2009 ZiPS Projections - Cleveland Indians

看板Indians作者abc12812時間17年前 (2008/12/11 11:14)推噓0(0推 0噓 0→)

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http://tinyurl.com/57o2mr The Indians are now at the crossroads. With Sabathia gone, Hafner's career going the wrong way this year, and Carmona being injured (hip) and going and flip-flopping his 2/1 K/BB ratio, the Indians no longer have the luxury of more or less standing pat. At this point, the team simply doesn't have enough "now" talent to compete in 2009 and probably not enough "later" talent to compete in 2011. It'll probably be another year before Matt LaPorta is ready to be a real plus in the majors and a couple more for Mills and others. Yet the team has holes that need to be filled now if they are to compete in 2009. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CATCHERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K OPS+ RNG EXCELLENT: Victor Martinez# .293 .366 .447 115 430 56 126 27 0 13 66 48 59 113 Av VERY GOOD: Kelly Shoppach .246 .322 .465 93 284 45 70 20 0 14 50 27 102 105 Av FAIR: Chris Gimenez .237 .318 .380 107 376 49 89 18 0 12 50 38 88 84 Fr Carlos Santana# .238 .310 .382 114 432 66 103 23 0 13 59 44 68 81 Fr POOR: Wyatt Toregas .236 .299 .360 94 314 31 74 15 0 8 39 25 59 73 Av Sal Fasano .207 .277 .300 48 150 13 31 5 0 3 16 7 42 52 Fr ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FIRST BASEMEN ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K OPS+ RNG VERY GOOD: Travis Hafner* .261 .378 .469 105 371 58 97 21 1 18 66 65 88 122 AVERAGE: Victor Martinez# .293 .366 .447 115 430 56 126 27 0 13 66 48 59 113 Fr FAIR: Ryan Garko .267 .347 .419 134 468 55 125 24 1 15 68 42 90 101 Fr Matt LaPorta .241 .312 .435 108 407 52 98 20 1 19 67 33 78 95 Fr POOR: Jordan Brown* .268 .326 .391 120 473 57 127 26 1 10 60 37 67 88 Av Beau Mills* .261 .315 .404 123 495 54 129 24 1 15 69 34 94 88 Av Morgan Ensberg .218 .336 .366 98 284 42 62 12 0 10 39 49 73 86 Av Chris Gimenez .237 .318 .380 107 376 49 89 18 0 12 50 38 88 84 Fr Michael Aubrey* .252 .296 .395 75 294 29 74 15 0 9 40 16 43 80 Av Michael Brantley*.257 .318 .323 119 467 66 120 17 1 4 43 40 37 70 AV ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SECOND BASEMEN ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K OPS+ RNG FAIR: Asdrubal Cabrera#.266 .336 .391 152 542 83 144 30 1 12 70 55 94 91 Av POOR: Jamey Carroll .253 .336 .314 102 293 50 74 11 2 1 27 32 54 73 Vg Josh Barfield .253 .291 .355 121 431 51 109 22 2 6 48 21 81 70 Av Andy Gonzalez .223 .314 .318 96 318 33 71 12 0 6 34 40 85 68 Fr Josh Rodriguez .220 .284 .322 128 509 59 112 18 2 10 56 46 105 60 Av ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- THIRD BASEMEN ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K OPS+ RNG POOR: Beau Mills* .261 .315 .404 123 495 54 129 24 1 15 69 34 94 88 Fr Morgan Ensberg .218 .336 .366 98 284 42 62 12 0 10 39 49 73 86 Av Chris Gimenez .237 .318 .380 107 376 49 89 18 0 12 50 38 88 84 Fr Carlos Santana# .238 .310 .382 114 432 66 103 23 0 13 59 44 68 81 Pr Jamey Carroll .253 .336 .314 102 293 50 74 11 2 1 27 32 54 73 Av Andy Marte .237 .280 .380 101 329 33 78 15 1 10 43 18 63 72 Vg Andy Gonzalez .223 .314 .318 96 318 33 71 12 0 6 34 40 85 68 Fr ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SHORTSTOPS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K OPS+ RNG AVERAGE: Jhonny Peralta .267 .333 .440 149 573 92 153 33 3 20 89 55 136 102 Fr Asdrubal Cabrera#.266 .336 .391 152 542 83 144 30 1 12 70 55 94 91 Av POOR: Jamey Carroll .253 .336 .314 102 293 50 74 11 2 1 27 32 54 73 Fr Andy Gonzalez .223 .314 .318 96 318 33 71 12 0 6 34 40 85 68 Fr Josh Rodriguez .220 .284 .322 128 509 59 112 18 2 10 56 46 105 60 Fr ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORNER OUTFIELDERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K OPS+ RNG AVERAGE: Shin-Soo Choo* .282 .364 .456 118 412 68 116 27 3 13 64 50 94 115 Fr FAIR: Ben Francisco .265 .327 .420 123 457 60 121 27 1 14 66 39 88 96 Vg Matt LaPorta .241 .312 .435 108 407 52 98 20 1 19 67 33 78 95 Fr POOR: Todd Linden# .249 .339 .392 99 273 36 68 13 1 8 37 33 79 92 Av David Dellucci* .252 .326 .413 93 254 36 64 13 2 8 37 23 59 94 Pr FranklinGutierrez.258 .321 .400 119 380 57 98 23 2 9 51 31 86 89 Ex Chris Gimenez .237 .318 .380 107 376 49 89 18 0 12 50 38 88 84 Fr Carlos Santana# .238 .310 .382 114 432 66 103 23 0 13 59 44 68 81 Fr Jason Cooper* .226 .307 .370 101 332 40 75 17 2 9 43 36 85 78 Av Nicholas Weglarz*.232 .305 .369 121 461 50 107 19 1 14 61 45 93 77 Fr Trevor Crowe# .242 .307 .357 110 454 69 110 24 2 8 53 40 79 75 Vg Michael Brantley*.257 .318 .323 119 467 66 120 17 1 4 43 40 37 70 Vg Andy Gonzalez .223 .314 .318 96 318 33 71 12 0 6 34 40 85 68 Av ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CENTER OUTFIELDERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K OPS+ RNG EXCELLENT: Grady Sizemore* .281 .383 .515 159 637 117 179 41 6 32 122 93 139 134 Vg AVERAGE: Ben Francisco .265 .327 .420 123 457 60 121 27 1 14 66 39 88 96 Pr FranklinGutierrez.258 .321 .400 119 380 57 98 23 2 9 51 31 86 89 Av POOR: Trevor Crowe# .242 .307 .357 110 454 69 110 24 2 8 53 40 79 75 Av Michael Brantley*.257 .318 .323 119 467 66 120 17 1 4 43 40 37 70 Fr Andy Gonzalez .223 .314 .318 96 318 33 71 12 0 6 34 40 85 68 Fr ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- STARTERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ TOP THIRD: Cliff Lee* 3.68 14 9 30 30 198.0 204 81 18 43 142 123 Fausto Carmona 4.06 13 9 29 29 173.0 177 78 11 69 97 112 MIDDLE THIRD: Adam Miller 4.40 3 2 12 8 45.0 48 22 3 21 29 103 Jake Westbrook 4.42 6 6 18 18 110.0 122 54 9 37 58 103 Scott Lewis* 4.46 7 7 25 24 123.0 134 61 14 33 76 102 Aaron Laffey* 4.53 11 11 30 30 171.0 195 86 16 51 86 100 Anthony Reyes 4.79 5 5 20 16 94.0 100 50 14 31 67 95 David Huff* 4.84 5 6 19 18 93.0 103 50 14 24 62 94 Jeremy Sowers* 4.87 8 10 29 29 170.0 192 92 20 52 85 93 BOTTOM THIRD: Matt Ginter 5.47 5 8 23 16 97.0 119 59 13 28 48 83 Hector Rondon 5.49 7 11 28 28 136.0 159 83 22 49 69 83 Zach Jackson* 5.77 6 10 32 22 142.0 175 91 18 53 67 79 John Halama* 6.00 3 6 15 9 66.0 85 44 12 17 23 76 Chuck Lofgren* 6.39 4 10 29 21 114.0 135 81 19 74 66 71 Jeff Harris 6.99 2 6 19 11 76.0 100 59 20 23 34 65 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RELIEVERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ TOP THIRD: Rafael Perez* 3.30 5 2 69 0 79.0 72 29 6 28 76 137 MIDDLE THIRD: Rafael Betancourt 3.80 4 2 60 0 64.0 61 27 9 17 58 119 Jensen Lewis 4.34 3 3 63 0 83.0 85 40 10 37 67 105 BOTTOM THIRD: Masahide Kobayashi 4.66 4 5 58 0 58.0 65 30 7 14 33 97 Rich Rundles* 4.71 3 4 60 0 63.0 67 33 5 33 40 96 Tom Mastny 4.71 4 4 49 1 63.0 65 33 6 33 56 96 Brendan Donnelly 4.71 1 1 24 0 21.0 23 11 2 8 13 96 Tony Sipp* 4.86 3 3 28 6 63.0 62 34 10 28 58 93 Edward Mujica 4.92 3 3 49 0 64.0 71 35 8 19 44 92 Joe Borowski 4.95 3 3 41 0 40.0 45 22 5 12 30 92 Jonathan Meloan 4.97 6 8 45 12 105.0 107 58 12 61 78 92 Juan Rincon 5.05 3 3 62 0 66.0 72 37 8 29 53 90 Jeff Stevens 5.12 4 6 44 0 65.0 66 37 11 32 62 89 Rick Bauer 5.79 1 2 43 1 56.0 62 36 8 31 40 78 Brian Slocum 5.91 3 5 23 10 67.0 76 44 11 37 48 77 Scott Elarton 6.08 3 5 21 10 71.0 82 48 14 33 39 75 * - Throws Left ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Player Spotlight - Ryan Garko AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K OPS+ Projection .267 .347 .419 134 468 55 125 24 1 15 68 42 90 101 Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Craig Wilson, Mike Cervenak Offense % STAR 7 AVG 29 REP LV 71 OPS+ % OBP % 3B % Hits % >160 0 >.400 3 >10 0 >200 0 >140 2 >.375 16 >5 0 >150 1 >120 17 >.350 49 >100 53 >.325 84 2B % >80 88 >.300 99 >45 0 >60 100 >30 12 BA % SLG % HR % SB % >.350 0 >.550 0 >50 0 >70 0 >.325 1 >.500 7 >40 0 >50 0 >.300 8 >.450 30 >30 0 >30 0 >.275 33 >.400 59 >20 24 >10 0 >.250 74 >.350 88 >10 71 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Player Spotlight - Travis Hafner AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K OPS+ Projection .261 .378 .469 105 371 58 97 21 1 18 66 65 88 122 Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Boog Powell, Vic Wertz Offense % STAR 23 AVG 51 REP LV 87 OPS+ % OBP % 3B % Hits % >160 3 >.400 20 >10 0 >200 0 >140 15 >.375 48 >5 0 >150 0 >120 44 >.350 80 >100 80 >.325 96 2B % >80 98 >.300 100 >45 0 >60 100 >30 0 BA % SLG % HR % SB % >.350 0 >.550 9 >50 0 >70 0 >.325 1 >.500 23 >40 0 >50 0 >.300 5 >.450 49 >30 0 >30 0 >.275 22 >.400 80 >20 26 >10 0 >.250 59 >.350 98 >10 87 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Player Spotlight - Fausto Carmona ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Projection 4.06 13 9 29 29 173 177 78 11 69 97 112 Top Near-Age Comps: Storm Davis, John Denny ERA % Top 1/3 49 Mid 1/3 31 Bot 1/3 20 ERA+ % BB % >150 10 <29 0 >140 14 <38 0 >130 21 <48 10 >120 32 <58 24 >110 44 <67 46 >100 62 <77 72 >90 77 >80 88 HR % >70 95 <13 63 <19 80 K % <25 94 >173 0 <31 98 >154 0 >135 3 >115 17 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Player Spotlight - Cliff Lee ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Projection 3.68 14 9 30 30 198 204 81 18 43 142 123 Top Near-Age Comps: Vida Blue, Denny Neagle ERA % Top 1/3 73 Mid 1/3 22 Bot 1/3 5 ERA+ % BB % >150 21 <33 32 >140 29 <44 59 >130 40 <55 84 >120 53 <66 96 >110 68 <77 98 >100 83 <88 98 >90 93 >80 98 HR % >70 100 <15 40 <22 68 K % <29 82 >198 0 <35 94 >176 3 >154 22 >132 55 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) OPS+ >140 Sizemore 39 Choo 15 Hafner 15 OBP >.400 Sizemore 32 Hafner 19 Choo 17 SLG >.550 sizemore 25 Hafner 9 Choo 6 BA >.325 Choo 8 Martinez 6 Sizemore 2 2B >45 Sizemore 29 Peralta 12 Cabrera 2 3B >10 Sizemore 6 HR >30 Sizemore 57 Peralta 11 Hafner 1 SB >50 Sizemore 7 Brantley 5 Crowe 1 SUB-REPLACEMENT Weglarz 77 Cooper 67 Mills 62 ERA+ >140 Perez 50 Betancourt 31 Lee 29 K/9 >9 Perez 30 Stevens 26 Mastny 26 BB/9 <1.5 Lee 32 Betancourt 18 Huff 13 HR/9 <0.7 Carmona 63 Miller 56 Perez 44 SUB-REPLACEMENT Elarton 97 Harris 96 Slocum 92 All figures in % based on projection playing time. Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2006-2008. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on. -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.112.5.3