[情報] Athlon Baseball 2009 Dodgers Preview
Athlon Baseball 2009 Los Angeles Dodgers Preview
As a less-than-overwhelming Dodgers team headed to its first spring training at
its new facility in Glendale, Ariz., there was one thing that hadn’t changed
much since last fall’s five-game loss to Philadelphia in the National League
Championship Series. The Dodgers’ best weapon is still the fact that they play
in the NL West. While this appears to be pretty much the same team it was last
year — minus one enigmatic slugger — so do the other four clubs in the
division, which L.A. won by two games last year. Given that the Dodgers’
promising stable of young players is now a year older and a little more
battle-tested, there is little reason to believe they can’t contend again. The
one thing the Dodgers hope to have that they didn’t have much last year will
be a healthy Rafael Furcal at the top of the lineup. They also have a more
experienced Chad Billingsley at the front of the rotation.
Rotation
Billingsley figures to get the ball again on Opening Day, if only because the
Dodgers don’t appear to have a better candidate. Gone is Brad Penny, the
two-time All-Star who wore out his welcome last season. Also gone is Derek
Lowe, the groundball machine who left as a free agent. The No. 2 starter likely
will be Hiroki Kuroda, who went 9–10 as a 33-year-old rookie. Next in line are
highly touted, second-year lefty Clayton Kershaw and Randy Wolf, signed as a
free agent. Wolf started 18 games for the Dodgers in 2007 before splitting last
season between the Padres and Astros. Houston won 10 of his 12 starts down the
stretch last season as the Astros played themselves back into the playoff hunt.
Jason Schmidt is on track to finally pitch again this season, though no one in
the organization is overly optimistic about his healthy return. The fifth spot
could go to rookie James McDonald, who pitched out of the bullpen in his big
league debut last fall, or newly acquired Claudio Vargas. The loser of that
battle will head to the bullpen.
Bullpen
The Dodgers will head into spring training without a definitive closer,
although the job figures to be Jonathan Broxton’s to lose. Takashi Saito, who
had the role the past three seasons, was non-tendered because the club didn’t
want to go to arbitration with him. And even if he ends up back on the roster,
there is no guarantee he will return to the back end. Lefthander Hong-Chih Kuo
is another strong candidate, and given Broxton’s past inconsistency as the
closer, it is possible that manager Joe Torre could use both Broxton and Kuo in
the role. The rest of the pen figures to consist of whoever is left standing
after a spring training free-for-all, although Ramon Troncoso and Cory Wade are
probably in good shape after strong rookie seasons. Lefty Eric Stults is
another candidate for a bullpen spot, although he also could push for a role in
the rotation.
Middle infield
Blake DeWitt was supposed to start the 2008 season in Double-A, but he ended up
— partly through attrition — as the Dodgers’ starting third baseman on
Opening Day. He hit a respectable .264 in 117 games and will now take over at
second base for the departed Jeff Kent. Furcal, a superb defensive shortstop
and one of the best leadoff men in the league, is back at short after the
Dodgers made a last-ditch effort to re-sign him when it appeared he was headed
back to Atlanta. The Dodgers also have added veteran infielder Mark Loretta,
who will take over the supersub role that Nomar Garciaparra filled last year.
Loretta, a right-handed hitter, also could platoon with the lefty-hitting
DeWitt at second base.
Corners
James Loney returns at first base, where he figures to be fixture for years to
come. His first full season in the majors was highlighted by a grand slam in
Game 1 of the Divisional Playoff Series win over the Cubs. Loney sports a .303
career average and is already one of the best defensive first basemen in the
league. Casey Blake, acquired just before the trading deadline last summer,
re-signed with the club for three years and $17.5 million after he failed to
generate much interest on the free agent market. Blake hit just .251 after the
trade, but his 10 home runs and 23 RBIs were critical to the Dodgers’
late-season push to the division title. He also became a leader in the
clubhouse.
Outfield
The Dodgers made what appeared to be a textbook addition-by-subtraction when
they were able to renegotiate Andruw Jones’ albatross of a contract, clearing
the way for his exit from the club a year ahead of schedule. A tremendous
disappointment, Jones hit .158 with three homers and only 14 RBIs last season.
Barring any moves during spring training, Juan Pierre will take over in left
with Matt Kemp in center and Andre Ethier in right. Having Pierre and Rafael
Furcal at the top of the order will create an interesting dynamic for a Dodgers
’ offense that struggled to score runs last year until the arrival of Manny
Ramirez in late July.
Catching
Russell Martin remains one of the most durable catchers in the game, and the
two-time All-Star has shown no signs of slowing down. But the Dodgers would
like to see him catch less often, even if it means taking his bat out of the
lineup more frequently. The backup role will go to Brad Ausmus, signed in the
offseason.
Bench
Loretta was signed mostly to provide clubhouse leadership, but he also brings a
solid bat that Torre could find useful in the late innings. He hit .280 for
Houston last year and also is a former All-Star. The utility spots figured to
go to Tony Abreu and Chin-lung Hu, now that Angel Berroa has signed with the
Yankees. Hu has been a highly touted prospect in the Dodgers’ system for
several years because of his defensive ability, but he has struggled in his
brief visits to the majors. A big question now that the Dodgers have committed
to Furcal through at least 2011 is what happens with top shortstop prospect
Ivan De Jesus Jr., who is thought to be only a year away.
Management
General manager Ned Colletti appeared to be hanging by the thinnest of threads
at midseason last year, the result of a handful of bad contracts and the fact
the Dodgers couldn’t seem to take charge in baseball’s weakest division. But
that all changed after the acquisitions of Blake and Ramirez turned the Dodgers
’ season around and led to the club’s first National League Championship
Series berth since 1988. Torre is a future Hall of Fame manager, if not a Hall
of Fame player — the former MVP came up short on the veterans’ committee
ballot yet again in December — and he managed to get the most out of a
notoriously fractured clubhouse last year. He is simply among the best in the
business.
Final analysis
The Dodgers are far from a complete team. But in the sad-sack National League
West, they clearly have enough to contend. Much will depend on the continued
development of their younger players, especially Billingsley and Kershaw in the
rotation and Kemp, Loney and Ethier in the everyday lineup. A lot also will
depend on Furcal’s ability to stay healthy. The Dodgers’ offensive catalyst
missed 126 games last year with a back injury that required surgery, and he was
hampered throughout 2007 by an ankle injury he suffered in spring training.
Beyond the Boxscore
Comeback kids The Dodgers were seven games back in the National League West
standings on April 25, matching the largest deficit the franchise ever overcame
to win a division or pennant. The 1966 Dodgers were seven games back on May 13
and finished 95–67, winning the NL pennant by 1.5 games over second-place San
Francisco.
Prime time Chad For all that was made of his National League Championship
Series implosion and failure to retaliate when several of his teammates were
brushed back by the Phillies’ Brett Myers, Chad Billingsley proved himself
down the stretch to be ready for prime time. The third-year righthander went 7–
1 over his final 12 regular-season starts, and he leads all Dodgers pitchers
with 28 victories over the past two seasons.
Set up or close? While manager Joe Torre and pitching coach Rick Honeycutt
wrestle this spring over whether to use fireballing Jonathan Broxton as their
closer or eighth-inning setup man, perhaps they should consider using him as
both. Last year, Broxton made 12 appearances in which he pitched more than one
inning. The Dodgers won all 12 of those games. Although it is unheard of these
days to routinely ask a closer to pitch more than one inning, especially one
who throws as hard as Broxton, this does give Torre occasional late-inning
flexibility that could come in handy in a tight game.
Mr. September The knock against Andre Ethier in his first two big league
seasons was a perceived lack of durability, a notion that was supported by the
fact he hit .198 in the month of September during that period. Last year,
though, Ethier led all major league hitters with a .462 average in September,
nine points better than the Angels’ Mike Napoli.
Missing Rafael After Rafael Furcal went down with a back injury in early May,
the Dodgers lost 24 of their next 37 games. Prior to the injury, he was batting
.366 and was among the league leaders in almost every offensive category.
Farm System
2008 Top Draft Pick — Ethan Martin, who spurned a football scholarship to
Clemson to sign with the Dodgers, suffered a knee injury during pitchers’
fielding drills in the Gulf Coast League and wound up not appearing in a
single game. But he was ready to go by the start of the Instructional League
season and pitched about a dozen innings, during which he showed a fastball
that touched 95 mph and the makings of a good breaking ball. He won’t turn 20
until June and is still a bit raw. There are tentative plans to send him to
Rookie-level Ogden to begin the season, but if he has a solid spring, Martin
could wind up as high as low Single-A Great Lakes in the Midwest League.
2007 Top Pick — Chris Withrow, RHP, Midland Christian (Texas) High School
Made only four late-season appearances at Single-A Inland Empire after
overcoming an injury.
2006 Top Pick — Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Highland Park (Texas) High School
Already in the majors and already a lock to make the starting rotation.
2005 Top Pick — Luke Hochevar, RHP, University of Tennessee
Never signed. Re-entered the draft and signed with Kansas City as the No. 1
overall pick.
2004 Top Pick — Scott Elbert, LHP, Seneca (Mo.) High School
After missing most of 2007 with a shoulder injury, finally made his big league
debut in ’08.
2003 Top Pick — Chad Billingsley, RHP, Defiance (Ohio) High School
Has taken over the No. 1 spot in the rotation in his third major league season.
Other Prospects (age on Opening Day)
SS Ivan De Jesus Jr. (21)
Long hailed as the organization’s shortstop of the future, he hit .324 at
Double-A Jacksonville and posted a .419 OBP.
OF Andrew Lambo (20)
Made a late-season leapfrog from low Single-A to Double-A Jacksonville, where
he hit .389 with three homers in eight games.
RHP Josh Lindblom (21)
The 2008 second-round pick out of Purdue jumped up to Double-A by the end of
the season.
C Lucas May (24)
Probably played himself out of a September call-up when he batted .230 at
Jacksonville, and he struggled even more in the AFL.
OF Xavier Paul (24)
Career blossomed in 2008 at Triple-A Las Vegas, where he batted .316 with 28
doubles.
Statistician
13 >> Consecutive seasons in which Joe Torre-managed clubs have reached the
playoffs, one short of the all-time record held by Atlanta’s
Bobby Cox.
13 >> Consecutive seasons in which the Dodgers have surpassed three million
in paid attendance.
61 >> Springs in which the Dodgers trained in Vero Beach, Fla., a streak
that finally will end this year when the club shares a new complex
in Glendale, Ariz., with the Chicago White Sox.
8 >> Different spots in the order in which All-Star catcher Russell Martin
hit last year. The Dodgers won 15 of 19 games in which he led off.
$27.5 >> Amount, in millions, the Dodgers have paid righthander Jason Schmidt
over the first two seasons of his current, three-year contract,
during which Schmidt has made a total of six starts.
3 >> Times Dodgers first baseman James Loney has driven in at least five
runs in a single game at Colorado’s Coors Field.
4 >> Complete game shutouts by Dodgers pitchers last season, including two
by rookie Hiroki Kuroda.
Difference Maker
Dodgers officials don’t expect newly signed, veteran infielder Mark Loretta to
bat .300 or hit 20 home runs. They don’t even expect him to play all that
much. But what they found perhaps most enticing about the Southern California
native is what he brings to a clubhouse that should have a dramatically
different personality this year. Gone are the perpetually sour Jeff Kent; Brad
Penny, who at times seemed to be focused on everything but baseball; and Derek
Lowe, a happy-go-lucky sort who never seemed quite as comfortable in Los
Angeles as he had been in Boston. Loretta represents something of a 180-degree
turn, the type of leader this team has been seeking since Robin Ventura and
Jose Lima departed after the 2004 season.
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