BDD ‘10 Team Previews — Arizona Diamondbacks

看板Diamondbacks作者abc12812時間15年前 (2010/03/09 00:47)推噓0(0推 0噓 0→)

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http://www.baseballdailydigest.com/2010/03/07/bdd-10-team-previews-arizona-diamondbacks/ ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS ‘09 Record: 70-92, 5th in NL West Pythagorean Record: 75-87 (-5) Current PECOTA Projection: 85-77 (2nd in NL West) ———————- 2009 Review Instead of living up to their 80-win PECOTA projection, the 2009 Diamondbacks ran into some seriously bad luck. Brandon Webb, Conor Jackson, Chris Snyder and Eric Byrnes were all hobbled by injury, tragedy struck Scot Schoenweis, and Chad Qualls finished a solid year by dislocating his knee. Breakthrough seasons by Mark Reynolds and Justin Upton were offset by a terrible performance from Chris Young, regression from Stephen Drew, and a complete power outage at first base. Manager Bob Melvin got his walking papers after the team got off to a 12-17 start, and his job (and a three-year contract) went to A.J. Hinch, who lacked a single inning of managerial experience. Hinch’s infusion of young blood provided some excitement, but didn’t keep the D-backs from finishing in the division cellar with the third-worst record in the NL. 2010 Outlook Their young core returns, hardened by the trials of 2009 and healed of their injuries. Off-season deals revamped the rotation, while the farm system fed the bullpen and bench with deep, well-rounded talent. Stability should give them the chemistry that a mixture of lineups and personnel prevented them from finding in 2009. Hinch, in his first full season at the helm, can show that his contract was deserved and not, as some have speculated, a product of his close relationship with GM Josh Byrnes. Arizona has some good fortune coming its way to balance out their bad-luck 2009, and they should compete for the Wild Card, if not put it all together and overtake the Dodgers for the divisional crown. 2010 Team Catcher Chris Snyder repaid Arizona’s generous three-year, $14.25M contract with a .200/.333/.352 line and a month on the DL in 2009. Miguel Montero stepped in to become one of Arizona’s best power hitters, finishing 4th on the team in HRs; his .832 OPS ranked 3rd among AZ regulars. Montero retains the starting gig, giving the D-backs the luxury of two front-line catchers. Arizona will try to ink Montero to a long-term deal before attempting to deal Snyder once he proves himself healthy and productive. If that happens, or if either gets hurt, it opens the door for John Hester, who had a great AAA season and homered in his first big-league at-bat in 2009. Infield Adam LaRoche gives Arizona the slugging first baseman they sought, though his modest power comes more from doubles than dingers. He’s a consistently cold starter, so Hinch will have to exercise patience, as prospect Brandon Allen continues his development at AAA Reno. Second baseman Kelly Johnson’s off year with Atlanta in 2009 came from wrist tendinitis, which landed him on the DL, and Martin Prado, who took over the keystone spot and didn’t stop hitting. Although Johnson hit 261/.358/.493 when he returned, the job was no longer his. Johnson’s an excellent rebound candidate and should be Arizona’s leadoff hitter. In 2009, third baseman Mark Reynolds finally leveraged his Three True Outcomes skills into a career .260/.349/.543 year, clobbering 44 homers while setting a new strikeout record with 223 whiffs. He remains one of the team’s vital power sources, but could end up producing a year somewhere between his 2007 and 2009 seasons due to contact rates in the mid-sixties. Shortstop Stephen Drew was a bit of a letdown offensively in 2009, with a .261/.320/.428 year that paled next to his .291/.333/.502 in 2008. That may have been because he hit everywhere in the lineup but eighth, a continuing problem with his skill set. Look for him to solidify his position in the bottom half of the batting order and regain some of those losses; his glove’ s not good enough to overcome a mediocre bat. Outfield Instead of Arizona’s 2009 breakthrough player, left fielder Conor Jackson became one of their breakdown players. Dogged by fatigue-inducing Valley Fever, CoJack played just 30 games and hit a sluggish .182/.264/.253. He says he’s fully recovered, so expect another .800+ OPS year from him, with some power development to complement his always-strong batting eye. In center, Chris Young completely collapsed since his 2007 breakthrough. 2008 was a small step down, but he looked lost in 2009, returning to the minors for several weeks to straighten himself out. Perhaps he was trying too hard to go deep, as an absurd 22.4% of his fly balls didn’t make it out of the infield. Whatever the reason, he’s signed through 2013, and his 2009 production makes him virtually untradable, so he’s not going anywhere. He should improve on that awful .711 OPS in 2010, even if his ceiling looks a lot lower than it did in 2007. Arizona’s present and future right fielder, Justin Upton finally put it all together in 2009. His .300/.366/.532 season, with 26 HR and 20 SBs, looks like some Hall of Famers’ breakthrough seasons. Arizona believed it and inked him to a six-year deal, hoping he doesn’t suddenly fizzle like Young. If his health problems don’t recur, J-Up should be an excellent #3 hitter with pop. Bench The depth that Hinch created in 2009 will help him in 2010. Gerardo Parra will be an active fourth outfielder after leaping straight from AA to the majors, then hitting .290/.324/.404, including .337/.348/.485 with RISP. Super-utilityman Ryan Roberts will pick up playing time in the infield and outfield after hitting .279/.367/.416 last year while playing three different positions. Tony Abreu could edge Augie Ojeda out of the utility infield position, since Ojeda’s offensive limitations are well known. Starting Rotation Dan Haren was exemplary in 2009, posting a 3.14 ERA, a best-in-baseball 1.00 WHIP, and a NL-best 5.9 K/BB ratio. If Brandon Webb, #1-A to Haren’s #1, can find his sinker and his health, the two pitchers will form one of baseball’s best 1-2 combinations. Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy are a huge improvement over Doug Davis and Jon Garland; they bring some serious strikeout potential and make losing Max Scherzer sting less. The spring training battle for the #5 spot will be among Billy Buckner, Bryan Augenstein, Rodrigo Lopez and Kevin Mulvey; I would rank their chances at securing the spot in that order. Bullpen Chad Qualls showed the stuff to be a full-time closer in 2009 and looks healthy enough to reprise that role in 2010. Newcomer Bob Howry will be in the setup mix with Clay Zavada (3.35 ERA, 1.35 WHIP) and Juan Gutierrez (4.06 ERA, 1.37 WHIP), both of whom stepped up in 2009, with Gutierrez sliding into the closer’s role after Qualls went down. Current camp buzz surrounds young lefty fireballer Jordan Norberto, who’ll likely start in AAA but could have an impact later in the year. AROUND THE HORN WITH THE ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS… Breakthrough Performance… Ian Kennedy The smaller stage in Phoenix should be just the place for this Yankee prospect to finally shine. Ready to Rebound… Kelly Johnson Chris Young is a dead-cat-bounce candidate for this category, but Johnson only had a partial season of poor play in 2009, and should make other teams regret passing him up in the offseason. Ready to Disappoint… Mark Reynolds Reynolds’ skill set is too volatile for consistency, and the combination of high strikeouts and high expectations could prove too much for him. In sort of the opposite of the dead-cat-bounce theory, his great 2009 means even a decent 2010 will be perceived as a disappointment. Don’t Be Surprised If… Rolly Fingers sues Clay Zavada for mustache-copyright infringement. Be Shocked If… Arizona finishes in the second division of the NL West again. Rock Steady… Dan Haren On a better team, he’d have been a Cy Young candidate in ’09, and should be in the CY discussion in 2010. Haren defines “rock steady” on the mound. Achilles Heel… Youth Weirdly, this is also one of their strengths, but LaRoche is the only starting position player over 30, and a young core can be unpredictable. Look no further for Chris Young to see how far a promising youngster can fall. One way to look at Arizona’s 2009 is not as bad luck but as the downside of investing in volatile young talent. In the Next Three Years… That same young core should provide a nucleus of talent to build a great team around. This organization prides itself on its competitiveness, and its fan base has learned to expect and demand an excellent product. Though idiosyncratic, the front office moves have looked mostly wise and prescient, and the well-managed farm system should ensuring consistency and fan loyalty. They’ll continue to contend, but the NL West has become a much tougher division, making the playoffs much harder for Arizona to reach than in years past. Diamondbacks Fun Facts… * Record before 2007 uniform and team color change: 728-730 (.499), or two games below .500. Record since change: 242-244 (.498), or two games below .500. * The Diamondbacks evidently choose managers from the Yellow Pages, as all five in their history have had first names beginning with “A” or “B.” * Anagrams for “Arizona Diamondback” include “A nomadic banzai dork,” “Kinda bad orzo maniac,” and “Maid, czarina and book.” -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.112.25.133