[情報] Josh Byrnes Interview, Part 2
http://www.azsnakepit.com/2009/2/11/755538/the-d-backs-gm-speaks-josh
AZ: The team signed Garland, and traded for Davis and Haren, all among the
most reliable of starters the past few seasons, as well as Qualls and Rauch,
bullpen workhorses. Is 'innings eating' a market inefficiency that you can
take advantage of?
JB: I don't think it's an inefficiency, it's that in 1,400-plus innings, you
obviously want your best pitchers pitching most of those innings, or most of
those important innings. And the more you can construct a pitching staff that
doesn't expose your vulnerabilities, the better - the '05 pitching staff we
inherited had a lot of guys pitching innings below league-average standards.
Whether it's a primary reliever or a starter, having someone who can assume
that role, the quantity and durability associated with that role, and pitch
it in an average or better level - that's a good way to build a pitching
staff, and I think we've done that. If you look at how we hope will be our
950-1,000 starter innings and our 250 most important relief innings, the
people assigned to those innings are pretty good.
AZ: On the other hand, the 2009 infield defense looks like it could be an
area of concern this year. What defensive metric do you use to measure
players and do you weigh defense heavily when considering player movement?
JB: We weigh it; I think the metrics are things we look at and consider, and
sometimes aggregate, and aggregate against the visual or against common
sense. Jon Garland, who's a contact pitcher: why did he give up 30-40 more
singles in 2008, than he had the year before? When the perception is, the
Angels might have better defense than the White Sox. How does his groundball
BAA compare to Brandon Webb's? So you look at the metrics, and then get back
to, can Mark Reynolds, Stephen Drew, Felipe Lopez and Conor Jackson/Chad
Tracy be a good infield defense? And are our visual judgments different from
the metrics? I don't think it's as shoddy as maybe some of the metrics would
make it seem, and in fact they all have the potential to be better as
defenders. I've read where some people feel that's a real weakness in the
team, but I'm not sure I would subscribe to that theory.
AZ: Speaking of Tracy and Jackson, one of the issues is going to be having
three players - Tracy, Jackson and Byrnes - competing for two positions, at
1B and LF. How do you think that'll shake down in the coming season?
JB: In the wider view, Chad Tracy is in great shape. He's now 18 months
removed from the knee surgery, he's had an off-season where he can condition
himself rather than rehab. So I think if you even consider Reynolds, Tracy,
Jackson, Byrnes, Young, Upton as six players, five spots - Tony Clark too. So
that's 3,500 plate-appearances divided by that number, and it doesn't seem so
crowded. Now, on a given day, there might be a player or two who don't like
the line-up...
But again, that's a benefit. Last year, we were great innings 1-6 - I think
we were second in baseball at having the lead after six. Now, to flow through
a game, maybe Bob has better in-game options, we can double-switch, we can
match up left-right, offense-defense to finish games better. And that's also
assuming the scenario, that everyone is healthy and playing well. So if
that's the outcome - which I hope - I still feel there's going to be enough
playing time for everybody.
AZ: One of the areas that will give you extra flexibility is having a third
catcher on the roster, in James Skelton. There's been some suggestion he
could see time on the infield, at second base perhaps. What do you see his
usage as being in the coming year?
JB: First of all, he needs to make the team and stick, as a Rule 5, but his
skill-set's pretty interesting, even just to complement our roster this year.
He's been down in Tucson about a month already, worked with Jack Howell and
Chip Hale a lot on re-acclimating himself to infield play, and they've been
very favorable in their reviews. He played there in high-school, and he's a
good athlete. So if the 2009 player can catch, but can also play infield and
outfield, that really allows Bob to use our roster that much more
aggressively - especially use Montero's offense more aggressively - or by
making other decisions within the game.
Skelton has a pretty interesting offensive background, so we'll see. He just
got to Double-A at the end of the year, so it's a bit of a jump, but he's
also a .400-plus on-base guy, with more walks than strikeouts. He's a pretty
good hitter.
AZ: Yes, once I saw the team had picked him up, and I looked at his stats, it
really surprised me he'd been left unprotected. Moving on to the draft, it's
still not certain what picks we're going to get - it depends on where Cruz
and Hudson sign - but we should still have a relatively large number of draft
picks for the Diamondbacks early on. How does that change your approach when
it comes to making selections?
JB: I think the more chances you have, the better outcome you'll have,
because historically, even in the second round, there are more misses than
hits. So just having more picks gives you more chances to miss - that's a
sort of backwards way of saying it. It probably gives you a little more
latitude to take a chance on a high-risk, high-reward sort of player; you can
do a little more portfolio management within a draft class.
My last year in Boston, we had six of the first 57 and they were 23rd pick
Ellsbury, 26th pick Hansen, #42 Buchholz, #45 Lowrie, #47 Bowden. Especially
Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden, taking teenage right-handers, a high-school
and a junior college pitcher, as stand-alones would feel a little riskier,
than embedded with some safer college picks. And most of those guys have
turned out to be pretty good players.
AZ: Looking at the current Diamondbacks roster, it's apparent most pitchers
outside Webb were traded for, brought in from outside, while most position
players came up through the farm system. Does this make you more likely to
draft pitchers - playing a volume game - or less likely, on the grounds
they're harder to project?
JB: Good question. It's hard to say you can ever draft too much pitching, but
I don't think we'd do that at the expense of talent judgments. It's the same
kind of concept with high school vs. college; you're more likely to get
something taking a college player, but you do have to talk about ceiling and
be able to scout a high-school player. That hasn't necessarily been by design.
Last year, 2008, was a very good college position-player year, a lot of
corner bats, even some middle-infield players. Jemile Weeks, James Beckham,
Jason Castro, guys like that - but none of them got to our pick, and we were
happy to take Daniel Schlereth, who we felt was the best player on the board.
At the end of the day, it's what you do in the draft. Because the draft in
our sport is not 'plug and play', you can think of any number of examples
historically where someone with a great major-league player at that position,
still took someone like him in the draft. Generally, that alleged surplus
works itself out somehow.
AZ: Can you tell me which you weight more heavily, subjective (scouting) or
objective (stats) analysis? When is one more likely to take precedence over
the other?
JB: Generally, I'd say we try to blend both. If they're in argument with each
other, it would probably make us move on to another player. But if you're
talking about teenage players, whether it's high-schoolers here, or Latin
American kids, obviously there's not a lot of statistical value, even in
high-school statistics. I think statistics are more relevant, the closer they
are to the major-leagues.
AZ: Fans are already looking forward to the arrival of people like Schlereth,
Parker, Parra in the majors. Can you pick out a prospect who has maybe flown
under the radar a little bit, but who is exciting the front office?
JB: Last year's breakout candidate, who maybe twelve months ago, we wouldn't
have been talking about as a pretty solid prospect, but turned himself into
that, is probably Cesar Valdez. He pitched very well in the Cal. league,
which is a hard league to pitch in. He acclimated well to Double-A, though
his season numbers were stained a bit by his last start or two, when he was a
little tired. He's a great kid, he's a very good strike-thrower and he has a
devastating change-up. To repeat the theme, it's hard to find starting
pitchers, and Cesar Valdez has made himself a starting pitcher prospect.
AZ: It looks like the Opening Day roster is more or less set now, save the
back of the bullpen. How would you evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of
the 2009 Diamondbacks?
JB: Our strength is still our starting pitching. I think our bullpen still
can be a strength. Bullpens in general are volatile, but even our statistical
output in '08 probably didn't match up to those who watched the team every
day. There were games lost back there, but that was a product of a lot of
things. I think our greatest area in need of improvement is our run-scoring.
It's an interesting model, and it's continuing to evolve. We don't have a
classic lead-off hitter, classic four-hole hitter. What we do have is a lot
of offense from our middle of the field players, eight or nine or ten players
who are capable of having pretty good seasons in terms of AVG, OBP, SLG,
being good offensive players.
If we're going to grow, and if we start to have a long line-up, we have a
bench where, as the game flips, we can match up better offensively late in
the game. Guys like Drew, Young and Upton, who are still pretty young, have a
lot of upside. Steven, especially in the second-half last year, showed you
what he can do. Justin Upton's April and September; Chris Young quietly had a
good second-half and has an unbelievable minor-league record. Are we going to
have an offensive monster emerge from this group? I hope so. Justin certainly
has a chance to be that, but he's 21 years old. The good news is, what he
just did, aged twenty, doesn't happen very often historically.
AZ: If you had to pick one player on the roster as a potential breakout,
would it be Upton?
JB: It could be. Chris Young: he does a lot of good things for us. He plays
great defense; he's very durable; I don't think he needs to be a high average
hitter to be an impact player, and not many guys can say that. I think he
does have on-base skills, he has very legitimate power, he can be a dynamic
base-runner and defender. So that's a pretty good combination. Our
run-prevention, with our pitching and our defense, with an offense that
continues to progress; that's certainly our half-full view, and I don't think
those things are overly wishful. But if a few things go our way, some
players make progress, and we stay healthy, our team has the capability of
being very good.
AZ: It sometimes seems like there is unrest among a certain section of the D
Backs fan base. What would you say to them regarding the future direction of
the franchise?
JB: I would say, again, the last ten years, if we take a look in the
rear-view mirror; seven winning teams, four playoff teams. The last two
years, a very young team, an identifiable young team, most of them coming
from within, that does play hard and has been in first place most of two
years, one year in the playoffs. I think it's a fun team to watch and follow,
because you can see the growth - guys like Webb and Haren, Drew, Young, Upton
and others, are still very young players, and most of them are really
identified with this franchise.
It's funny. On the outside looking in, other people, other clubs, national
media, a lot of them have a really favorable view of the franchise. Like
anything, sometimes when you're closer to it, you tend to nitpick it, as do
we. It is baseball and it's never going to be easy for 162 games, but there
are plenty of things here to be optimistic about and to be proud of.
AZ: Do you ever get the time to watch baseball without analyzing it? Or it
that just too much like work?
JB: That's too much like work! I don't know if I could see a five-year old
kid swing a bat without having some kind of comment!
AZ: So what's your relaxation? What do you do to get away from it all?
JB: Just spend family time. I have two daughters - if this work is not 24/7,
it's close to it. But to any time I can put the Blackberry down and get away,
I'm usually just hanging out with my family.
AZ: Anything else you want to add or say?
JB: At the end of the day, as John Hart always said to me, and I firmly
believe it, this whole enterprise is about the players. The one sentiment,
from the players out, and maybe they don't get the chance to express it, is
that more than any place I've been, this is universally a preferred
destination. Players like to play for the Diamondbacks, both from a baseball
standpoint, and living in the Phoenix area. Unlike a lot of cities, the guys
that wear the uniform are pretty happy to be here, and hopefully we can win,
and demonstrate that enthusiasm. But this is a good place to live and work.
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