[John Sickels] Not a Rookie: Matt Kemp

看板Dodgers作者madboy (歡樂牛棚在躲人)時間17年前 (2008/03/21 17:13)推噓1(1推 0噓 6→)

留言7則, 2人參與討論串1/1

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/3/20/306903/not-a-rookie-matt-kemp 忘記附來源了...科科... Not a Rookie: Matt Kemp Matt Kemp was drafted in the sixth round by the Dodgers in 2003, out of high school in Midwest City, Oklahoma. He was considered very toolsy and athletic, but rather raw, best-known as a basketball player in high school. He hit .270/.298/.346 in 42 games for the Gulf Coast League Dodgers after signing. I didn’t give put him in the 2004 book, but a similar player nowadays would get a Grade C “with higher potential” rating. His strike zone judgment was quite poor in the early going. 是個相當有天份的球員...一開始好球帶控制不佳。 Plate discipline remained a problem in 2004 but it wasn’t enough to prevent him from hitting .288/.330/.499 with 17 homers in 111 games for Columbus in the Sally League. He hit .351 in 11 games for Vero Beach late in the season. He drew 28 walks against 112 strikeouts on the year, but his tools were obvious. I gave him a Grade C+ in the book, impressed with his production but noting that while his upside was great, “the same can be said for innumerable tools burnouts like Reggie Abercrombie.” I advised the Dodgers to give him as much time at Vero Beach in 2005 as possible. 2004年時好球帶控制仍不好，但他仍交出誇張的好成績，好壞球比極爛，但掩蓋不了他優秀的先份。 I don’t know if they read my book or not but that’s exactly what they did in ’05, leaving him in the Florida State League all year. He responded with a .306/.349/.569 mark, with 27 homers and 23 steals. I remained concerned enough with his plate discipline to give him a Grade C+ in the 2006 book. In retrospect I should definitely have given him at least a Grade B. 2005年重複了一個A+球季，交出更誇張的長打和盜壘成績，但選球仍差... Kemp began 2006 in Double-A, hitting .327/.399/.528 in 48 games. He split the rest of the year between Triple-A and the majors, dominating Vegas to a .363/.423/.555 tune but struggling with the strike zone in the Show. He got into 52 major league games, hitting .253/.289/.448 and losing his rookie eligibility. Last year he played 98 games for the Dodgers, hitting .324/.344/.496. He has now played 150 major league games, hitting .312/.344/.496 with 17 homers, 25 walks, and 119 strikeouts in 446 at-bats. 2006年分別在AA、AAA和大聯盟度過，因選球不佳在大聯盟被慘電，接著就是近年在大聯盟的好表現... Plate discipline is still an issue for him, but Kemp is one of those guys who has such tremendous bat speed that it hasn’t hurt him much, even in the majors. He doesn’t have to become a walk machine, of course, and he did reduce his strikeout rate last year, a very good sign. My guess is that major league pitchers will make some adjustments in their approach and we will see his batting average drop, but we’re still talking about a guy who should hit .280-.290 with 25/20 production. At age 23 he has plenty of time to improve beyond that. 好球帶的控管仍是一大問題，但Kemp以超人的揮棒速度彌補，他不會是個保送機器，但好現象是去年他成功減低了三振數，大聯盟的投手可能會改變對他的投球策略而讓他的打率下降，但他仍有爆發力，且僅23歲還有成長空間。 Short-term projections Shandler: .290/.331/.466 James: .322/.365/.508 ZIPS: .303/.348/.483 Weighted Mean PECOTA: .298/.351/.509 Me: .287/.337/.497 I’m one of the “pessimists” and I love the guy.. I just think he needs a year to consolidate. Sickels說他的評價已經算是較悲觀的了... Longer-term, if Kemp develops along a normal curve he’s got a great shot at being an excellent player. Positive PECOTA comps include Derek Bell, Chili Davis, Andre Dawson, Sammy Sosa, Ellis Burks, Ray Lankford, and Ruben Sierra. Cautionary notes are sounded by the presence of Todd Hollandsworth, Pedro Munoz, and Ruben Mateo on the list. Hollandsworth and Munoz were useful role players, and only the injury-busted Mateo is a big red flag. 長期來看一堆好話... Kemp still makes mistakes of inexperience with baserunning and fielding, and his name keeps popping up in trade rumors. I think that’s nuts. This guy has one of the brightest futures in baseball. It would not surprise me to see him emerge as an MVP candidate as soon as 2009. 仍會犯些低級守備和跑壘失誤。名字直出現在兜售名單裡(是個白痴行為)。有光明未來... -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 123.195.188.224