[閒聊] 經濟學人：不同的球賽(正文)

看板FCBarcelona作者Ivanov時間11年前 (2015/01/06 04:36)推噓5(5推 0噓 0→)

留言5則, 5人參與討論串1/1

原文連結 http://tinyurl.com/lclh2d4 (給直接跳到這篇的讀者) THERE are many broad footballing styles. “Long-ball”—in which the midfield is bypassed as defenders shunt the ball towards a muscular striker—is particularly associated with some English sides. “Catenaccio”, whereby a team relies on a strong defence to absorb pressure before launching a counter-attack, is a label often applied to Italians. The “pressing game”, which requires teams to harry opponents high up the field, now seems to be the tactic de jour throughout much of Europe. 這世界上有很多對於足球特色的大分類方向。 "長球": 略過中場，透過防守球員直接將球送給半獸人前鋒。常常被認為是一些英國球隊的特色 "Catenaccio": 球隊再找到好的防守反擊機會前，倚賴堅強的防守來吸收對方的壓迫。通常是義大利球隊的特色標籤 "壓迫足球": 不斷的逼迫催促對手，似乎現在是多數歐洲球隊的策略主流 (註: de jour代表 for the day，可以用在本日菜單這種，或者是一段時間內的主流) But few individual teams can boast a style of play so distinct that a term must be coined to describe it and it only. The Tottenham Hotspur side which won the English league in 1950-51 is alone in being described as the team of “push and run”. Talk about “total football” and everyone will know you are referring to the Ajax side that dominated Europe in the early 1970s (or, perhaps, the Dutch national side of that era which included many players brought through the Ajax team). And, in the modern game, there is Barcelona and “tiki taka”. 然而，很少球隊可以把單把一項特色做到很好，使得大家想到這個球隊只與這項特色連結 (少數的例子比如) 贏下50-51年賽季的熱刺被描述成 "打帶跑" (Push and Run)球隊。說到"全能足球"，大家都知道你在說1970年代主宰歐洲足球的阿賈克斯 (或是當時的荷蘭國家隊，在陣中有多名阿賈克斯球員)。在現代比賽中，我們有巴薩隆納跟Tiki-Taka這樣球隊與戰術特色的連結 Defining a unique football style can be like defining obscenity—you know it when you see it. But it is difficult to quantify exactly how different a team such as Barcelona is compared with its peers. Goals are the currency of football, but they tell us little about teams’ modi operandi. People might come up with a broad shorthand—that, in the case of tiki taka for example, maintaining possession of the ball is the defining characteristic. This is certainly true: Barcelona went an incredible 317 consecutive games in which they had more than 50% possession. However, they aren't unique in trying to accomplish this, they are merely better at it. 定義一項"與眾不同"的足球風格有點像是自我腦補(Obscenity是意淫的意思太難翻了) 你在球場上看到，你知道它正在發生。但是很難透過數據化來展現到底這個球隊的戰法跟別人到底有甚麼不同。進球才是硬道理，然而進球並沒有告訴我們太多球隊的 "操作手法" 人們可能開始使用一些簡單的紀錄。舉例來說: 辨別Tiki-Taka，維持控球成為一種指標性特色。這當然沒錯: 巴薩隆納締造了連續317比賽有超過50%的控球率。但是，(單就控球率來說)他們並不獨特，他們只是做得更好一些而已。 So is it possible to define tiki taka through statistics? Laszlo Gyarmati of the Qatar Computing Research Institute and two colleagues have made a promising start. The group conducted an analysis of the passing patterns of every team in Europe’s five biggest leagues—England, Spain, Germany, France and Italy—during the 2012-13 season. One of their tools was principal component analysis, a technique which measures the relative influence of factors within a set of data, rather than just plotting those data on standard axes. The resulting paper was presented at the KDD Workshop on Large-Scale Sports Analytics. 那到底可不可透過統計來定義tiki-taka呢？卡達電算研究中心的Laszlo Gyarmati 做出了一項有前景的先導研究。他的研究團隊，分析2012-13賽季，歐洲五大聯賽(英西德法義)各隊的傳球型態。他們的其中一項研究工具為主成分分析(PCA: 詳見前言)， (PCA是)在一組資料中，衡量相對重要性因素的一種工具。這樣的技巧使得圖表部僅僅只是把資料點放在一般的座標軸上。研究報告發表在........ In a three-pass sequence there are five possible combinations. When he receives a pass, a player can either return the ball whence it came or move it to a different member of his side. That player can then pass it back to either of the two people who have already been involved in the move or to someone new. These strings of passes can be represented as: ABAB, ABAC, ABCA, ABCB and ABCD. For longer periods of possession, component three-pass sequences were analysed (in a four-pass move, for example, there are two separate strings of three passes). 在三次傳球的次序下，可以有五種不同的組合。當一個球員接到隊友傳來的球，他可以回敲，或者是把求挪給在另外一側的隊友。那位隊友可以把球回傳給之前兩位參與推進的任何一人，或者是把求再傳給另外一位隊友。這些傳球的組合簡化成 ABAB, ABAC, ABCA, ABCD. 如果超過三傳，那麼研究人員就會把他們拆成兩個三傳步驟。比如說，如果是四次傳球就會變成前三傳跟後三傳兩個不同的三傳步驟) (舉例: ABABC: 就會變成 ABAB 跟 BABC兩組) As the chart above shows, when viewed in this way, all teams across Europe's five big leagues cluster around a remarkably similar style; differences between them can be plotted, but there are no outliers. Except one. Of the 98 sides (and over 1m passes) that were studied, Barcelona, the researchers found, really do have a style all of their own. They are characterised by a much greater propensity to play ABAC and ABCB passing sequences, as well as ABAB (a trait they share with more teams). In other words, having passed the ball, a player is very likely to receive it back straight away. 如上圖所示，如果透過PCA來分析，幾乎所有的歐陸五大聯盟的球隊都"聚"有相似的特徵 (我故意用"聚"反映cluster) 分布圖上他們的差異可以看得出來，但是沒有離群值。除了一家球隊: 巴薩隆納。在98隊，超過一公尺的傳球分析中，巴薩隆納的確有他們自己的特色。他們更傾向使用ABAC和ABCB傳球，再來就是ABAB(不過這點是更多隊使用) 換句話說，球員把球傳出去之後，他們會期待他們又馬上得到回傳球。 Man on! This puts the onus on the player passing the ball, who is likely to have an opponent challenging him, then to move quickly so as to take the return. Logic also strongly suggests it means prioritising possession over a quick, forward progression, as the action occurs across a smaller area (although this is not explicitly proved by the study). 這讓傳球的球員同時也肩負更多責任。傳球球員通常已經有人盯著，所以把球傳出之後他們也得跑動，(甩開盯防球員) 已取得回傳球。這樣的邏輯也隱含，相較於向前推進，他們更重是持球。因為這樣的作為大部分發生在比較小的區域。(雖然研究結果沒有明顯表示出這點) Dr Gyarmati foresees powerful practical applications for this method. The most promising area is probably player recruitment. Armed with a quantitative measure of playing style, teams could break down how well potential acqusitions are likely to fit in. That would enable them to identify players who would be particularly well-suited to join their existing roster, and thus likely to make a contribution in excess of their pay cheques. Gyarmati博士預期這研究方法有強大的實務應用空間。最有前景的可能在球員採購上。透過數據呈獻的特色，球隊可以從細部分析潛在購買的球員是否能夠融入球隊。這項工具辨別可以配合球隊現有名單的球員，可以讓球隊買到物超所值的球員。 It also suggests, at least in this instance, that being an outlier works. The Barcelona side of tiki taka was the most successful of its age, winning three Champions League titles since 2006 and Spain's La Liga four times in five seasons. But in the past couple of years, the pack has begun to catch up. Indeed, Bayern Munich, the side that many now consider the most likely to take Barcelona's mantle, play in a way clearly influenced by tiki taka—not least because they poached the Barcelona manager most associated with the style, Pep Guardiola. Just as in business, the only thing harder than coming up with a breakthrough innovation is keeping it out of the hands of the competition. 這也同時顯示，至少透過這項研究結果，當個離群值是是有意義的。巴薩隆納的Tiki-Taka是同時期最成功的足球戰略: 從2006年以來拿下3座歐冠，五個賽季中拿下4次聯賽冠軍。但在過去幾年，其他人正急起直追。拜仁慕尼黑目前是最有可能拿下巴薩的風采。他們透過挖角巴薩的教練Pep Guardiola，採取受Tiki-Taka影響的球風。就像商場：比突破性創新更困難的，是將這項創新持有在自己手裡而不被競爭者拿到。 -- http://losimprevisibles.blogspot.com http://www.facebook.com/ThoseUnpredictable 在歐洲看著錢跟數字滾來滾去有甚麼是說得準的呢? -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 213.34.69.213 ※ 文章網址: http://www.ptt.cc/bbs/FCBarcelona/M.1420490160.A.164.html ※ 編輯: Ivanov (213.34.69.213), 01/06/2015 04:39:19