[外電] Fangraphs評價我們家農場

看板Diamondbacks作者fountainNess (秋本平吉千人將)時間9年前 (2015/11/11 01:08)推噓7(7推 0噓 36→)

留言43則, 7人參與討論串1/1

http://goo.gl/k41uRZ by Dan Farnsworth What they may lack in impact bats, the Diamondbacks make up for with pitching depth. They have a lot of pitchers with high floors in the upper levels of the minors, and a few in the low minors that should move quickly. A few have top of the rotation potential. The addition of Dansby Swanson to the organization this June does a lot to help reinforce the offensive pipeline, but the team will have to do a better job developing hitters over the next few years. Their quantity of outfield options is solid, and was something of a logjam in the upper minors this season. That four players who started playing for the team in 2015 make the top eight here is a good sign for their talent acquisition going forward. Look for the pitchers to start making their presence felt in the big leagues in 2016 and 2017, while we wait on some of the lower-level hitting prospects to put things together. Here’s the primer for the series and my scouting thoughts in general. The grades I put on players heavily weight the functionality of each tool in game situations, rather than just pure tool grades. Here is a table to understand the position player grades: Grade Tool Is Called BA HR ISO Baserunning Runs Fielding Runs 80 80 0.320 40 0.300 12 30 75 0.310 35-40 0.275 10 25 70 Plus Plus 0.300 30-35 0.250 8 20 65 0.290 27-30 0.225 6 15 60 Plus 0.280 23-27 0.200 4 10 55 Above Average 0.270 19-22 0.175 2 5 50 Average 0.260 15-18 0.150 0 0 45 Below Average 0.250 12-15 0.125 -2 -5 40 0.240 8-12 0.100 -4 -10 35 0.230 5-8 0.075 -6 -15 30 0.220 3-5 0.050 -8 -20 As well as one to understand what the overall grades approximate: Scouting Grades in Context: Overall Grade Hitter Starting Pitcher Relief Pitcher WAR 80 Top 1-2 #1 Starter 7 75 Top 2-3 #1 6 70 Top 5 #1/2 5 65 All-Star #2/3 4 60 Plus #3 High Closer 3 55 Above Avg #3/4 Mid Closer 2.5 50 Avg Regular #4 Low CL/High SU 2 45 Platoon/Util #5 Low Setup 1.5 40 Bench Swing/Spot SP Middle RP 1 35 Emergency Call-Up Emergency Call-Up Emergency Call-Up 0 One other difference for the way I’ll be communicating scouting grades to you is the presence of three numbers on each tool instead of just two. The first number is the current grade. The second number is the likely future grade; or, if you prefer percentiles, call this the 50th percentile projection. The third number is the ceiling grade, or 90th percentile projection, to help demonstrate the volatility and raw potential of a tool. I feel this gives readers a better sense of the possible outcomes a player could achieve, and more information to understand my thoughts on the likelihood of reaching those levels. 這篇文章用三個數字評價tool:現在/最可能的future/天花板 In the biographical information, level refers to where they finished the year, unless they were sent down for injury rehab or other extraneous reasons. Ages are listed as of April 1, 2016. You can also find each player’s previous rank from Kiley’s list last year. Below, Dave Cameron shares his thoughts on the general state of the organization. Returning for his popular cameo, Carson Cistulli picks his favorite fringe prospect toward the end of the list. Next up will be the Atlanta Braves. Organizational Overview The Diamondbacks feature a strong core of position player talent, with Paul Goldschmidt establishing himself as a truly elite player, while A.J. Pollock and David Peralta are looking like high-quality pieces as well. Nick Ahmed‘s strong defense and Jake Lamb‘s offensive potential give them a few more young solid everyday pieces, and Yasmany Tomas was liked well enough by international scouts to not give up on even after a lousy rookie season. So, there’s a base from which to build off of, but the organization lacks pitching, both in terms of impact and depth, and they have a ways to climb to catch the Dodgers in the NL West. With some loaded clubs in the Central and some strong young clubs in the East, the Wild Card isn’t an easily obtained goal in the National League, so the front office is going to make some big upgrades to take advantage of Goldschmidt’s peak, or else they risk getting caught in the circle of being a decent also-ran. 50+ FV PROSPECTS 1. Dansby Swanson, SS Current Level/Age: AA/22.1, 6’1/190, R/R Acquired: Drafted 1st overall (1st round) in 2015 out of Vanderbilt by ARZ for $6.5 million bonus Previous Rank: NA Despite receiving only 99 plate appearances this season after getting drafted number one overall, Swanson showed a lot of promise in Low-A Hillsboro. His swing consists of an excellent hand path built for staying in the contact zone. He has a tendency for his hips to slide forward underneath him, leaving him a bit too reliant on driving balls with strength in his front leg, which contributes to a bat arch that is a little too level for consistent power currently. A club official I spoke to praised Swanson for his work ethic, and asserted his potential to be a 20-homer hitter with some further development. I think he will end up a little below that level, but with plenty of doubles and all-around contributions to be a dynamite player. Defensively he has excellent feet in the field, allowing his above-average to plus arm play up even higher on bang-bang plays. He is able to get his body moving quickly in any direction, redirecting his momentum very effectively, a true impact player at a premium position. Hit: 50/60/70 Power: 35/45/55 Run: 55/60/60 Field: 60/65/70 Throw: 60/60/60 FV/Role: 55, Above-average to plus regular 2. Braden Shipley, RHP Current Level/Age: AA/24.1, 6’3/190, R/R Acquired: Drafted 15th overall (1st round) in 2013 out of Nevada by ARZ for $2.25 million bonus Previous Rank: 2 Shipley has a solid lower half with good drive and sequencing. He has a tight upper back which rounds his shoulders forward, leaving his shoulders have to work more on the chest-side of his body. At first glance this makes it seem like he couldn’t be deceptive, since he physically can’t bring the ball completely behind his body after his hands break. Shipley makes up for it with a slight turn away from the plate as he picks up his stride foot to go to the plate, and he’s athletic enough that it doesn’t throw off his consistency. Shipley has the makings of an excellent starter’s arsenal, with his best offering being a sharp curve, showing an ability to get it over for strikes and to bury it for a swing-and-miss pitch. His fastball is more a velocity than movement or command weapon currently, but the repeatability of his delivery and his overall athleticism make it likely to see improvements in how well he can place it. The change-up looks similar to his fastball out of his hand, though it is relatively straight, and thus probably does not have the ceiling of the other two. After a brutal start to the season in Mobile, Shipley turned in a quality season overall by decreasing his walk and home run rates despite the drop in strikeouts. Reports are that he found and corrected a mechanical issue halfway through the year that made a big difference. The negative attitude toward his 2015 season is mostly overblown, and it’s important to note he hasn’t logged as many innings as other pitching prospects, having only started pitching in college. The strikeouts are likely to tick back up as his fastball and change-up improve this season, leaving Shipley as the best high minors pitching prospect the Diamondbacks have at present. Fastball: 92-95 50/60/65 Curveball: 55/60/70 Change-up: 45/50/55 Command: 45/55/60 FV/Role: 55, #3/4 Starter with upside 3. Wei-Chieh Huang, RHP Current Level/Age: A/22.5, 6’1/170, R/R Acquired: Signed in 2014 out of Taiwan by ARZ for unknown bonus Previous Rank: NA It’s pronounced “Way-Jay,” which is way cooler sounding than the butchered version I was using when I first saw his name. Huang throws from a high three-quarters slot with a clean arm action all the way through his delivery. Like many Asian imports, he has somewhat of a drop-and-drive delivery, but still keeps his back hip tall as he strides to maintain his balance instead of collapsing too far on his back leg and throwing uphill. He has two pitches in his fastball and change-up that project as plus, and he commands both of them extremely well for a young hurler. Both have good running action, and the change-up really falls off the table down in the zone. His fastball sits at 89-92, running up to 93-94 in small samples, but the command and movement are where this pitch has the most upside. He also has a curveball and a slider, the latter of which was rarely used this season. The curve lags behind currently, as Huang has not found the shape and arm speed to put it near the same level of his best offerings. He has room to add some muscle as he matures, but even without further physical development he could be on the fast track to the high minors. A team official I spoke with believes it’s realistic we will see Huang in Double-A Mobile by the end of this season. Fastball 89-92 (94) 50/60/65 Change-up: 55/65/70 Curveball: 40/45/50 Slider: TBD Command: 50/60/65 FV/Role: 55, #3/4 Starter with upside 4. Aaron Blair, RHP Current Level/Age: AAA/23.8, 6’4/205, R/R Acquired: 36th overall (Supplemental 1st round) in 2013 out of Marshall by ARZ for $1.435 million bonus Previous Rank: 3 Blair has a good arm with a strong but stiff body. There is not a lot of athleticism in his delivery, almost looking like his body gets dragged along into his follow through by his strong arm. A D-backs official says not to let his body fool you, praising his overall athleticism. Even with some slight mechanical qualms, he has a relatively simple approach to the plate, and has an easy time keeping the ball in the zone. He pitches to contact and is a hard-worker. Blair has some good arm-side run and sink on his fastball, lending to a future as a ground-ball artist fit for the middle or back end of a rotation, given his control. He still needs to harness the command of his pitches to reach that ceiling, but it is looking more likely with each step up the minor league ladder. The change-up is still ahead of the curve at the moment, though the movement on the curve this year showed potential as a plus pitch. The deception and fade on his change-up will keep him viable as a starting option even without continued advances in the breaking ball. The command of the fastball and continued development in the feel of his change will be the determining factors in his place in the Diamondbacks rotation. Fastball: 90-94 50/55/60 Curveball: 50/55/60 Change-up: 55/60/65 Command: 50/55/60 FV/Role: 55, #3/4 Starter 5. Socrates Brito, OF Current Level/Age: MLB/23.6, 6’1/220, L/L Acquired: Signed in 2010 out of Dominican Republic by ARZ for $90,000 bonus Previous Rank: 21 Brito finished an excellent 2015 season in the big leagues for Arizona, showing off his capabilities as a singles and gap hitter, matched with solid outfield defense. He is still an unfinished product, to be expected jumping right from Double-A for his late-season cameo. Brito makes about average contact, and has not been able to tap into his above-average raw power in games so far. His level swing plane does not provide much optimism to him finding it anytime soon. Still, he gets his hands in the zone deep and does a good job of staying through the ball much better than a couple seasons ago. He also swings at everything, but does enough damage with the balls he puts in play it won’t kill him as a prospect. The total package gives me confidence he can be a plus hitter with minimal improvements to his approach, possibly more. He’s a plus to plus-plus runner who has succeeded stealing and taking extra bases in the minors, a skill that could develop further over the next couple years. Given his baserunning prowess his range is a bit less than expected, leaving him more of a right field fit, though his ability to make plays at the limits of his range could bump him into center field quality if he finds enough consistency and maintains his current speed. Brito flashed a plus arm in his short time in the majors, likely playing higher in games on account of his quick feet and release. Hit: 50/60/65 Power: 35/40/50 Run: 60/60/65 Field: 55/60/65 Throw: 60/65/65 FV/Role: 55, Above-average to plus regular 6. Archie Bradley, RHP Current Level/Age: AAA/23.6, 6’4/235, R/R Acquired: Drafted 7th overall (1st round) in 2011 out of Oklahoma HS by ARZ for $5.0 million bonus Previous Rank: 1 Bradley’s 2015 stint was a mixed bag of progress. He made it to the big leagues and had a few brilliant moments of success. His walk rate was high but he pitched into the zone at an above average rate, and he produced a high ground ball rate, though he had not shown that propensity before and doesn’t have an obvious ground ball-inducing pitch. His fastball is a pretty impressive pitch as far as intent and command go, but the inconsistency of the life on it this year holds down the current grade for now. The curve showed real potential at times, flashing at least plus depth, though hitters being able to wait for the inevitable hanger limited the value of it this season. The change-up is just a show-me pitch currently, though team officials recognized the efforts he put into developing it this year. He relies a lot on his arm speed rather than good sequencing with his lower body, which makes the shoulder injury more concerning than for most. Bradley was noticeably affected by getting hit by a line drive earlier in the season, so we can probably give him a pass on many of the concerns for now. With his season ending prematurely, combined with his history of control problems that has not yet been conquered, Bradley’s future is still a slight question mark despite his undeniable talent. There still remains the distinct possibility he can get back on track as a mid-high end future starter. Fastball: 91-94 55/60/70 Curveball: 45/55/65 Change-up: 40/40/50 Command: 45/50/60 FV/Role: 50, #4 Starter 7. Yoan Lopez, RHP Current Level/Age: AA/23.2, 6’3/185, R/R Acquired: Signed in 2015 out of Cuba by ARZ for $8.25 million bonus Previous Rank: NA Lopez had a rough year adjusting to professional baseball life, with injuries and a personal issue taking time away from his development on the field. Judging him from a projection standpoint, the command questions may be overblown, which those close to the situation attribute to trying to do too much at times. He has really smooth actions on the mound, currently lacking in the consistency of his release timing leading to more than a few fastballs missing up in the zone. The easiness of his delivery limits the need to bulk up to go deep into games with his stuff. With normal physical maturation and the improved body awareness that comes with it, I think this is something that cleans up easily. The curve and change are works in progress, but the fastball and slider are presently enough to project him as at least a dangerous reliever. The curve did flash around average at points this year. Though the lost development time muddles the picture, he’s still very young, I see him figuring things out on the field to project as at least a mid-rotation starter. Fastball: 92-95 45/60/65 Slider: 45/55/60 Curveball: 40/45/55 Change-up: 40/45/50 Command: 40/55/65 FV/Role: 50, #4 Starter, low closer/high setup 8. Alex Young, LHP Current Level/Age: A-/22.6, 6’2/205, L/L Acquired: Drafted 43rd overall (2nd round) in 2015 out of Texas Christian by ARZ for $1.4314 million bonus Previous Rank: Armed with a 93-95 mph fastball and an average or better slider, Young was tabbed as a solid pick in the 2015 draft who could move quickly through the system. Young commands his fastball and slider well already, though his change-up is hit or miss currently, albeit with above-average to plus flashes. The plan for him is to continue as a starter for now, though a strong future in the bullpen is certainly a viable outcome for him. He has an arm-heavy delivery that can get high-effort, which gives me some concern about him holding his velocity as a starter. Prior to the draft, he had moments where he really heaved the ball at the plate, though in general had a repeatable motion and obviously good results. He does flash pretty good arm action on his change-up, but lacks real feel for finishing it currently. Fastball: 93-95 50/55/60 Slider: 45/55/65 Change-up: 35/50/55 Command:45/55/60 FV/Role: 50, #4 Starter, low closer/high setup 先貼到這邊...後面還有20+個prospect Farnsworth的排名還蠻有趣的今年有入選未來之星的黃暐傑跟Brito都排在蠻前面的 Brito九月上來之後我覺得令人眼睛為之一亮,打擊、速度表現都不錯,但是防守穩定度(尤其傳球)還需要加強,但他天份的確擺在那邊有空再來翻譯... -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 123.193.214.219 ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Diamondbacks/M.1447175310.A.124.html

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