2009 ZiPS Projections - Arizona Diamondbacks

看板Diamondbacks作者abc12812時間17年前 (2008/11/09 21:29)推噓1(1推 0噓 0→)

留言1則, 1人參與討論串1/1

http://tinyurl.com/6gn8pl For the third year in a row, the Diamondback offense was rather lackluster, but this time around, Pythagoras caught up with the team and they went from outperforming their RS/RA by 11 games to hitting the figure right on the nose. Eric Byrnes did no favor to the Diamondbacks this season, playing terribly and eventually tearing his hamstring, thus ending any hopes of Arizona being able to sell high before the salary increase to $11 million kicks in for 2009. Now the team is faced with paying $11 million to an easily replaceable player that could have been used for a more important purpose like bringing Orlando Hudson back. Overpaying to bring back a popular, mediocre player might be fun when you're coming off a 90-win playoff season, but like binge drinking, it becomes a lot less enjoyable in the morning. The Diamondbacks have a great top 3 rotation and some solid position players, but they really need to add an impact hitter (and if Byrnes becomes a 4th outfielder, so be it), shore up the infield, and another solid relief arm or two. Luckily for Arizona, they're in the same division as Colorado and San Francisco, San Diego's going to do a total rebuild, and the Dodgers have a GM who still can't figure out the difference between above-average players and replacement-level ones. Don't be too worried about the Jarrod Parker projection - that's a 2009 projection, not some final verdict on his prospectitude. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CATCHERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K THR VERY GOOD Chris Snyder c 28 .246 .347 .425 102 301 36 74 18 0 12 44 44 77 Av AVERAGE Miguel Montero* c 25 .253 .322 .425 99 261 34 66 16 1 9 37 26 52 Av ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAIR Robby Hammock c 32 .244 .300 .362 95 307 28 75 13 1 7 34 22 47 Fr ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FIRST BASEMEN ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K RNG VERY GOOD Adam Dunn* lf 29 .252 .385 .522 148 500 85 126 25 1 36 101 104 150 Fr AVERAGE Conor Jackson 1b 27 .296 .377 .454 140 487 74 144 32 3 13 67 58 60 Av ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAIR Jamie D'Antona 3b 27 .286 .334 .450 125 447 52 128 29 1 14 64 31 65 Av Chad Tracy* 1b 29 .274 .332 .422 98 339 42 93 21 1 9 45 28 58 Av POOR Josh Whitesell* 1b 27 .249 .345 .417 125 381 42 95 20 1 14 48 52 125 Vg Tony Clark# 1b 37 .238 .325 .415 85 147 16 35 5 0 7 22 19 42 Av Robby Hammock c 32 .244 .300 .362 95 307 28 75 13 1 7 34 22 47 Fr Don Kelly* 2b 29 .245 .304 .331 101 335 38 82 16 2 3 30 27 34 Av ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SECOND BASEMEN ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K RNG VERY GOOD Orlando Hudson# 2b 31 .290 .363 .431 127 473 65 137 29 4 10 60 54 74 Av Mark Reynolds 3b 25 .257 .334 .484 150 525 88 135 29 3 28 89 59 180 Fr FAIR David Eckstein ss 34 .289 .357 .364 97 363 48 105 19 1 2 35 28 26 Av Chris Burke lf 29 .255 .336 .388 110 294 44 75 16 1 7 34 29 51 Fr POOR Jesus Merchan ss 28 .281 .318 .374 111 398 44 112 18 2 5 41 15 29 Av Augie Ojeda# ss 34 .240 .332 .304 85 204 25 49 8 1 1 16 23 22 Av Don Kelly* 2b 29 .245 .304 .331 101 335 38 82 16 2 3 30 27 34 Fr ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- THIRD BASEMEN ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K RNG AVERAGE Mark Reynolds 3b 25 .257 .334 .484 150 525 88 135 29 3 28 89 59 180 Fr ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jamie D'Antona 3b 27 .286 .334 .450 125 447 52 128 29 1 14 64 31 65 Pr FAIR Chad Tracy* 1b 29 .274 .332 .422 98 339 42 93 21 1 9 45 28 58 Fr POOR Jesus Merchan ss 28 .281 .318 .374 111 398 44 112 18 2 5 41 15 29 Av Robby Hammock c 32 .244 .300 .362 95 307 28 75 13 1 7 34 22 47 Fr Augie Ojeda# ss 34 .240 .332 .304 85 204 25 49 8 1 1 16 23 22 Vg Don Kelly* 2b 29 .245 .304 .331 101 335 38 82 16 2 3 30 27 34 Av ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SHORTSTOPS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K RNG AVERAGE Stephen Drew* ss 26 .274 .327 .449 149 572 75 157 35 7 17 80 46 101 Fr ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- David Eckstein ss 34 .289 .357 .364 97 363 48 105 19 1 2 35 28 26 Av Chris Burke lf 29 .255 .336 .388 110 294 44 75 16 1 7 34 29 51 Fr FAIR Jesus Merchan ss 28 .281 .318 .374 111 398 44 112 18 2 5 41 15 29 Av POOR Augie Ojeda# ss 34 .240 .332 .304 85 204 25 49 8 1 1 16 23 22 Av Don Kelly* 2b 29 .245 .304 .331 101 335 38 82 16 2 3 30 27 34 Pr ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORNER OUTFIELDERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K RNG EXCELLENT Adam Dunn* lf 29 .252 .385 .522 148 500 85 126 25 1 36 101104 150 Pr VERY GOOD Conor Jackson 1b 27 .296 .377 .454 140 487 74 144 32 3 13 67 58 60 Av AVERAGE ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Justin Upton rf 21 .265 .349 .457 138 490 71 130 27 5 19 74 60 128 Av FAIR Chad Tracy* 1b 29 .274 .332 .422 98 339 42 93 21 1 9 45 28 58 Av Eric Byrnes lf 33 .262 .323 .436 98 381 57 100 21 3 13 53 29 62 Vg Jeff Salazar* cf 28 .263 .343 .405 127 380 59 100 21 3 9 48 44 70 Vg Chris Burke lf 29 .255 .336 .388 110 294 44 75 16 1 7 34 29 51 Fr POOR Tim Raines Jr.# cf 29 .264 .301 .407 103 364 50 96 18 2 10 46 18 65 Av Trent Oeltjen* rf 26 .271 .322 .376 117 380 50 103 18 5 4 40 20 54 Vg Alex Romero# cf 25 .276 .312 .385 130 431 50 119 23 3 6 47 21 43 Av Robby Hammock c 32 .244 .300 .362 95 307 28 75 13 1 7 34 22 47 Fr Cyle Hankerd lf 24 .252 .299 .360 116 428 36 108 20 1 8 45 21 59 Pr Gerardo Parra* cf 22 .256 .302 .353 126 507 51 130 21 2 8 52 30 66 Vg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CENTERFIELDERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K RNG VERY GOOD Justin Upton rf 21 .265 .349 .457 138 490 71 130 27 5 19 74 60 128 Av AVERAGE Chris Young cf 25 .254 .319 .484 162 603 93 153 39 5 30 100 57 138 Vg Eric Byrnes lf 33 .262 .323 .436 98 381 57 100 21 3 13 53 29 62 Fr ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jeff Salazar* cf 28 .263 .343 .405 127 380 59 100 21 3 9 48 44 70 Av Chris Burke lf 29 .255 .336 .388 110 294 44 75 16 1 7 34 29 51 Pr FAIR Tim Raines Jr.# cf 29 .264 .301 .407 103 364 50 96 18 2 10 46 18 65 Fr Trent Oeltjen* rf 26 .271 .322 .376 117 380 50 103 18 5 4 40 20 54 Fr Alex Romero# cf 25 .276 .312 .385 130 431 50 119 23 3 6 47 21 43 Fr POOR Gerardo Parra* cf 22 .256 .302 .353 126 507 51 130 21 2 8 52 30 66 Fr * - Hits Left # - Switch-Hitter ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- STARTERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K TOP THIRD Brandon Webb 30 3.08 18 9 32 32 225.0 206 77 12 61 183 Danny Haren 28 3.41 15 9 32 32 214.0 198 81 21 44 198 Max Scherzer 24 3.70 8 6 21 21 112.0 101 46 9 50 106 MIDDLE THIRD Randy Johnson* 45 4.41 9 9 25 25 149.0 148 73 22 43 146 Doug Davis* 33 4.58 8 10 27 27 161.0 172 82 15 71 119 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Brooks Brown 23 4.89 8 12 27 27 149.0 163 81 14 71 81 Yusmeiro Petit 24 5.07 5 8 26 18 110.0 120 62 19 31 71 BOTTOM THIRD Matt Torra 25 5.30 7 13 26 25 151.0 179 89 19 42 70 Billy Buckner 25 5.43 6 10 29 21 131.0 150 79 18 59 77 Esmerling Vasquez 25 5.51 4 8 27 19 111.0 120 68 14 66 65 Edgar Gonzalez 26 5.69 4 9 26 19 117.0 138 74 21 38 72 Juan Gutierrez 25 5.69 5 9 23 21 117.0 137 74 17 52 63 Hector Ambriz 25 5.70 6 12 28 27 150.0 171 95 25 60 75 Jarrod Parker 20 5.95 6 12 25 25 115.0 137 76 20 48 58 Evan MacLane* 26 6.32 4 11 27 21 131.0 171 92 22 37 51 Wes Roemer 22 6.64 5 14 28 28 160.0 201 118 36 57 72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RELIEVERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K TOP THIRD Juan Cruz 30 3.36 4 2 50 5 67.0 53 25 6 36 82 MIDDLE THIRD Tony Pena 27 3.71 5 4 75 0 80.0 79 33 7 22 57 Chad Qualls 30 3.74 6 5 76 0 77.0 75 32 7 25 60 Brandon Lyon 29 3.99 4 4 69 0 70.0 75 31 5 18 44 Doug Slaten* 29 4.02 3 2 60 0 47.0 47 21 4 21 36 Jon Rauch 30 4.23 6 6 84 0 83.0 81 39 12 25 72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BOTTOM THIRD Wil Ledezma* 28 4.75 3 5 30 12 89.0 93 47 9 42 63 Jon Coutlangus* 28 4.86 2 3 40 0 37.0 37 20 3 24 28 Connor Robertson 27 4.89 4 6 50 0 70.0 75 38 8 33 50 Jailen Peguero 28 4.95 4 5 62 0 80.0 84 44 9 43 55 Leonel Rosales 28 5.40 1 3 44 0 50.0 58 30 7 21 30 Emiliano Fruto 25 6.03 4 8 43 7 91.0 95 61 15 66 72 * - Throws Left Player Spotlight - Stephen Drew Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K OPS+ Optimistic (15%) .291 .350 .486 162 622 91 181 41 10 20 94 57 102 111 Mean .274 .327 .449 149 572 75 157 35 7 17 80 46 101 96 Pessimistic (15%) .255 .306 .409 137 526 51 134 30 6 13 65 39 100 81 Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Kurt Stillwell, Jay Bell Player Spotlight - Justin Upton Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K OPS+ Optimistic (15%) .284 .375 .501 152 539 90 153 31 7 24 91 76 133 122 Mean .265 .349 .457 138 490 71 130 27 5 19 74 60 128 104 Pessimistic (15%) .245 .319 .415 121 429 46 105 22 3 15 58 44 121 86 Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Ron Swoboda, Dwight Evans Player Spotlight - Danny Haren ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Optimistic (15%) 2.72 19 7 34 34 235 197 71 19 39 227 173 Mean 3.41 15 9 32 32 214 198 81 21 44 198 138 Pessimistic (15%) 4.29 10 10 27 27 174 179 83 21 47 149 109 Top Near-Age Comps: Schoolboy Rowe, Javier Vazquez Player Spotlight - Doug Davis ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Optimistic (15%) 4.11 10 9 29 29 175 176 80 14 73 133 114 Mean 4.58 8 10 27 27 161 172 82 15 71 119 103 Pessimistic (15%) 5.39 5 10 22 22 127 147 76 14 65 88 87 Top Near-Age Comps: Bill Hallahan, Al Downing Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projectingthe injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2006-2008. Excellent is the topquintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on. -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.112.5.3