Kubel pickup raises questions

看板Diamondbacks作者reasonchen (堅強的理由)時間13年前 (2011/12/20 21:42)推噓8(8推 0噓 5→)

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Source: http://www.azcentral.com/members/Blog/NickPiecoro/151087 翻譯請往下走... Kubel pickup raises questions The focus all off-season has been on pitching – on upgrading the rotation, on further reinforcing the bullpen. And even after trading for Trevor Cahill and signing Takashi Saito in the past 10 days, it still seemed as though the Diamondbacks were focused on arms. And then they turned around and agreed to terms with outfielder Jason Kubel on a two-year, $15 million deal. It's an interesting signing, both because it came out of nowhere and because of the questions it raises, most of which revolve around incumbent left fielder Gerardo Parra. Do the Diamondbacks have that little faith in Parra's offensive ability? Do they intend to trade him? The answer to the first question almost certainly is a resounding yes. And, in many ways, I don't blame them. I've gone back and forth on Parra throughout his career, wondering if he'd ever be able to hit enough to be an everyday corner outfielder. He never had much power, never had much of a knack for getting on base and never was too successful against left-handed pitching. Without those things, his value as an outfielder was tied into his defense, and since he was limited to a corner position, his value was diminished. But he did a lot of things well this season. He obviously was a tremendous defender, rating well in all the advanced metrics and passing the eyeball test , evidenced by his Gold Glove award. He fared better against lefties. He hit eight home runs, equaling his career total entering the year. And he even posted a decent on-base percentage, though that number might not look so good when his 16 intentional walks (a product of batting eighth) are factored out. Yes, he's still young (24), but I wouldn't blame the Diamondbacks if they thought this might be as good as Parra gets. He doesn't seem to recognize how to pull the ball with consistency, greatly limiting his power. He tends to give a lot of at-bats away. He's a ground-ball hitting machine. Still, there are reasons to raise your eyebrows with this signing. Kubel is not a good defender – in fact, the metrics say he's much worse than“not good.” He's been 17 runs below average (per UZR/150 games) in 3,087 career innings. Parra, meanwhile, has been 11.1 runs above average as a left fielder. Is Kubel's bat good enough to off-set that kind of defensive loss? Moreover, the Diamondbacks' pitching staff is filled with flyball pitchers. Daniel Hudson, Ian Kennedy and Josh Collmenter all skew that way. (Cahill is an exception.) Plus, there seems to be more ground to cover in the outfields of NL West ballparks than any other division. The outfield defense provided by Parra, Chris Young and Justin Upton was a big reason why that fly-ball heavy staff was able to post such solid numbers across the board and why the Diamondbacks won 94 games last season. Kubel clearly isn't a perfect fit. But if he gets back to hitting the way he did in 2009, he'd probably make up for the loss in defense, especially if you think Parra's 2011 offensive season was the outlier and not the norm. And if the Diamondbacks were worried Hiroki Kuroda wasn't going to land here, anyway, how else were they going to get better on a short-term commitment? Carlos Beltran is 35 and, I'm guessing, will require a three-year deal. A higher ceiling, yes, but is that a wiser investment than the 29-year-old Kubel? Honestly, I'm not sure. But from reading the web analysis today, my fence- sitting perspective seems to be the minority. We'll see how it plays out. 整個季後的聚焦一直鎖定在投手輪值升級，進一步強化牛棚，儘管在過去10天先交易來 Cahill後簽下齋藤大叔，小蛇似乎仍然想補強投手。然後他們卻轉向，同意以兩年15M簽下外野手Kubel。這是個有意思的簽約，一是因為無跡可循，二是因為其所引起的問題大多圍繞著現任的左外野手Parra。是小蛇對Parra的攻擊能力沒信心？還是想交易掉他？第一個問題的答案幾乎毫無疑問是yes，在很多方面來說，我並不會怪小蛇。我反覆思索Parra的生涯，想知道他的打擊是否能足夠勝任每天上場的角落外野手，他從來沒不以爆發力著稱，從來沒有很強的上壘本領，對左投從來沒有表現的很成功；沒有這些東西，他身為一名外野手的價值只跟防守有關，而且因為他受限於防守角落位置，價值也因此變低。但是本季他在很多方面都表現沒話說。他很明顯地是個頂尖的防守者，在進階數據上的排名很好，通過眼球測試，這從獲得金手套獎即可得證；面對左投時打的比較好了，整年敲的8發HR是他過去生涯的總和，甚至繳出頗像樣的上壘率，雖然這個數字在排除16次故意四壞後，看來就不是那麼的好。是的，他24歲仍然年輕，但我不會怪小蛇，如果他們認為Parra能做到的就是這些事情而已。他似乎不知道如何運用協調性進行拉打，大大影響他的爆發力；他奉送了很多打數，他是個滾地球製造機。儘管如此，這個簽約還是有其他使你深感驚訝的理由。Kubel的防守並不好，事實上，數據顯示他的防守差到連"不好"都談不上，生涯3087守備局數中所產生的UZR，相較於一般外野手，Kubel會讓投手多丟17分，而守左外野的Parra卻能為投手多守住11.1分！那Kubel的棒子好到夠抵銷他在防守上的失敗嗎？此外，小蛇的投手陣容多為飛球型，Hudson、Kennedy和Collmenter都偏這派，Cahill則是例外。而且，國聯西區球場的外野面積都較其他分區為大... Parra、Young、Upton提供的外野防守，是小蛇的重度飛球型投手們在今年能繳出如此優異數據，並拿下94勝的重要原因。 Kubel坦白講不是最適合的人選，但如果他的攻擊能回到2009年的水準，大概能彌補其防守上的缺陷，尤其是假設你認為Parra在2011年的攻擊火力只是曇花一現的話。如果小蛇擔心黑田桑不會加盟，無論如何，他們要怎麼作才會獲得短期內較好的回報？我猜35歲的Beltran將需要一份三年合約，是得花較多錢沒錯，但比起29歲的Kubel，會是個較聰明的投資嗎？老實說，我不確定。但是今天讀完網站分析文後，我的中立觀點似乎僅是少數人的看法，就讓我們看下去吧.... -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 125.231.135.79