Player Profile: Max Scherzer
http://tinyurl.com/667u4
July 25, 2008 – 8:38 am
Introduction
Scherzer’s Repertoire
Max Scherzer is a three pitch pitcher; four seamed fastball, slider, and change
up. Here is a look at the movement of those three pitches.
Let’s take a look at these pitches one at a time starting with Scherzer’s
fastball. While Scherzer throws a four seamed fastball his 3/4 arm angle gives
his fastball more horizontal but less vertical movement than league average.
Scherzer also will drop down even further than that on occasion and unload a
fastball that has huge horizontal movement in towards a right handed batter.
You can see how his arm angle directly changes the movement on this pitch as
his arm angle lowers. Most pitchers who throw from a lower arm angle like
Scherzer don’t have quite the same giddy up on their fastballs trading some
velocity for increased movement. Velocity though isn’t a problem for Scherzer
who is average 94.5 MPH with his fastballs this year. That combination of
extra horizontal movement and plus speed is uncommon and really makes things
hard for right handed batters. Because Scherzer threw both in the rotation and
in the pen this year we can check his wear pattern to see how that transition
affected his fastball.
Even though Scherzer wasn’t on the roster in the beginning of the year and has
since been optioned back to AAA and then the DL I still am keeping a full view
of the current MLB season to give you a better idea of when Scherzer was
pitching and how his usage pattern once moving into the bullpen. The first
data point was Scherzer’s major league debut which was in relief but was 4 1/3
innings. The next three appearances were starts followed by six relief
appearances when the D’backs moved him back into the pen.
Notice that the move to the bullpen didn’t really change Scherzer’s fastball
much at all. He generally was throwing a few innings at a time so while he
wasn’t in short relief he also wasn’t exactly going a long distance either.
Generally, when a pitcher moves into the bullpen his velocity will go up a tick
or two but that has happened here. This is likely because either Scherzer was
still pacing himself like he was in the rotation or he was concerned that he
might lose control if he threw closer to a max fastball. Obviously, Scherzer
doesn’t really need a velocity bump as the difference between a MLB average
fastball (about 91.5 MPH) and Scherzer’s fastball is a much more important
differential than the differential from 94.5 MPH and say 97 MPH.
Scherzer’s slider is considered his best off speed pitch with some excellent
late break. I have to say I completely agree with this. Now, as every good
first year physics student knows, while the baseball is in flight it should be
breaking the same amount during the whole trip to home plate so what do I mean
by late break. Hopefully, what I mean by late break is the same thing that
scouts mean by late break. Specifically, that the off speed pitch appears very
similar to the fastball until close to home plate when it diverges and creates
the appearance of late break. Scherzer’s slider is a fantastic example of
this. Here is an averaged view of all his fastballs and sliders from the top
view.
Look at how similar the fastball and slider look until about 15 feet from home
plate (home plate is at 55 feet here and 0 is 5 feet 6 inches from the rubber)
when the slider bends away from a right handed batter and the fastball bends in
to a right handed batter. If the arm action and the spin don’t give the pitch
away the batter will already be swinging before any discernable difference
appears. When scouts watch a game they are likely not close enough to pick up
the spin of the ball so to them it looks like Scherzer’s slider isn’t
breaking until right near home plate when it leaves the plane of the fastball.
One other thing I want to mention is because Scherzer stands on the far right
of the rubber (from his point of view) and because he throws 3/4 arm angle the
ball really looks like it is coming from the right handed batters box. This is
very similar to the effect you see with many LOOGY pitchers who are so tough on
left handed batters. Scherzer was absolutely deadly against right handed
batters in the show hitting only .172/.289/.234 against him. This combination
of late break on his slider and pronounced release point is why.
A similar thing occurs with Scherzer’s change up. Here is a side view of that
pitch.
Look at how tight Scherzer’s change up sticks to his fastball until they
diverge 20 feet from home plate. PITCHf/x can’t tell arm action but when I
studied change ups I found three things to be important: A similar release
point between the change up and fastball, a high speed differential, and a
change up that moves down and away to opposite handed batters. Scherzer has
these in spades. His release point is a perfect match, his change up is nine
MPH slower than his fastball, and his change has some crazy down and away
movement to a left handed batter.
In fact, Scherzer’s change up has some crazy downward movement almost
producing negative vertical movement which would indicate a screwball not a
change up. You can see the downward movement on the plot above. Not only
should this produce a lot of swings and misses against left handers but he
should be able to keep the ball down with ease. This means he has the option
of throwing that change up to right handed batters which is something he is
currently doing about 5% of the time. The worst thing that a power pitcher can
do is leave up a change up against a right handed batter because that results
in a BP fastball speed middle in and that pitch usually gets crushed. Because
of that, few pitchers throw a change up to a similarly handed batter. Scherzer
has shown a willingness to do this however, and I think that is something that
will help him in the future. Because few right handed batters see change ups
from right handed pitchers there is some extra deception and it puts something
in the back of hitters minds as well.
In any case, if Scherzer is going to make it as starter he is going to need to
hone that change up. Left handed batters hit .298/.386/.426 against him and
the only thing in his arsenal that is going to substantially lower those
numbers is a better change up. The tools are there for him to have a good
change up he likely just needs more time with the pitch.
While I can’t speak about the questionable mechanics that might prevent
Scherzer from starting in the big leagues I can say that he definitely has the
stuff to start. Many starting pitchers have reached elite levels with “only”
three pitches (CC Sabathia for instance throws almost identical stuff from the
port side) and Scherzer already has a plus, plus fastball to go with a plus
slider. If he can improve his change up that will give him a real weapon
against left handed batters and he should have no problem against batters the
second or third time though.
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