[情報] 2018 Draft
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Matt McLain
McLain has taken advantage of a down year in Southern California this spring,
hitting in seemingly every game he's played. His performance was so strong,
in fact, that area scouts began putting his name in the same conversation as
fellow California shortstop Brice Turang--which would have seemed absurd just
a year ago. A 5-foot-10, righthanded hitter without a ton of power, McLain
doesn't seem to profile as a top-50 pick, but he's given himself a chance to
be selected that high because he simply does everything well. He makes all
the plays at shortstop as a soft-gloved infielder with agility, body control,
impressive footwork and a solid arm, and he's regularly given scouts plus
running times down the line. While McLain is a shorter prospect, he's not
built slightly. He's put on as much strength as he can for now, to the point
where he's showing some surprising power in games, although he'll never
project as a plus power hitter. He regularly hits the ball hard and with
authority, frequently going to right-center with impact. McLain has shown
enough bat-to-ball skills that scouts are putting a 50 or even 60 grade on
his future hit tool. While some evaluators believe he might move off
shortstop at the next level--he's not a Nick Allen sort of defender--he's hit
enough this spring to rise up draft boards. Seemingly all of his tools have
improved this spring, and with good makeup to top things off, it's unlikely
he ever sets foot on campus at UCLA, where he is committed.
Jake McCarthy
The Virginia center fielder hasn''t been able to showcase his ability for
most of the spring season, playing just 13 games because of a left wrist
injury sustained in early March. As of April 26, McCarthy had yet to return
to action, but he did hit .314/.446/.412 in his brief 13-game stint before
the injury. Scouts and evaluators aren't dinging him too much for the injury,
as it's not a chronic issue and his overall package and track record is
impressive. With a strong return--whenever that may be--McCarthy could push
himself into the first round as a college outfielder with a chance to play
center field with above-average to plus speed. Missing this many games during
a draft season is easier to tolerate with McCarthy because his history in the
ACC and with a wood bat is so impressive. In 2017, McCarthy hit
.338/.425/.506 with five home runs, 11 doubles and was seventh in the nation
with seven triples. During the summer, McCarthy played 20 games with USA
Baseball's Collegiate National Team and also hit .387/.441/.613 in a
nine-game stint in the Cape Cod League. He draws some comparisons to former
Virginia outfielder Adam Haseley, with opinions on his defensive ability
ranging from a no-doubt center fielder with some scouts to other evaluators
thinking he merely has a chance to stick there. Where McCarthy winds up will
depend on what he does once healthy, but there's no denying he has an
impressive body of work.
Alek Thomas
Thomas, the son of White Sox strength coach Allen Thomas, is a three-sport
star who is committed to Texas Christian to play both baseball and football.
He is an elite all-around athlete, but his professional future is on the
diamond and he was the leading hitter for USA Baseball's gold-medal winning
18U National Team at last fall's World Cup. Listed at 5-foot-11, 180 pounds,
Thomas is well built and a well above-average runner. He produces
above-average bat speed and has surprising power for a player his size, but
his game is built more around his speed and ability to hit. He has the
potential to be a plus hitter and makes good in-game adjustments, with a
history of barreling up big-time velocity during the summer showcase circuit.
Thomas' speed plays well in the outfield and he covers ground well in center
field, but his arm is below-average and could be his worst tool. One of the
best athletes in the class with a chance to hit and play a solid center
field, Thomas could be among the first prep outfielders selected in June.
There are teams and evaluators who question his future impact, however, and
some aren't sure how much better they can project him.
Jackson Goddard
Goddard missed a month and a half of the season with a strained oblique
muscle, but he got back on the mound in mid-May, when he reminded everyone
why he's an intriguing starting pitching prospect as he struck out the first
seven batters he faced against Oklahoma State. When he's locked in, Goddard
can show three above-average pitches. He has a history of pitching his best
against his toughest opponents. He struck out 13 while walking no one in a
dominating outing as a sophomore against Oklahoma State, and was similarly
effective against Oklahoma and TCU that year, but he ended the season with a
4.29 ERA because he struggled against West Virginia, Samford and Oral
Roberts. Goddard's 92-94 mph fastball plays as an above-average pitch and he
pretty consistently has a plus changeup. His slider is less consistent but
will also show signs of being an above-average pitch at its best. He
struggles to stay in the strike zone consistently, but when he's locked in,
he can be great. Too often, however, he is working hard just to get through
five innings.
Ryan Weiss
Weiss, a draft-eligible redshirt sophomore, has been Wright State's ace for
two seasons. His surface-level stats this spring (9-2, 3.44) haven't matched
his 2017 season (8-1, 2.13), but he's striking out more batters and walking
fewer. Weiss competes with an aggressive, attacking approach. He mixes an
average curve and slurvy slider that often blends with his curvevball. His
fastball sits 91-93 mph and he can touch 95.
Matt Mercer
Mercer has been a mainstay in the Oregon weekend rotation the last two
seasons, compiling a 12-14, 3.55 career record with 155 strikeouts and 72
walks through 200.1 career innings while also impressing in the Cape Cod
League last summer. The 6-foot-1, 185-pound righthander has built up velocity
through his work with the Driveline Baseball training program. Scouts have
had his fastball as high as 98 mph this spring, though he sits more
comfortably in the low to mid-90s. Mercer generates that velocity through a
violent, high-effort delivery that he sometimes struggles to repeat, which
leads some evaluators to believe he'll end up as a reliever long term. He
pairs that fastball with a low-80s breaking ball that has flashed plus when
he's consistent with his release point. Mercer exhibits confidence in his
mid-80s, split-like changeup, which he uses liberally to both lefthanded and
righthanded hitters--at times burying it down and in against righties as an
out-pitch. That three-pitch mix gives Mercer an appealing starter's arsenal,
but he'll need to prove he can repeat his effortful delivery--and stay
healthy--to stay out of the bullpen at the next level.
Ryan Miller
Drafted in the 31st round of the 2017 draft by the Braves, Miller has been a
reliable reliever in Clemson’s bullpen the last two seasons after spending a
year at Florida Atlantic as a hitter in 2015. This spring Miller posted a
2.40 ERa with 58 strikeouts and 15 walks. His fastball jumped up from the
upper-80s with sink to the low to mid-90s late this spring. If that stuff is
a real jump forward, he could be a valuable senior sign.
Travis Moths
After spending most of his career pitching out of Tennessee Tech’s bullpen,
Moths this season moved to the front of the rotation. The senior was named
Ohio Valley Conference pitcher of the year and helped lead the Golden Eagles
to super regionals for the first time in program history. Moths, listed at
6-foot-1, 190 pounds, throws his fastball in the low 90s. His changeup is his
go-to offspeed offering and he also mixes in a curveball. He pitches with
average control.
Levi Kelly
Kelly transferred to IMG Academy this spring to play with Blaze Alexander and
several other talented 2018 prep prospects. This spring, Kelly's velocity has
returned to the range that scouts have seen in the past, as the 6-foot-4
Louisiana State commit was in the upper 80s and low 90s over the summer but
has regularly touched 95-96 mph this spring. He consistently pitches in the
91-92 mph range, though his fastball is fairly flat without natural movement.
He has a fringe-average slider to go along with his fastball, though scouts
note that both of those offerings would play up in the bullpen. With some
effort in his delivery and a slight head whack, a reliever profile is what
many scouts write down for Kelly, but his natural arm strength is exciting
wherever he lands.
Tyler Holton
If Holton were righthanded, there's a chance he isn't on this list at all.
Holton throws a well below-average fastball that sits in the mid-80s and tops
out at 89 mph, and he has thrown just 4.2 innings this spring after tearing
his UCL in February. Because he's left-handed, however, teams will more
easily overlook his lack of pure stuff. If healthy, he would have ranked
among the top 200 prospects in the draft class because of an impressive
resume in the Atlantic Coast Conference. Holton was named first team all-ACC
in 2017 and was a second team All-American after posting a 2.34 ERA in 119
innings with 144 strikeouts and 33 walks. Holton was also the best starter
for USA Baseball's Collegiate National Team in the summer of 2017, when he
posted a 0.69 ERA over in 13 innings with 14 strikeouts and just two walks.
Without an average fastball, Holton excels because of his ability to
effectively spot pitches in and out of the zone. He also has a plus changeup
and a curveball that was showing improvement over the summer. His changeup is
his only plus offering, but each of his pitches will play down at the next
level because no professional hitter will be challenged by his fastball.
There is a professional precedent in Brewers lefthander Brent Suter–who
averages 86 mph with his fastball--and Holton has been compared to him at
times. Suter is three inches taller, however, and there are more medical
questions with Holton as well.
Nick Dalesandro
Dalesandro, the son of former big leaguer Mark Dalesandro, was drafted in the
33rd round out of high school by the Tigers. He continued on to Purdue, where
he’s played in every game for the last three years. He’s a solid defender
behind the plate and has a well above-average arm, which is his best tool. He
’s more athletic than most catchers and also saw some time in the outfield
in the Cape Cod League. But Dalesandro doesn’t hit for much power and his
swing is unconventional, leading to concerns about his hit tool. He has
experience as a pitcher and his arm strength means that he may end up back on
the mound at some point in the future.
Blaze Alexander
His name is fitting, as Blaze Alexander is the hardest-throwing infielder in
the 2018 class. He clocked a now-legendary 99 mph throw from shortstop to
first base last summer during the Perfect Game National Showcase. Alexander,
whose father, Chuck, played in the Indians organization from 1988-91, is a
flashy shortstop who is capable of playing all over the infield thanks to his
advanced internal clock, athleticism, body control, quick hands and obvious
plus-plus arm strength. Most scouts say Alexander has a good chance to play
shortstop at the next level, and he has the elite confidence to make it
happen on top of all the physical tools. Offensively, Alexander has
above-average or plus bat speed that leads to real pull power despite a
smaller, 6-foot, 160-pound frame. He has twitchiness in the box and takes
aggressive swings to get the most out of his power--leading to some swing and
miss during the summer--but he made good adjustments in simplifying both his
handset and his load this spring. Scouts are impressed with his ability to
make adjustments in the box, but there are still some questions about the
impact he'll make down the line with the bat. He's an average runner who is
committed to South Carolina, and if he makes it to campus and develops a
track record hitting in the SEC then he could become a first-round pick
thanks to his elite defensive ability.
Justin Lewis
Lewis was all set to sign with the Rays as an 11th-round pick last summer,
but when the Rays didn't sign supplemental first-round pick Drew Rasmussen,
it meant that they didn't have the money to sign Lewis. So Lewis returned for
his redshirt junior year at Kentucky and once again proved to be a very
reliable Sunday starter. Lewis' plus split-changeup is a weapon with
excellent deception and late tumble. His fastball is also above-average, as
he'll touch 93-94 mph at his best, and he has a fringe-average slider. Lewis
is long, lean and athletic, but he could use some additional strength. His
velocity tailed off badly in 2017 and he was trying to survive with a
high-80s fastball by the end of the year.
Luke Bartnicki
Bartnicki has an interesting background as an athlete who developed a
reputation as an impressive swimmer before he began to progress on the
baseball field. A 6-foot-3, 210-pound lefthander, Bartnicki brings
physicality to the mound and a broad frame unusual for a swimmer of his
caliber, but one that is perfect for a durable arm on the mound. The Georgia
Tech commit has reached the mid-90s in shorter stints, but mostly sits in the
89-92 mph range, with natural arm-side run and sink on his fastball from a
lower three-quarter arm slot. He has a slider that's been inconsistent this
spring, looking like an above-average pitch with late-breaking action at
times but also backing up and showing well below-average with poor spin and
bite. He's shown solid feel for a low- to mid-80s changeup as well that
should become an average offering. Bartnicki has a slightly unorthodox
delivery that can get out of sync at times but also leads to above-average
deception and helps his fastball play up. The southpaw has a lot of exciting
ingredients, such as his size, strength and athleticism. He could take huge
steps forward as he gains consistency with his secondaries and refines his
delivery.
Austin Bergner
Drafted in the 38th round by the Red Sox out of Florida in 2016, Bergner
opted to honor his commitment to North Carolina. The lanky 6-foot-4,
195-pound righthander ranked No. 165 in the BA 500 and was one of UNC's
blue-chip pitching recruits that year, along with fellow Floridian
righthander Tyler Baum. Bergner pitched primarily out of the bullpen his
freshman year but has started on Saturdays this season. He's been
inconsistent as a starter, posting a 5-2, 4.70 record through 10 starts, but
he has the stuff to dominate in any given outing. Bergner sits comfortably in
the mid-90s, averaging 94 mph with his fastball, and holds that velocity deep
into games. His fastball command has improved over the course of the season,
but he still has spurts where it gets away from him. He complements his
fastball with a plus, low-80s changeup with sharp downward action and a
fringy upper-70s breaking ball that sometimes shows better. While his arsenal
gives him the chance to start, Bergner's effortful, unconventional arm action
scares off some scouts and could ultimately push him to the bullpen at the
next level. Just a sophomore, Bergner has leverage if teams don't meet his
number in the draft, as he could return for another season in UNC's weekend
rotation and attempt to build his stock further.
Jeremy Ydens
The Cardinals made Ydens the 1,216th and final pick of the 2016 draft out of
St. Francis (Mountain View, Calif.) High. He stands to go significantly
higher now as a draft-eligible sophomore out of UCLA. Ydens hit a team-best
.362 with 16 doubles as the Bruins leadoff hitter during the regular season,
and he intrigues evaluators with his athleticism, looseness and feel to hit.
Ydens' swing is a little long, but he is consistently on time, drives the
ball on a line and has an athletic bounce in the box. Ydens has projectable
power but hasn't fully tapped into it yet. He's a fringe-average defender in
the corner outfield--ideally left field--so his ability to get to his power
will be key for the future. Ydens will be expensive to sign because he has
the option of returning to school, but teams view him a talent worthy of a
pick in the top 10 rounds and are considering paying him.
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