 97 26 72 98 Esmerling Vasquez 24 5.85 5 9 30 24 120.0 141 78 19 71 88 Juan Gutierrez 24 5.94 5 11 29 26 153.0 173 101 27 64 89 Daniel Stange 22 6.00 3 7 45 0 48.0 52 32 8 30 40 Hector Ambriz 24 6.10 6 13 29 27 143.0 162 97 24 84 86 Matt Torra 24 6.15 4 9 19 19 101.0 121 69 17 45 56 Matt Green 26 6.66 4 12 25 25 127.0 157 94 28 61 68 Player Spotlight - Doug Davis ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Optimistic (15%) 3.78 13 10 34 34 212 203 89 17 80 171 124 Mean 4.66 10 12 32 32 193 202 100 21 87 149 101 Pessimistic (15%) 5.84 6 12 26 26 151 178 98 22 79 106 80 Top Near-Age Comps: Jim Bibby, Pat Rapp Player Spotlight - Brandon Webb ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Optimistic (15%) 2.50 20 5 32 32 234 196 65 10 51 204 188 Mean 3.01 18 7 31 31 224 203 75 12 53 180 156 Pessimistic (15%) 4.11 11 10 26 26 175 179 80 15 56 131 114 Top Near-Age Comps: Frank Sullivan, Roger Clemens -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.112.5.3