[外電] 笑臉人需要一名一壘手

看板Indians作者kobec (水桶工程師)時間7年前 (2017/12/18 12:56)推噓5(5推 0噓 0→)

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Indians now need a first baseman by Matt R. Lyons, Dec 15, 2017 文章來源：https://goo.gl/EZnYvK <懶人感想> Santana離隊後，對於明年笑臉人的先發打線/守備影響絕對不小。 EE雖然偶爾可以守一壘，但絕對不可能轉職成為正職一壘手。 Santana的離隊讓原本看似擁擠的內野好像空了些位置出來，Kipnis、Ramirez與Diaz 就不用再一起競爭2B/3B的位置，守備光譜較末端的1B可以交給其中一位去守。甚至剛傷癒的Brantley也能轉往一壘，降低再度受傷的風險。如果這不會影響他們在攻擊端的表現的話，或許是個選項。也是過去幾篇文章大家討論的重點：還是以目前球隊陣容來填補一壘這個洞。不過這篇文章的作者似乎不希望這麼做，他認為球隊還是需要一名正規/正職的一壘手，而從FA市場中簽下Logan Morrison是他極力推薦的選項。所以順手翻了這篇文章，希望與大家討論看看~ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ In losing Carlos Santana, the Tribe’s offseason mission becomes clearer. 失去Carlos Santana後，笑臉人在今年冬季的任務將變得明確。 This should go without saying after today’s events, but I’m going to say it anyway: The Cleveland Indians need to find a first baseman. 雖然在今天的消息公布後，積極找尋一位一壘手將是件無庸置疑的事情。但無論如何我還是要再說一次：笑臉人現在需要找尋一位可以守一壘的球員。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ If you haven’t heard the news, Carlos Santana signed a three-year, $60 million deal with the Philadelphia Phillies earlier today, and he will be wearing a uniform other than the Tribe’s and it’s weird and icky. All reports to this point had Santana’s as the Indians’ number one option during the Winter Meetings (they even had the ability to counter offers). Now that he’s gone, finding his replacement should take precedent. 若你還沒聽到這個新聞，那讓我告訴你：Carlos Santana將以三年六千萬的薪資與費城人合作，這也是他職業生涯首度穿上非笑臉人的球衣，這將讓人感到詭異與厭惡。截至今日為止，所有報導都認為Santana會是印地安人在冬季會議中的主要目標(它們甚至已經相互交換合約內容了)，但最後他還是離開球隊了，因此找尋一個替補他位置的一壘手將會是球隊目前最重要的事。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Technically, the Indians do have internal options, but only technically. And they aren’t great. The most common idea is to just slap anyone and everyone who has ever picked up a glove at the position. Michael Brantley? He’s never played there and who knows how effective his bat might be, but sure! Let’s do it. Jason Kipnis? See Brantley, Michael. They could opt for Edwin Encarnacion playing first ever day, but nobody wants to see that, and it only opens another hole at designated hitter. Santana needs to be replaced, the only issue is actually finding that replacement. 嚴格來說，笑臉人的確還有許多替補的選項，但這些選項都不夠傑出。目前最常見的想法就是直接找球員讓他移防一壘，例如Michael Brantley。但他從未守過一壘，而且我們也不知道移防到一壘後對他的打擊會有哪些影響，不過，沒錯，的確可以將他列為選項之一。那如果是讓Jason Kipnis站一壘呢?抱歉，你對Brantley移防的擔憂在他身上一樣存在。當然，我們可以讓EE每天都在一壘壘包上亮相，但絕對沒有人想看到這件事情發生，同時這也會讓球隊的DH出現一個洞，還是得找一名球員來補。所以我們需要找人代替Santana的位置，這也是目前最關鍵的事情。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Personally, I’ve hopped aboard the Logan Morrison train along with Merritt Rohlfing, who wrote up a full post of the possibility of Morrison coming to a Santana-less Indians team in 2018: 我個人來說，我的想法和另一個專欄作家Merritt Rohlfing一樣，希望Logan Morrison能夠成為Santana的替代品。Merritt Rohlfing寫了一大篇文章關於Morrison 可以在2018年加入少了Santana的笑臉人： ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ See, the Indians could really use Morrison. As said before, he essentially replicated Encarnacion last year and out-hit Santana in most every metric. But he signed a prove-it deal, and he proved it. It wasn't just last year either. From the beginning of July 2016 to the end of this season, a stretch of 673 plate appearances, he put up a 131 wRC+, walked 13 percent of the time and struck out 24.5 percent of the time. He was every bit as good as Santana. Which means he will be more expensive, though it's hard to convince me that he'll be as pricey as Santana. Reports are something in the 10-12 million range, whereas Santana could be slated for $15 million a year or more. 你看，Morrison在笑臉人將會得到好的舞台發揮，如同我之前所說的，他將會複製EE在去年的情況，同時能擊出比Santana更多的安打。他在去年簽下一紙需要證明自己身手的短約，而他也的確證明了自己的身價。而且不盡在去年，他早已多次證明自己的實力了。從 2016年七月到今年季末，他在673個PA中繳出了131 wRC+的成績，13%的保送率與24.5的被三振率。與Santana相比，他的成績毫不遜色。但他出色的表現意味著現在要簽下他可能需要花更多的錢，雖然他無法說服我支付他跟Santana一樣的薪水。現在的消息大都認為他的薪水大概會在一千萬到一千二百萬之間，而Santana 預計可以獲得一千五百萬年薪，甚或是更多。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Much of Morrison’s 2017 numbers were inflated by the juiced ball, batters uppercutting, or however else you want to explain batters slugging more home runs thane ever before. But unless Major League Baseballs sees a major problem with the new face of the game (or if it really is just a new approach to hitting that worked so well for so many players), then it’s not completely unreasonable for Morrison to hit for power again in 2018. Even Steamer, a robot number-crunching machine that doesn’t account for the idea of new baseballs and such, projects Morrison to hit 25 home runs next year. Morrison在2017年的表現多少受到彈力球、飛球革命或是其他任何你所能想到造成打者長打增加的原因的影響，這使得去年整個聯盟的全壘打產量比以往更多。但除非大聯盟願意正視這個改變比賽風貌的問題(或者其實這剛好只是許多打者都找到新的打擊方式)，否則對2018年的Morrison而言，要繳出和上季相同的成績並非不可能。即使是Steamer，這個能夠進行大量數據運算的機器人，都無法解釋這種改變，但他還是預測Morrison 在明年能夠繳出25轟的數據。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Morrison’s 2017 season wasn’t fueled solely by his power, either. The 30-year-old walked 13.5 percent, the most since his rookie season. That lead to a career-high .353 on-base percentage and it was a big factor in a wRC+ (130) that was higher than every batter on the Indians not named Jose Ramirez or Edwin Encarnacion last season. Morrison 在2017年球季的表現並非僅依靠他的力量，這位即將三十歲球員在去年的被保送率高達13.5%，僅次於他的菜鳥年。這也導致他的OBS是生涯新高的0.353，因為OBS對於 wRC+的影響很大，造成他的wRC+高達130，在上季笑臉人打線中僅次於Jose Ramirez與EE 。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ The hope is that other teams think Morrison’s season was a fluke and that he can’t replicate it. If that isn’t the case, the Indians aren’t completely in the lurch. There are always options at first base, even if they aren’t the greatest. Maybe Indians fans would grow to love Eric Hosmer’s sub-par play at first base and his stupid beard. Or maybe, like Morrison, Yonder Alonso’s 28 home runs and 132 wRC+ wasn’t a complete aberration, He, too, walked more than ever and was great at spreading the ball all over the field. Options are out there, now it’s up to the Indians to go out and get one instead of sitting back on what they have and hoping for the best. 目前只希望其他球隊會認為Morrison在上季的表現只是運氣好，而且他並不能將上季的表現複製到明年，而放棄與他接觸。但即使事情沒有想像中的順利，笑臉人也還不至於絕望，還有許多選項可供選擇，雖然這些選項並非最完美的。也許笑臉人的球迷會開始慢慢喜歡上Eric Hosmer在一壘上低於水準的演出以及他那愚蠢的鬍子，他的被保送率同樣在去年達到生涯新高，同時他的傳球能力也相當不錯。現在，選項都已經在那邊了，就看笑臉人會如何在市場中大展身手，而非只是坐在家中看著目前他們所擁有的球員並樂觀認為所有事情都一定會往好的方向發展。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 140.115.36.223 ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Indians/M.1513572983.A.EF3.html ※ 編輯: kobec (140.115.36.223), 12/18/2017 13:09:03