Los Angeles Dodgers Top-15 Prospects of 2009, No's 1 - 5

看板Dodgers作者abc12812時間17年前 (2008/11/18 11:34)推噓0(0推 0噓 0→)

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http://tinyurl.com/652j74 For an overview of the process I use to grade players, the factors I use in determining where a player ranks, and other frequently asked questions, please click here. All grades are subject to change based on any new information I receive before the season starts. If you disagree, you can make your case by contacting me. You can find a full listing of each team's top prospect list in the Top Prospects of 2009 Archive Page. Also, each team will have their Team Page published when their top prospect list becomes available. Team pages include team rosters, stats, payroll and front office information, past Baseball-Intellect articles related to that team, and links to some of the team's best fan sites. We continue with the Los Angeles Dodgers... =============================================================================== 1. Ivan DeJesus Jr. | SS/2b | B - R | AA Jacksonville | Age - 22 | Drafted - Round 2, 2005 Contact - 55 Now | 60 Future Power - 30 | 35 Discipline - 60 | 60 Speed - 50 | 50 Defense - 45 | 50 Arm - 45 | 50 Instincts - 60 | 60 Final Grade - B You can replace any of the Dodgers' top-3 prospects in whatever order you want. All are different types of players with different sets of strengths and weakness but the talent level of all three is roughly similar. Hitting DeJesus has an extremely advanced approach at the plate. His batting eye and plate discipline are excellent and has the hand-eye coordination to make consistent, hard contact all over the field. The biggest weakness for DeJesus is his power. It mildly improved last year though it is worth pointing out that Jacksonville is somewhat of a pitcher's park. There ultimately is not a lot of projection to DeJesus. He's short and not a very physical player so there is certainly a cap on his upside. He also hits a lot of ground balls, which will also limit his power output. One of the most impressive attributes about DeJesus is his ability to adjust--from pitch-to-pitch and AB-to-AB....he has an excellent feel for the game and a high baseball IQ. The Swing Quick hands, very quick bat...very little length and he takes a short path to the ball. Lets the ball travel deep into zone, but power is limited because of his approach, his loading process, and his lack of physical strength. Defense - DeJesus has been regarded as a good defender, but some feel he would best play at second base. He made a lot of errors last season and many were of the throwing variety. His range is solid and his instincts help his defense play up at either position. De Jesus' speed is good, but not elite One Last Thing - it's well worth pointing out that apparently DeJesus' play has not been up to par in the AFL this year, both in numbers and effort. Ketih Law made a blog post indicating a lack of effort (he wasn't running out ground balls) and John Sickels added more fuel to the fire by reporting mistakes made by DeJesus that were out of character, and heard from various scouts that questioned his work ethic. Of course this plants a few seeds of doubt into my mind, but not enough to shake up my rankings. Best Case Outcome - A top-10 player at shortstop or second base More Likely Outcome - Average player at shortstop or second base. Worst case is he turns into a utility player =============================================================================== 2. James McDonald | RHP | AA Jacksonville | Age - 24 | Drafted - Round 11, 2004 Fastball - 45 Now | 50 Future Curveball - 60 | 60 Change-Up - 45 | 50 Control - 50 | 55 Command - 50 | 50 Pitchability - 45 | 50 Final Grade - B Body Type - long and lanky...doesn't offer a lot of projection, but a very good athlete. Stuff Fastball - might be his worst pitch...velocity has increased since 06', but still clocks in around 89 - 92, occasionally touching 93. He commands the pitch well and it does have some late movement...looks a bit faster than it actually is Curveball - his best pitch...big break--a true 12-to-6 curveball. Even better is that he commands the pitch well. He can add or subtract to it as he pleases, throwing it sometimes in the high-60's all the way up to the mid-70's. The pitch comes out of his hand without too much of a noticeable bump, which keeps hitters from picking up the pitch at release. You can see the pitch below: Change-Up - the pitch has good fade and he does a solid job of maintaining his arm speed...it needs more consistency. Mechanics Drifts through his balance point, building up momentum, but his tempo is still pretty slow (around 28 frames). He's pretty upright during his wind-up and doesn't really get a great deal of drive heading toward home plate. Has a late hand break and a really quick arm...late shoulder rotation and excellent front side mechanics--see how his glove firms up to prevent himself from flying open? McDonald possesses a high 3/4 release point and the release point is the same for each pitch, which makes it difficult for batters to pick up the ball out of his hand. By the Numbers - McDonald's curveball showed up in his K%--30% in 135 innings split between A+ Inland Empire and Double-A Jacksonville in 2007. In 119 innings in Jacksonville this season, the K% dropped to 23%--pretty good, but by no means dominant. Control has been very solid and steady his entire career, though never spectacular. McDonald is an extreme fly ball ball pitcher. This might be good for limiting the number of base hits he gives up, but he will almost assuredly give up his fair share of home runs. While he does lack true pitching experience because of his back-and-forth between hitting and pitching, he still hasn't been all that young for his level. Best Case Outcome - No. 3 starter More Likely Outcome - No. 4 starter...there isn't much difference between his upside and mid-level projection. Worst case scenario is he ends up a set-up man out of the bullpen. =============================================================================== 3. Andrew Lambo | LF/1b | B - L | Single-A Great Lakes | Age - 20 | Drafted - Round 4, 2007 Contact - 40 Now | 45 Future Power - 45 | 55 Discipline - 40 | 45 Speed - 40 | 40 Defense - 40 | 45 Arm - 45 | 45 Instincts - 45 | 55 Final Grade - B I completed a report on Lambo back in May, which you can see here. Since that time, not much has changed. He was up and down from June through August. His June and July months were very solid, but he tanked in August at Single-A Great Lakes. Lambo crushed Double-A pitching, but it was only for 36 ABs. Yes, the plate discipline is concerning, but he's still very young for his level and he possesses a great deal of raw talent. It seems his past off-field issues are behind him as well. Defensively, Lambo only profiles as average. His arm is average and his range is iffy because he possesses below average speed. Lambo has the most upside of anybody in the top-3, but he's also the riskiest prospect. Hurting his value is the fact that he doesn't player a premium defensive position, which is why he's No. 3 on this list. Best Case Outcome - above average offensive left fielder with average defense More Likely Outcome - average left fielder. Worst case is he becomes a back-up at both corner OF spots and first base. =============================================================================== 4. Scott Elbert | LHP | AA Jacksonville | Age - 23 | Drafted - Round 1 (17), 2004 Fastball - 60 Now | 60 Future Slider - 60 | 65 Change-Up - 35 | 40 Control - 30 | 35 Command - 35 | 40 Pitchability - 45 | 50 Final Grade - B- Body Type - Athletic and muscular Stuff Fastball - when he returned from injury, his fastball was mostly clocked between 88 - 90 mph, but he's normally between 92 and 94. He will touch 96 at times. Command of the pitch is inconsistent. Curveball - power variety... very sharp bite...thrown between 80 and 82 mph, but looks harder. He has a difficulty throwing the pitch for strikes, but it is lethal on left handed hitters. Change-Up - the pitch has the makings of being an average pitch, but he doesn't throw it often. The pitch has good fade and he does a pretty good job of maintaining his arm speed. But once again, command of the pitch is an issue. Mechanics Elbert's mechanics are fast and aggressive--he throws with the intent to throw hard. He can be too fast for his own good. His body gets so far out in front, he doesn't give his arm enough time to go through its progressions. His arm is so quick, he can sometimes make up for this timing problem, but when he doesn't, his pitches miss the strike zone and his curveball ends up bouncing. By the Numbers Elbert's biggest strength is his ability to miss bats. His pitches have so much movement, when hitters aren't swinging through his pitches, they're missing the sweet part of the bat, meaning he's difficult to center the ball against. His BABIP against rates have always been well below what is considered average for even a top-level prospect. Helping him keep those BABIP rates low is his extreme fly ball tendencies but you can also expect his HR rate to be higher. Rotation or Bullpen? Elbert has spent his entire career as a starter, but he was sent to the bullpen upon returning from injury. There isn't a question Elbert has top of the rotation stuff--at least when you consider his best two pitches--but he has shown me nothing to indicate he will ever have enough control to last as a major league starter. I'm not quite sure what the Dodgers' plans are with Elbert at the moment. Best Case Outcome - top flight lefty out of the bullpen that is shuts down left handed hitters More Likely Outcome - left handed specialist that struggles with his control enough to not make him an elite-level reliever =============================================================================== 5. Ethan Martin | RHP | N/A | Age - 18 | Drafted - Round 1 (15), 2008 Fastball - 50 Now | 60 Future Curveball - 40 | 55 Change-Up - 35 | 45 Control - 40 | 50 Command - 40 | 50 Pitchability - 30 | 40 Final Grade - B- Body Type - athletic and projectable Scouting Report Martin is very much a mystery to me. The Dodgers chose Martin to be a pitcher though I actually liked his potential as a hitter more. Martin falls into this spot because he does have considerable upside from the reports I've read. The draft video of Martin showed him with decent stuff, but nothing electric nor did it give me much of a glimpse of his breaking ball. Martin's fastball has been clocked between 93 and 95, which leads me to believe the draft video was prior to Martin increasing his fastball velocity and therefore not exactly representative of what Martin has to offer. Mechanically, Martin's motion is smooth and he generally repeats it well though his release point is inconsistent. You can project his control out to about major league average, but he isn't consistent right now, especially when throwing his breaking ball, which is a power-type curve that has the bottom fall out of it before reaching home plate. Best Case Outcome - it's almost impossible to project out Martin's best case outcome at this point, but if I had to say, it would be a No. 2 starter More Likely Outcome - it's even harder to project out his most likely outcome, but back of the rotation starter or a role in the bullpen is probably the more likely outcome -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.112.7.59