[外電] Some top picks bring lotto luck
Some top picks bring lotto luck
By SEKOU SMITH
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Published on: 05/22/06
Representatives from 14 NBA teams — the Hawks included — will
sit nervously in a New Jersey television studio tonight hoping
they will win the NBA's version of the golden ticket.
That's right, the NBA draft lottery will sort itself out in the
midst of ping-pong balls and sweaty palms. But does simply winning
the top overall pick in next month's draft ensure instant saving
from the league's scrap heap?
Ask the Cleveland Cavaliers and the answer will be a resounding
YES — as in LeBron James, the top overall pick in 2003. King
James and his gang were minutes away from the most stunning upset
of what has turned out to be a fabulous NBA playoffs, up 3-2 on
the heavily favored Detroit Pistons before losing two in a row
and being bounced in Game 7 Sunday.
Ask the Washington Wizards and the answer would be a resounding
NO — as in Kwame Brown, the top overall pick in the 2001 draft.
Brown also made the playoffs this year, but with the Los Angeles
Lakers, his second team in five NBA seasons. The first high school
player taken with the No. 1 pick, the former Glynn Academy star
has been a colossal disappointment and made nowhere near the
impact player of several players who were taken after him (Pau
Gasol, Richard Jefferson, etc.).
That's why it's equally significant to note when a team wins the
No. 1 overall pick. Some years a future Hall of Famer such as Tim
Duncan will emerge as the No. 1 pick. And some years a future
Hall of Role Player such as Joe Smith will emerge as the No. 1
pick.
This year's draft class appears to be missing a player the
caliber of Duncan, though it's hard to tell now if a transcendent
talent is floating around the draft pool.
Toronto's Bryan Colangelo, the NBA's Executive of the Year a year
ago, confirmed as much to reporters at Air Canada Centre last week.
"It's a deep draft," he said. "At the top, there are quite a few
players that are worthwhile additions to any club, [but] in terms
of one star — one LeBron James, Shaquille O'Neal, Tim Duncan
type of pick — it probably doesn't exist at this point."
The five best No. 1 picks of the lottery era (1985-present):
1. Tim Duncan, 1997, San Antonio — The good karma in San Antonio
knows no bounds. The other time the Spurs won the No. 1 pick was
1987, when they nabbed another 7-foot future Hall of Famer, David
Robinson. Only Shaquille O'Neal can match Duncan's championship
total (three), but all of Shaq's titles came with a team other
than the one that drafted him. Duncan's impact has sustained the
Spurs for the past decade.
2. Shaquille O'Neal, 1992, Orlando — Let's hope the Magic, the
lottery's most frequent winner, have learned their lesson from
letting O'Neal go all those years ago. The self-proclaimed "Most
Dominant Ever" led the Magic to an NBA Finals appearance before
bolting in free agency to Los Angeles, where he joined the Lakers'
storied list of championship greats. The basketball world is
waiting to see if the Magic get it right this time with former
Southwest Atlanta Christian star Dwight Howard.
3. LeBron James, 2003, Cleveland — Three years into his reign,
James is the top vote getter on the All-NBA team and an MVP
candidate (he finished second to Steve Nash). More importantly,
James transformed a forgotten city into must-stop destination on
the NBA's star parade. At 21, he's being compared legitimately
to the game's greats. And at 6 feet 8, 250 pounds, he has a
chance to create a whole new category of player — he's currently
the only member.
4. Patrick Ewing, 1985, New York — Ewing is the man who got it
all started way back in 1985 in the most controversial lottery
there was. The conspiracy theories persist about the league
rigging the ping-pong balls in favor of the team in the league's
biggest media market. While Ewing never did win that NBA title,
he made the Knicks a perennial power during the league's greatest
era.
5. Elton Brand, 1999, Chicago — If the Bulls had just been a bit
patient, they'd have reaped the benefits of drafting Brand.
Instead, they traded him to the Los Angeles Clippers for Tyson
Chandler. They've had to watch, in anguish for sure, the past
month as Brand has delivered the long-time league doormat
Clippers to the cusp of the Western Conference finals. While a
lot of his contemporaries are praised for being "20-10" guys,
Brand really is.
The five worst No. 1 picks of the lottery era:
1. Michael Olowokandi, 1998, L.A. Clippers — Are there really
any words needed to describe the man that is arguably the worst
all-time No. 1 pick?
2. Pervis Ellison, 1989, Sacramento — It took the Kings nearly
a decade to recover from this debacle at No.1.
3. Kwame Brown, 2001, Washington — Will forever be the answer
to the trivia question; who is the first and worst high school
player taken with the No. 1 pick?
4. Joe Smith, 1995, Golden State — Doomed by retrospective draft
study — Kevin Garnett was drafted fifth in the same year.
5. Brad Daugherty, 1986, Cleveland — A decent pro, but injuries
never allowed him to become the dominant force many projected
him to become.
CHANCES OF WINNING
Team Rec. Pct.
1. Portland 21-61 25.0%
2. New York* 23-59 19.9%
3. Charlotte 26-56 13.8%
4. Atlanta 26-56 13.7%
5. Toronto 27-55 8.8%
6. Minnesota 33-49 5.3%
7. Boston 33-49 5.3%
8. Houston 34-48 2.3%
9. Golden State 34-48 2.2%
10. Seattle 35-47 1.1%
11. Orlando 36-46 0.8%
12. New Orleans 38-44 0.7%
13. Philadelphia 38-44 0.6%
14. Utah 41-41 0.5%
* To Chicago
資料來源
http://www.ajc.com/hawks/content/sports/hawks/stories/0523lottery.html
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