[閒聊] Re-rank the O-Rank

看板FBaseball (Fantasy Baseball)作者AboveTheRim (尚未通過身分認證 )時間15年前 (2009/02/19 21:41)推噓11(11推 0噓 6→)

留言17則, 11人參與討論串1/1

之前小弟一直很好奇YAHOO預設的O-rank 不知道是依據何種ranking methodology來排的 (可能是按去年Rank 再加上FB那些專家的主觀微調吧) 而YAHOO的Ranking methodolody似乎也沒公佈搞得好像黑箱作業一樣所以不少新手會在中後段不知道要選誰的時候就會直接參考O-rank 當然老手往往就是可以從這些地方"偷"到被低估的選手剛好本身是學統計的運用簡單的工具自創了一個rank給版眾參考順便拋磚引玉看能不能激發更多數量化方式的評估選手方法 http://www.badongo.com/file/13465567 -- 先貼top 100 (U for under-rated, O for over-rated in O-Rank) Player Pos O-Rank R-Rank evaluation Álex Rodríguez (NYY - 3B) 2 1 Hanley Ramírez (Fla - SS) 1 2 David Wright (NYM - 3B) 5 3 Matt Holliday (Oak - OF) 36 4 U+ Albert Pujols (StL - 1B) 3 5 Lance Berkman (Hou - 1B) 18 6 Chase Utley (Phi - 2B) 22 7 U José Reyes (NYM - SS) 4 8 CC Sabathia (NYY - SP) 27 9 U Carlos Beltrán (NYM - OF) 19 10 Mariano Rivera (NYY - RP) 74 11 U+ Manny Ramírez (LAD - OF) NA 29 12 U Johan Santana (NYM - SP) 17 13 Ryan Howard (Phi - 1B) 10 14 J.Papelbon (Bos - RP) 50 15 U+ Ryan Dempster (ChC - SP) 149 16 U+ Russell Martin (LAD - C,3B) 41 17 U Grady Sizemore (Cle - OF) 6 18 Ryan Braun (Mil - OF) 8 19 Roy Halladay (Tor - SP) 58 20 U+ Miguel Cabrera (Det - 1B,3B) 7 21 O Chipper Jones (Atl - 3B) 65 22 U+ Tim Lincecum (SF - SP) 21 23 Jimmy Rollins (Phi - SS) 12 24 Magglio Ordóñe (Det - OF) 62 25 U+ Brandon Webb (Ari - SP) 46 26 U Joe Nathan (Min - RP) 72 27 U+ Josh Hamilton (Tex - OF) 9 28 O Mark Teixeira (NYY - 1B) 13 29 O Bobby Abreu (LAA - OF) 94 30 U+ Jake Peavy (SD - SP) 48 31 U Dustin Pedroia (Bos - 2B) 24 32 F.Rodrígu z (NYM - RP) 79 33 U+ Rich Harden (ChC - SP) 96 34 U+ Cole Hamels (Phi - SP) 45 35 Dan Haren (Ari - SP) 59 36 U José Valverde (Hou - RP) 126 37 U+ Nick Markakis (Bal - OF) 35 38 Brian Roberts (Bal - 2B) 38 39 Joakim Soria (KC - RP) 99 40 U+ Ian Kinsler (Tex - 2B) DL 11 41 O+ Carlos Lee (Hou - OF) 26 42 O Prince Fielder (Mil - 1B) 20 43 O Vlad. Guerrero (LAA - OF) 32 44 Ichiro Suzuki (Sea - OF) 34 45 Cliff Lee (Cle - SP) 91 46 U+ Brandon Phillips(Cin - 2B) DL 25 47 O Ryan Ludwick (StL - OF) 83 48 U+ Álex Ríos (Tor - OF) 43 49 Kevin Youkilis (Bos - 1B,3B) 40 50 Adrián Gonzále (SD - 1B) 49 51 C.Granderson (Det - OF) 42 52 Aramis Ramírez (ChC - 3B) 39 53 O Jose Arredondo (LAA - RP) 305 54 U+ Brian McCann (Atl - C) 44 55 Takashi Saito (Bos - RP) 303 56 U+ Ricky Nolasco (Fla - SP) 136 57 U+ Brad Lidge (Phi - RP) 81 58 U Nate McLouth (Pit - OF) 55 59 Alfonso Soriano (ChC - OF) 16 60 O+ Aubrey Huff (Bal - 1B,3B) 77 61 U Justin Morneau (Min - 1B) 30 62 O+ Jason Bay (Bos - OF) 31 63 O+ Joe Mauer (Min - C) 52 64 Dan Uggla (Fla - 2B) 71 65 Josh Beckett (Bos - SP) 75 66 Kelvim Escobar (LAA - SP) DL 314 67 U+ Torii Hunter (LAA - OF) 113 68 U+ Matt Kemp (LAD - OF) 37 69 O+ Derrek Lee (ChC - 1B) 95 70 U+ J.J. Putz (NYM - RP) 318 71 U+ Joey Devine (Oak - RP) 237 72 U+ Roy Oswalt (Hou - SP) 98 73 U+ Carlos Mármol (ChC - RP) 121 74 U+ John Smoltz (Bos - SP) 231 75 U+ Kerry Wood (Cle - RP) 140 76 U+ Johnny Damon (NYY - OF) 116 77 U+ Ted Lilly (ChC - SP) 190 78 U+ James Shields (TB - SP) 97 79 U Edinson Vólquez (Cin - SP) 117 80 U+ A.J. Burnett (NYY - SP) 105 81 U Jermaine Dye (CWS - OF) 76 82 Geovany Soto (ChC - C) 54 83 O+ Chad Billingsley(LAD - SP) 73 84 Michael Young (Tex - SS) 80 85 Adam Dunn (Was - 1B,OF) 66 86 O Shane Victorino (Phi - OF) 47 87 O+ Raúl Ibañez (Phi - OF) 122 88 U+ B.J. Upton (TB - OF) 14 89 O+ Jhonny Peralta (Cle - SS) 109 90 U Daisuke Matsuzaka(Bos - SP) 114 91 U Garrett Atkins (Col - 1B,3B) 64 92 O+ Bobby Jenks (CWS - RP) 110 93 U Carlos Delgado (NYM - 1B) 119 94 U+ Francisco Cordero(Cin - RP) 144 95 U+ Billy Wagner (NYM - RP) 302 96 U+ Justin Duchscherer(Oak - SP) 211 97 U+ Corey Hart (Mil - OF) 56 98 O+ John Lackey (LAA - SP) 85 99 O Derek Jeter (NYY - SS) 89 100 -- top 100中看起來比較奇怪的是57 Jose Arredondo 什麼RP咖竟然可以排上前100 查看原始數據去年竟然有10W 像這種都是中繼撿到的勝投而且取樣又只有2年就當作是統計上的誤差吧 orz -- 下一步: 跑個層級貝氏來模擬預測09年成績好了 (如果有時間整理數據的話 orz) -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 114.43.198.48