Did the Diamondbacks get enough for Dan Haren?
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/did-the-diamondbacks-get-enough-for-dan-haren/
A week before the trade deadline the Arizona Diamondbacks dealt ace starting
pitcher Dan Haren to the Los Angeles Angels for left-hander Joe Saunders and
prospects Rafael Rodriguez, Patrick Corbin and Tyler Skaggs (the
now-confirmed PTBNL). The haul the Diamondbacks received has been met with a
lot of criticism, considering they traded an star pitcher signed through 2012
at a reasonable price (with a 2013 club option). To truly evaluate the deal,
though, we have to look at all of the moving parts, similarly to how we
examined the Cliff Lee trade that took place earlier this season.
Dan Haren is obviously the biggest prize in the trade and his performance
over the next three-plus years will go a long way in determining the winner
and loser of this deal. This season Haren has put up a 7-10 record and a 4.47
ERA. Those numbers don’t look too pretty, but his underlying stats are more
in line with his career numbers. For example, his strikeout-to-walk ratio of
5.06 is well above his career average and his xFIP of 3.43 is also better
than his career norm.
Haren’s career track record is impressive, as he’s been excellent since
becoming a full time starter in 2005 with Oakland. Check out his year-by-year
WAR since 2005, using FanGraphs’ and Rally’s version (location at Baseball
Reference):
Year Team Innings rWAR fWAR
2005 Oak 217 2.9 4.0
2006 Oak 223 3.6 4.0
2007 Oak 222.7 5.2 4.9
2008 AZ 216 4.8 6.5
2009 AZ 229.7 6.0 6.1
2010 AZ/LA 161 1.6 2.9
The FIP-based fWAR looks a little nicer, but either statistic shows just how
good Haren has been. That said, there are some legitimate reasons for concern
over the next few years. First, Haren has been heavily worked, throwing well
over 200 innings a season every year as a starter. That speaks to his
durability, no doubt, but it’s also taxing on the arm. Further, his best
years are most likely behind him, as we know that peak performance for
pitchers is generally in the mid-to-late 20s.
The Angels are acquiring a top-shelf starting pitcher, but they are also
getting him when his performance (mostly his durability) should start to
gradually decline. With that in mind, it’s no sure thing that Haren’s
performance will deteriorate over the next few years. For instance, a number
of his comparables from Baseball Reference, guys like Roy Halladay and Kevin
Brown, actually improved in their age 30-32 seasons (compared to their 27-29
years).
We can attempt to discern Haren’s surplus value by using our Oliver
projections on Haren through 2013:
Year WAR Value Salary Surplus Value
2010 1.8 $6.3M $2.7M $3.6M
2011 5.0 $20M $12.75M $7.25M
2012 4.1 $18.5M $12.75M $5.75
2013 3.1 $15.5M $15.5M $0
Total 14 $60.3 $43.7 $16.6M
There are some factors that could push Haren’s surplus value over $20
million, like a slight playoff bonus for this season and the compensatory
picks Arizona will likely receive when he departs. He’s a great pitcher and
a valuable asset for the Angels, but he is being paid somewhat handsomely and
is entering his 30s.
The only major leaguer heading to Arizona is Saunders, a serviceable
left-handed starter who gobbles up innings at a near league average rate.
Saunders’ strikeout numbers (career 5.1 per nine) don’t inspire a lot of
confidence, but he does limit walks and he puts up decent enough groundball
rates. His pitch-to-contact style isn’t ideal for hitter-friendly Arizona,
but Saunders should at least help to fortify a rotation losing its best
member.
Saunders makes about $1.2 million for the remainder of this season and is
under arbitration through 2012. Here’s a look at his projected surplus value:
Year WAR Value Salary Surplus Value
2010 .5 $1.75M $1.2M $.55M
2011 1.6 $6.4M $3.8M* $2.6M
2012 .8 $3.6M $2.9M* $.7M
Total 2.9 $11.75M $7.9M $3.85M
*estimated based on Tango’s 40-60-80 rule
Saunders’ 2011 and 2012 salaries will likely be higher than my estimates, as
he’s already making $3.7 million this season. Conversely, the large
projected drop-off from 2011 to 2012 seems a bit harsh. Estimating Saunders’
surplus value anywhere from zero to $5 million is probably reasonable,
depending on how you project his performance and salary. He does help to
soften the blow from losing Haren, at least somewhat. Of course, the main
reason the Diamondbacks dealt Haren is to rebuild by acquiring prospects. Let
’s take a look at the three pieces they picked up.
Tyler Skaggs, a 6-4 lefty who just turned 19, is the centerpiece of the deal
for Arizona. Skaggs was drafted 40th overall in the 2009 amateur draft. He’s
spent this season at Single-A Cedar Rapids, putting up a 3.61 ERA in 82.3
innings (82 strikeouts, 21 walks, six homers). Prior to the season, Skaggs
was ranked as the Angels' eighth best prospect by Baseball America, ninth by
Kevin Goldtsein and seventh by John Sickels. Skaggs is going to need time to
develop, but the projectability is certainly there.
Patrick Corbin is another young lefty (just turned 21) who is in the midst of
an excellent sophomore campaign. In 126.2 innings split between Single-A and
High-A, Corbin has struck out 118 while walking 30 and surrendering nine home
runs. Prior to the season, he was ranked 21st in the Angels organization by
John Sickels, but it’s safe to say that his stock is on the rise.
Rafael Rodriguez appears to be an organizational filler type, as he’s
pitched almost 800 innings in the minors since 2002 with relatively
unimpressive results (6.9 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9). He’s appeared in 32.2
innings in the majors over the last two seasons and he’s been hit very hard,
with a 5.51 ERA and a K/9 of just three. Using Victor Wang’s research on the
surplus value of prospects, here’s what we can expect out of the trio
received by Arizona:
Player Status Surplus Value
Tyler Skaggs Grade B Pitcher $7.3M
Patrick Corbin Grade C Pitcher $2.1M
Rafael Rodriguez - -
Adding Saunders to the equation gives us about $13.25 million in total
surplus value going to Arizona. That mark is shy of Haren’s $16.6 million,
but it really isn’t too far off, especially considering there’s a large
margin of error here. Haren’s surplus value may be a bit conservative, but
at the same time Skaggs and Corbin are having very good years and their
prospect status is on the rise. To me, it appears like a relatively equal
swap, though I’d certainly be willing to give the edge to the Angels.
With that in mind, I don’t fully understand the negativity toward the
Diamondbacks' side of this deal. Yes, they traded a very good pitcher and
they probably didn’t have to go into full rebuild mode right now. They did,
however, get a couple of nice pieces in return, not to mention a serviceable
starter in Saunders. Sure, you would have liked to see them get a bit more
out of Haren, perhaps from a contender in the heat of a pennant race. But
maybe the market just wasn’t there for Haren, for whatever reasons.
It seems that Haren’s value is a little overrated. He’s under control
through 2013, but he is making more $40 million in that time period (if the
option is picked up). That’s not a ton of money for an ace starter, but it
isn’t exactly a bargain either. The Diamondbacks probably could have got a
little bit more for the rights to Haren, but in the end the package they
received is at least a respectable return.
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