[情報] KLaw on Souza's trade

看板Diamondbacks作者fountainNess (YasmanyTomas今年40HR)時間6年前 (2018/02/23 01:00)推噓1(1推 0噓 0→)

留言1則, 1人參與討論串1/1

Tuesday's three-team, five-player trade (with two more players to be named later) was apparently several weeks in the making, and sees two 2017 playoff teams improving themselves for this season, while the Tampa Bay Rays continue to deal veteran players who don't project to be around when their next young core is ready to contend. Steven Souza Jr. made some swing and approach changes last season in Tampa Bay to unlock more power, boost his walk rate and even get his strikeout rate down to a still-high 29 percent -- a level that at least allows him to be a productive hitter. He's an above-average defender in right field, and even if some of the power spike was fluky or a result of the juiced ball, he's also moving to a very good home run park in Arizona's Chase Field. Combining Souza with Jarrod Dyson (signed for two years and $7.5 million) gives the Diamondbacks a very good if relatively unknown four-man rotation for their outfield. Dyson is the extra guy but is capable of starting in center -- important given A.J. Pollock's injury history -- and offering potentially above-average defense at all three spots. Taylor Widener was the No. 15 prospect in the Yankees' system, coming off a great year as a starter that was his first full injury-free season in that role since at least high school. The right-hander has been clocked throwing up to 95 mph, complemented by a solid-average changeup and breaking ball, the former missing more bats and the latter generating weak contact. There's back-end starter upside, while Widener could be better in a long reliever/swingman role because he doesn't have a platoon split. The Diamondbacks won 93 games last year, in a season where a lot of things went right, but they seem to be planning for some modest regression by picking up several inexpensive players who can help mitigate any slippage from 2017. Anthony Banda was ranked seventh in Arizona's system, and has both a plus fastball and some solid-average secondary stuff, showing plenty of control but below-average fastball command that made him very homer-prone. The Rays don't need a fifth starter for the first month of 2018, but Banda would be a potential candidate for the fifth spot (behind the incumbent, Matt Andriese, who will start the season in the bullpen). The left-hander is perhaps a bit more major league-ready than Brent Honeywell but lacking Honeywell's much higher upside. If Banda can improve his command, he could be a solid No. 4 starter, whereas right now his projection is more fifth starter-like because of the likelihood he'll give up 30 homers over a full season. Joining Banda en route to Tampa Bay is second-base prospect Nick Solak, who projects as a below-average regular, with some feel to hit but high strikeout rates, below-average power and just average run and field tools. He was ranked No. 18 in the Yankees' system, and would not crack Tampa Bay's top 15. The Rays were crushed last week after trading right-hander Jake Odorizzi for a minor prospect and designating DH Corey Dickerson for assignment, but those moves were generally team-neutral for 2018. Odorizzi was replacement-level last season and missed time with a back injury that calls his durability into question going forward; the Rays had Andriese, Honeywell and perhaps Jose De Leon to fill that spot at lower cost without any projected lack of production. Dickerson's crazy first half last season was a big outlier from the rest of his career; he hit just .241/.282/.408 in the second half, closer to his career norms before the season, and he's long had trouble hitting lefties. The free-agent market this winter was flooded with left-handed-hitting, left field/first base/DH types, which meant there wasn't much market for Dickerson's services either -- so by cutting him now, the Rays saved 83 percent of his salary, and might be a win worse for the exchange. This deal, on the other hand, hurts the Rays for 2018; Souza was about a four-win player last season, and even if you assume some regression from his career highs across the board, I don't think you could rationally project him to be worse than 3.0 WAR in a full season. The Rays can still come out ahead in this deal depending on who the players to be named are -- I'm told they're more than just throw-ins -- but Souza, with three years remaining before free agency , is a big loss, and Banda and Solak alone don't make up for it. The Yankees' side of this is the easiest and probably least interesting to discuss. Brandon Drury can play third base for them every day if they want to give Miguel Andujar (and Gleyber Torres) more time in Triple-A, and he's played some second base -- not very well, but enough that he could at least take on the position on a part-time basis. If and when the Yankees decide to give those two positions to their top two position-player prospects, Drury is an excellent bench piece who can fill in at multiple spots. I'd like to see the Yanks give him some work this spring at first base, a position he hasn't played since rookie ball, but one he should be able to handle without trouble; it would give him even more value and would give them a fallback option if Greg Bird continues to have trouble staying healthy. Giving up two prospects from beyond their top 10 for a piece like Drury who helps them now and still has some untapped power makes perfect sense. -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 123.194.157.166 ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Diamondbacks/M.1519318840.A.0F5.html