Baseball's most valuable players
By Nate Silver
原文
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=silver/060418
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=silver/060418_2
我們有四人上榜，算很多。
34. Victor Martinez, C, Cleveland Indians (27)
PECOTA has one particular worry with Martinez, which is the ability of a
slow-footed catcher -- Martinez has swiped only one bag in his career -- to
maintain a batting average north of .300. Still, it's not like we're talking
about Jason Kendall. Even if Martinez' BA corrects into the .270-.280 range,
he'll be vying with Joe Mauer for the AL's All-Star catcher job for years to
come.
33. Travis Hafner, DH, Cleveland Indians (29)
Hafner is the Bill Pullman of the baseball world: so consistent that you
might not even notice him. Since 2004, the lowest OPS that Hafner had in any
full month was .810 (May 2005). So it was only fair that Hafner had a
movie-star first week of the 2006 season, including a streak of reaching base
10 straight times, and four home runs in six at-bats. There is little
separating Hafner from the considerably more famous David Ortiz.
15. Jhonny Peralta, SS, Cleveland Indians (24)
We should recognize that career years don't always come at age 27 or 28;
23-year-olds are capable of outperforming their skill sets as well. PECOTA is
a little suspicious that this might have been the case with Peralta last
year, and from the early returns this season, it looks like it might be onto
something. Still, Peralta's career should fall somewhere within the goalposts
represented by Cal Ripken and Travis Fryman. Under most of those scenarios,
he'll be tremendously valuable to the Tribe.
14. Grady Sizemore, OF, Cleveland Indians (23)
We defer to Mark Shapiro in appointing the chief of the Three Little Indians
-- and it's instructive that Sizemore received a more lucrative contract
extension than either Peralta or Victor Martinez. Of the three, Sizemore also
has the most room for growth, particularly if he can add more home run power
to his frame. Think a left-handed version of Andre Dawson.
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