Pitcher Profile: Carl Pavano
http://tinyurl.com/7hjtog
Let's get a few things out of the way:
* That picture is hilarious.
* Carl Pavano was hurt a lot.
* Pavano has serious questions about his commitment to strength and
conditioning.
* I'm an Indians fan.
Now that we have those points out of the way, we can start to analyze
Pavano's mechanics. The only reference to his mechanics on the Internet was
Mike Pagliarulo's article on Dugout Central. (Note how BJ Ryan tops the
list.) Mike mentioned that Pavano has problems "leaking the front side" and
"balance position over the rubber." What? He doesn't go into much detail, but
he does talk about "leaking the front side" - it is apparently when the front
side opens too early and causes the pitching shoulder and arm to "speed up,"
making him a big injury risk. I actually agree with this quite a bit, and I
think it helps to explain the frequent shoulder injuries that Rich Harden
experiences. It's something I'll track and research a bit more. (This will
probably fall under the "Arm Action" phase of my analysis.)
However, I spot other problems in Pavano's delivery that make him at-risk for
injury. Take a look at this unrelated image from NoMaas:
Alright, that was uncalled for. Let's actually do some work...
Here's a pitching clip from 2008 vs. Tampa Bay:
You can see what Mike P. was talking about when Pavano "leaks the front side"
- he opens his shoulder a bit early, even if he does keep equal and opposite
arms.
I see very small signs of Hyperabduction, but strangely enough I see
something related to Mike's analysis that might explain the shoulder problems
he suffered. Take a look at the frames when Pavano "swims" his glove arm
back, forcibly loading the scapula. Not only does this "leak the front side,"
but it will stress the anterior portion of the shoulder. It is plainly
obvious that this is not a "passive" load of the scapula - it is forced.
Tempo: 21-22 frames from maximal leg lift to footplant. Just slightly Below
Average. What's more troubling is the fact that Pavano is a "tall-and-fall"
pitcher; he simply lifts his leg and puts it back down without drifting
through the balance point like most successful pitchers (Lincecum is the gold
standard).
Arm Action: Like I said above, Pavano uses a swim move with his glove to load
his scapula in a forced abduction pattern. I don't like this. Furthermore, he
is late at footstrike - his pitching forearm barely clears his shoulders when
his shoulders begin to turn, which probably explains the elbow troubles he's
had. Very Bad.
Ball Release: Pretty decent, actually. There's no question that Pavano has
intent to throw hard, but the steps leading up to the release phase are what
causes him problems. Still, he bends over at the waist - I prefer pitchers to
think "stand tall and rotate," which is a Dr. Marshall cue. I want them to
stick their pitching arm shoulder into the catcher's mitt. Average.
Followthrough: Bad. I see a lot of Max Scherzer in Pavano's followthrough -
he hangs his arm and doesn't firm up his glove side against his shoulder in
the deceleration phase. This can cause additional stress on the anterior and
posterior portions of Pavano's shoulder.
Still, Pavano's delivery is not that stressful - at least not to cause the
litany of random injuries he's suffered. Strained buttocks and cracked ribs
that kept him from pitching entirely in 2006? UCL rupture after pitching in
spring training and nothing else? There are tons of third-hand reports of him
eating candy bars and lounging around the Yankees clubhouse, doing nothing
while being unable to throw - and enjoying the experience. These are pretty
serious allegations - even Mike Mussina jumped on his back, telling Pavano
that he had to "get tough" and that other Yankees teammates were not a fan of
Pavano's indifference to physical conditioning.
I think that Carl Pavano has serious question marks about his dedication to
conditioning, something that the Indians no doubt understood - signing him to
a $1.5m guaranteed contract with an assured spot in the starting rotation.
Jay from Let's Go Tribe broke the deal down like this:
1-17 starts — 1.5M
18-19 starts — 1.6M
20-21 starts, <130 IP — 1.7M
20-21 starts, 130-139 IP — 1.8M
22-23 starts, 130-139 IP — 1.9M
24-25 starts, 140-149 IP — 2.2M
26-27 starts, 150-159 IP — 2.5M
28-29 starts, 160-169 IP — 2.85M
30-31 starts, 170-179 IP — 3.25M
30-31 starts, 180-189 IP — 3.45M
32 starts, 190-199 IP — 4.0M
33 starts, 200-214 IP — 4.6M
33 starts, 215-224 IP — 4.9M
34 starts, 225-234 IP — 5.65M
35 starts, 235+ IP — 6.55M
The only problem with the deal I see is the guaranteed slot in the rotation.
There's no reason to believe that Pavano is any better than Scott Lewis, Zach
Jackson, Aaron Laffey, or Jeremy Sowers, or... hmm. Actually, that's a load
of fringy pitchers, many of whom have had shots at the big league and have
failed to impress. (Please spare me Scott Lewis' performance at the end of
2008.)
Overall, I think the deal is fine for the Indians. It's a typical Mark
Shapiro move - sign a veteran who is considered to be washed up and see if
they can get anything out of him. It worked with Aaron Fultz, and uh... Joe
Borowski... and not too many others. Still, the point is that these deals
cost basically nothing in money and roster space (they can be released
painlessly) for a shot at some serious upside. Remember when the Big Hurt was
"washed up" and then went to Oakland for the first time?
As a parting note, did anyone know that Eric Mangini is Mark Shapiro's
brother-in-law? I didn't, but I'm not much of a Browns fan.
--
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