Arizona Diamondbacks Top 20 Prospects for 201
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1) Trevor Bauer, RHP, Grade A: I am a total believer, and fully expect Bauer
to be a number one starter. I would have picked him over Gerrit Cole. Despite
the heavy UCLA workload, I don't think his risk is any higher than any other
pitcher his age, and it could be lower.
2) Jarrod Parker, RHP, Grade A- I wish his strikeout rate was higher and I
think he needs some Triple-A time. I don't think he uses his breaking stuff
as much as he did pre-injury, but overall he still looks like a future
rotation anchor to me. The risk may be higher than some anticipate, but the
ceiling is quite high.
3) Tyler Skaggs, LHP, Grade A-: I don't know what to say here other than he's
really good. Scouting reports are quite strong, numbers excellent, future
number two starter although if everything works out. If everything works out
(more on that below).
4) Archie Bradley, RHP, Grade A-: I very seldom give a grade like this to a
high school pitcher, but I believe in Bradley almost as much as I believe in
Bauer. He could be number one on this list a year from now.
5) Andrew Chafin, LHP, Grade B: I'm being more cautious here than with
Bradley even though Chafin is a college guy; that's an instinctual call at
this point. He has enough upside to rank higher next year if pro adjustment
goes well. Could be number two starter or (at worst) a power reliever.
6) Patrick Corbin, LHP, Grade B-: Borderline B. Doesn't get as much attention
as fellow-Haren-trade-acquisition Skaggs, but is a fine prospect in his own
right who can develop into a mid-rotation starter.
7) A.J. Pollock, OF, Grade B-: Main question here is if he will develop more
home run power, but he has a broad range of skills and is fully recovered
from the 2010 elbow injury.
8) Matt Davidson, 3B-1B, Grade B-: I like him more than the similar Bobby
Borchering at this point, but Double-A will greatly test his ability to make
contact and he still needs defensive polish.
9) Bryan Shaw, RHP, Grade B-: That's a pretty nasty cutter he's developed,
and he always had the arm strength to succeed if the control was there. I
think he could close eventually.
10) Adam Eaton, OF, Grade B-: I saw him in the Arizona Fall League and I buy
into him. Not a big guy, but he's got some tools and hustles his rear off.
The stats are strong, and he can be a superb fourth outfielder or possibly a
David DeJesus-type regular.
11) David Holmberg, LHP, Grade B-: You can make a case to rank him as high as
7th. Like Corbin, can be a mid-rotation starter.
12) Anthony Meo, RHP, Grade B-: Given the depth of pitching here, he might
get overlooked. Will he start or relieve at higher levels? Grade could be at
least a slot higher next year, maybe more.
13) Bobby Borchering, 1B-3B, Grade C+: Paired with Davidson and a similar
profile as a power hitter, but with even worse contact problems and a weaker
glove. Still young enough to improve.
14) Collin Cowgill, OF, Grade C+: Like Pollock and Eaton, he has a broad
range of skills. I think Eaton has a bit more zoomph in his bat so I rank him
a notch higher with the grade.
15) Wade Miley, LHP, Grade C+: Can develop into a nice four/five starter, but
he needs to do it right now or he'll get buried by guys with higher ceilings.
16) Ryan Wheeler, 3B, Grade C+: Glove is mediocre but he should be able to
hit enough to hold a bench job as a 3B-1B-PH type for the right team.
17) Chris Owings, SS, Grade C+: Would rank higher based solely on youth,
tools and upside, but his approach at the plate is currently awful and he
needs better defensive reliability. High ceiling but a low floor.
18) Marc Krauss, OF, Grade C+: I think he's better than he looked last year,
but will be more of a platoon/role player than a future regular.
19) Charles Brewer, RHP, Grade C+: Lost much of season to broken hand, and
easy to overlook with the other live arms in the system. Like Miley, he has a
short window of opportunity to establish himself but has a shot at becoming a
back-end rotation member or a reliever.
20) David Nick, 2B , Grade C+: Contact hitter with gap power but needs to
prove he can produce outside of the California League.
21) Kyle Winkler, RHP, Grade C+: TCU product from 2011 draft could rank much
higher next year if elbow injury suffered late in college season doesn't hold
him back.
22) Yonata Ortega, RHP, Grade C+: Can be a very useful reliever if he throws
enough strikes.
23) Ryan Cook, RHP, Grade C+: Another live-armed reliever who can be useful
if his command holds up.
24) Evan Marshall, RHP, Grade C+: Kansas State fourth round pick finished pro
debut in Double-A, another potentially solid relief arm.
OTHERS: Chase Anderson, RHP; Michael Bolsinger, RHP; J.R. Bradley, RHP; Keon
Broxton, OF; Jesse Darrah, RHP; Eury De La Rosa, LHP; Tyler Green, RHP; Tyler
Linton, OF; Wagner Mateo, OF; John Pedrotty, LHP; Michael Perez, C; Blake
Perry, RHP; Robby Rowland, RHP; Patrick Schuster, LHP; Taylor Siemens, LHP
Pitching is the obvious strength here. Arizona has four pitchers who project
as number one or two starters with Bauer, Parker, Skaggs, and Bradley. Chafin
isn't far behind, and then there are several other arms who could be
inning-eaters or useful relievers. Keep in mind, of course, that if you have
five great pitching prospects, you're doing well if you get one or two
above-average pitchers. Remember what happened to the Royals last year.
Someone will get hurt or backslide.
The weakness here is obvious, too: depth in position players. There is no one
here who looks like a potential star hitter. Davidson and Borchering have
impressive power but will their contact issues be troublesome at higher
levels? I suspect so. They aren't going to hit for average, and how do they
both fit in the lineup? You do have three intriguing outfielders in Pollock,
Eaton, and Cowgill, but they look like fine role players or average regulars,
not stars. Owings has a lot of potential up the middle but is extremely raw
and has a high risk of failure.
Overall, the pitching is going to make this a fun organization to follow in
2012 and beyond.
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