[情報] Athlon Baseball Diamondbacks Preview
Athlon Baseball 2009 Arizona Diamondbacks Preview
The Diamondbacks will trot out basically the same group they did last season
and certainly have the tools to win their second NL West title in three seasons
despite a disappointing 2008. Last season, the D-Backs became the first team
since division play began not to win the title after leading by at least five
games at the end of April. The team believes in its strong starting pitching
and the continued ascendancy of youth. Stephen Drew broke through last season.
Is this Justin Upton’s year? Max Scherzer’s?
Rotation
Righthanders Brandon Webb and Dan Haren comprise what is arguably the best 1-2
starting punch in the major leagues. The pair combined for 47 quality starts to
tie for the major league lead among teammates and took turns carrying the team
— Webb won his first nine starts and later had an eight-game winning streak,
while the Diamondbacks twice won five straight games in which Haren started.
Neither missed a start, and each was the NL Pitcher of the Month once. Lefty
Doug Davis, who overcame thyroid cancer last season, has won at least 10 games
in his last four full seasons and is likely to be the lone lefthander in the
rotation. Davis was back in form after the April 10 surgery and did not give up
more than three earned runs in his final nine starts of the year. The D-Backs
are counting on Scherzer, a former No. 1 pick, to replace Randy Johnson, and
Scherzer has the fastball to do it, hitting 98 mph in his major league debut
last April. Jon Garland, an innings-eater type who pitches to contact, signed a
one-year deal in January. The veteran will take pressure off the bullpen, but
must have a strong defense behind him to be successful. Yusmeiro Petit, Billy
Buckner and Travis Blackley will get long looks in spring training.
Bullpen
Righthander Chad Qualls entered spring training as the closer after winning the
job down the stretch last year, when he converted seven consecutive save
opportunities and did not allow an earned run in his last 14.2 innings after
taking over from the since-departed free agent Brandon Lyon. Qualls has a
devastating sinker and induced 13 double plays in only 73.2 innings last
season. Righthanders Tony Peña and Jon Rauch will be the setup men, although
both have closed in the past. Peña has six saves over the last three seasons,
while Rauch had 17 saves with Washington last season before his mid-season
acquisition by the D-Backs. Newcomer Scott Schoeneweis brings a left-handed
presence to a pen that has been very right-handed in the past several seasons
and will inherit the specialist’s role. Tom Gordon, who finished last season
on the disabled list with the Phillies, is another experienced option in a
setup role. Righties Leo Rosales, Jailen Peguero and Buckner and lefty Blackley
are among those in consideration for the final two spots in the bullpen on a
team that believes in carrying seven relievers as a way to protect its starting
staff and also to preclude excess wear and tear on bullpen arms.
Middle Infield
Drew had a career offensive year in his third season. His 76 extra-base hits
were tied for 11th in the major leagues, more than Manny Ramirez or Mark
Teixeira, and the D-Backs want to take advantage of the pop in his bat by
dropping him from the leadoff spot to No. 3 in the order. New second baseman
Felipe Lopez, who will replace three-time Gold Glove winner Orlando Hudson, is
exactly the fit the D-Backs wanted — he adds another left-handed bat (as a
switch-hitter) against right-handers, can run, defend, and hit at the top of
the lineup. The Diamondbacks would take the Lopez they saw last September,
after he was signed by St. Louis upon being released by Washington. Lopez was
16-of-31 in seven games against Arizona, with four three-hit games and two
two-hit games.
Corners
Chad Tracy returns to first base for the first time since opening the 2005
season as the starter there. In between, he has had stops at third base, his
original position, and on the disabled list. Tracy played third base through a
left knee injury in 2006 before undergoing microfracture surgery on his right
knee late in 2007 that kept him out of the first 50 games in 2008. He provides
a strong left-handed bat to balance a primarily right-handed-hitting lineup and
is a career .302 hitter against righties (against lefties, his average is
.223). Third baseman Mark Reynolds has the power to hit in the middle of the
lineup and led the D-Backs in home runs and RBIs last season. He vowed to tweak
his two-strike approach after striking out 333 times in 905 at-bats in his
first two major league seasons.
Outfield
Conor Jackson began last season at first base but looked very comfortable in
left field after inheriting that position in July following a season-ending
hamstring injury to regular Eric Byrnes. Jackson will begin the spring as the
starter there after a strong offensive season that included career highs in
doubles (31), batting average (.300), walks (59) and stolen bases (10). Jackson
is no stranger to the outfield; he played right field in his first pro season
in 2003 before moving to left field in the minors in 2004-05. Youngsters Chris
Young in center and Upton in right round out the outfield, and they are
expected to stay there well into the next decade. In 2007, Young became the
first rookie in major league history with at least 30 home runs and 25 stolen
bases, and both he and Upton have had stretches during which their numbers
compare to some of the all-time greats in their youth. Young signed a
seven-year contract extension through 2014 last April, and Upton is only 21.
Catching
Chris Snyder takes pride in calling a game and creating a bond with his staff,
modeling his game after his idol, Jason Varitek. Snyder did not commit an error
in ’08 while throwing out 31 percent of base stealers. He had the finest
offensive season of his career and should get the bulk of the work again
despite the presence of left-handed-hitting Miguel Montero. Snyder had 64 RBIs
in 334 at-bats despite missing three weeks with a groin injury; his ratio of
5.2 at-bats per RBI was the best among NL catchers with at least 100 starts.
Bench
Byrnes was never himself after pulling a hamstring in an impromptu race with
Young the day before spring training opened in 2008. When healthy, he can be
productive. Montero, the No. 2 catcher, has a power bat and was sought after at
the winter meetings. Tony Clark was an integral part of the 2007 NL West
championship team, and the D-Backs re-signed him after trading for him at the
2008 All-Star break. Super sub Augie Ojeda is a plus defender at three infield
positions, and Rule 5 draftee James Skelton has such a good bat that he’s
likely to stick as a third catcher.
Management
A year removed from winning the NL Manager of the Year award in 2007, Bob
Melvin may have done a better job last season. Melvin understands players and
deals well with them, and he looks to get his part-time players advantageous
match-ups when they start.
Final analysis
GM Josh Byrnes has done a top job assembling a contender on one of the lowest
payrolls in the majors, about $72 million this season. Ownership believes in
the Minnesota/Oakland/Tampa Bay model of success without excess spending, and
he rewarded Byrnes with a seven-year contract extension last spring. As usual,
the team has socked away a few dollars for a stretch-run acquisition if
necessary. This team can win as constructed, and should only get better.
Statistician
153 >> Days the D-Backs spent either atop the division or tied for the lead in
the NL West last season.
900 >> D-Backs’ victories over their first 11 seasons, second among
expansion-era franchises.
9 >> Victories in his first nine starts by Brandon Webb to open 2008, the
second-best season-opening run since 1919.
179 >> D-Backs’ quality starts in the last two seasons, the most in the NL
and fourth-most in the majors.
204 >> Strikeouts by third baseman Mark Reynolds last season, breaking the
major league record previously held by Ryan Howard (199).
25 >> Consecutive scoreless innings by since-departed closer Brandon Lyon
from April 6-June 17, setting a franchise record.
.152 >> Difference in Justin Upton’s batting average at home and on the road
last year. Upton hit .321 at Chase Field and .169 everywhere else.
Difference Maker
Eric Byrnes has the ability to change a game, and that was never more evident
than in 2007, when he became the 11th player in major league history with at
least 20 home runs and 50 stolen bases in the same year. He was never at full
strength last season, the result of a hamstring injury, and his condition
remains suspect after he opted for rehab instead of surgery to repair a
three-millimeter tear in his right hamstring. If Byrnes is right, however, he
can have a dramatic impact at the top of the order.
Beyond The Boxscore
Select company Stephen Drew joined select company with his breakout 2008
season. With 44 doubles, 11 triples and 21 home runs, Drew became the third
shortstop in major league history to have at least 40 doubles, 10 triples and
20 home runs in the same season. Milwaukee’s Robin Yount did it twice (1980,
1982) and Boston’s Nomar Garciaparra did it in 1997. Drew is the first NL
shortstop to accomplish the feat.
Adversity Lefthander Doug Davis was hit with sobering news last March 28, when
he was diagnosed with thyroid cancer. Not that Davis let it faze him. Davis
made his first two scheduled regular-season starts before having his cancerous
thyroid removed, then made a heroic return in an 11–1 win over Atlanta on May
23, giving up a run while striking out four in seven innings in front of his
father, other family members and friends.
A star is born Chris Young, who turned 25 last Sept. 5, has 56 home runs and 43
stolen bases in his first three seasons, including two of each in an
abbreviated 2006 debut. Ken Griffey Jr. (60 homers, 50 stolen bases) is the
only center fielder in major league history to have more homers and stolen
bases at age 24 or younger in his first three seasons.
Done with Dunn The D-Backs traded righthander Micah Owings and minor leaguers
Wilkin Castillo and Dallas Buck to Cincinnati for Adam Dunn on Aug. 11. At
worst, they figured to add two top 2009 draft picks to fill the holes by
offering Dunn salary arbitration over the winter. When the economy tanked,
however, the D-Backs opted against offering arbitration, leaving them nothing
to show for the Dunn deal.
Perfection Max Scherzer made a perfect major league debut on April 29, retiring
all 13 batters he faced in relief of Edgar Gonzalez in a 6-4 loss to Houston.
It was the longest perfect first outing in modern history (since 1900).
Scherzer struck out seven, one short of the record for a first outing for a
reliever.
Farm System
2008 Top Draft Pick — Left-handed reliever Daniel Schlereth, the 26th player
selected last June, made an immediate impact after signing in mid-August. He
did not allow an earned run in three appearances for Pioneer League Missoula
(Rookie) before being promoted to Class A South Bend. Schlereth, the son of
former NFL Pro Bowl guard Mark Schlereth, struck out 14 while allowing only
three hits and two earned runs in nine innings with South Bend. Schlereth
features a fastball that consistently reaches the low- to mid-90 mph range, and
he complements that with a slider. He could be a fast mover in an organization
short on left-handed relievers.
2007 Top Pick — Jarrod Parker, RHP, Bluffton (Ind.) Norwell High School
Used mid-90s fastball to earn 12 wins at South Bend. Still two years away.
2006 Top Pick — Max Scherzer, RHP, Missouri
A quick riser, Scherzer hit 98 mph in his first major league appearance last
season and is in the rotation.
2005 Top Pick — Justin Upton, OF, Chesapeake (Va.) Great Bridge High School
The first overall pick drew comparisons to Ken Griffey Jr. with his five-homer
April before cooling off.
2004 Top Pick — Stephen Drew, SS, Florida State
Drew’s selection drew ire because of his high cost; his performance has made
him seem like a bargain.
2003 Top Pick — Conor Jackson, 3B, California
A selective, patient hitter who had 31 doubles and 75 RBIs last season.
Other Prospects (age on Opening Day)
OF Gerardo Parra (21)
A speedy hitter with gap power, he played the second half of 2008 at Class AA
at the tender age of 21.
RHP Cesar Valdez (24)
Non-drafted native of the Dominican can throw quality strikes with four
pitches. On a fast track.
OF Evan Frey (22)
Pesky leadoff type had 37 stolen bases and 76 walks at two Class A levels in
2008. Can defend in center, too.
RHP Barry Enright (23)
A strikeout-thrower in his first full season; led the Class A California League
with 143 whiffs.
SS Reynaldo Navarro (19)
A 5-foot-10 switch-hitter with pop, Navarro has tools on both sides of the ball
but still needs polish.
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