[外絮]富比士:林可能是哈佛有史以來最蠢的畢業生
只翻譯重點．
他會哈佛商學院學生的最好的case study：如果你的眼光不夠遠，你會損失無數的金錢，
和巨大的影響力。
一個世界級的行銷機器應該就留在世界級的商業首都。就像他自己剛告訴雜誌的，
如果可以選的話，他想留在紐約。
比起第一次的合約，多了五百萬，這合約對尼克來講，就變成了真正的毒藥合約。尼克可
能要為這五百萬多付三千萬。
我可以理解為什麼火箭會提供這合約，但為什麼林書豪會拿這樣的合約？
我只可以想出兩個理由：
一個是財務的確定性。這是保證可以拿到的
但多拿了這五百萬，就代表linsanity的終結。如果他留在紐約，只要他有上個季末表現
的80%，以紐約媒體和尼克隊推銷的功力，他保證可以有數千萬的代言簽約。
沒有人在乎如果林帶領山貓贏得大家的尊重。這不會令人感到興趣。可口可熱不會因此而
付他千萬美金代言。
第二個是自我。
上次傳言林不爽尼克．林在twitter上的模糊字句的推文 "probably not" true
跟典型的明星的回言很像"i am sorry if anyone was offened"
別人設想他想當球隊的絕對核心(go-to-guy)，而不想跟Melo和其他隊友合作。
這些設想全部都傷害到他的名聲。
大家喜歡他不是因為他是一個球星。
而是因為他曾經是一個失敗者(underdog) 但他謙虛，而且他贏了。
他的選擇 破壞了 媒體幫他曾經塑造的形象。
昨晚，主持人宣布林瘋狂的正式終結。但更確切的說，林把這個可能會帶來無限多黃金的
牌子，以五百萬美金最蠢的價格賤賣了。
http://www.forbes.com/sites/randalllane/2012/07/18/jeremy-lin-may-be-the-
dumbest-harvard-grad-ever/2/
Jeremy Lin May Be The Dumbest Harvard Grad Ever
Sorry for the harsh headline, but I’m having a hard time coming up with any
other conclusion. While I haven’t checked the Harvard core curriculum
lately, it must surely be light on math, psychology and logic, and completely
devoid of Marketing 101. How else to explain the self-destructive actions of
its most famous basketball alum, Jeremy Lin, who has taken the global
phenomenon known as Linsanity and doused it with kerosene.
After last night’s decision by the New York Knicks to let him walk to the
Houston Rockets, almost all of the analysis has focused on Knicks owner Jim
Dolan. He faced a vexing dilemma, given the back-loaded contract offer from
the Houston Rockets that would have forced the Knicks to effectively pay $50
million for Lin’s services three years hence. (My friend Howard Beck of the
New York Times provides a useful primer here.) How do you weigh Lin’s
basketball and marketing potential against a very small sample set (he’s
started all of 25 games in his career) and also against not just what he
would be paid, but the larger ramifications of his contract down the line?
Given that the adjectives associated with Dolan, backed up a dysfunctional
track record, generally include illogical, vindictive, paranoid and dumb (and
because I’m a lifelong Knicks fan, I’m being kind), he’s predictably being
ripped apart.
In the end, though, I’m more fascinated by the choices Lin made. Dolan will
be rich and reviled no matter what he does. Lin may have signed a big
contract, but he also just provided the folks at Harvard Business School with
a brilliant case study how to cost yourself millions of dollars and scads of
influence when you’re not looking at the big picture.
To review, the point guard’s scrub-to-star rise in February – Linsanity! —
has arguably been the best sports story of the year, played out on one of
the biggest stages, Madison Square Garden. But the NBA’s complicated labor
rules forced Lin to shop around his services in order to maximize his next
contract with the Knicks. At first, he did so brilliantly, according to
numerous reports, originally getting Houston to offer him roughly $5 million
for his first two years of his contract (the maximum anyone was allowed), and
then a $9 million balloon in the third year, with a team option for a fourth.
Various Knicks sources, including their coach, playing poker as deftly as a
late-night drunk at Circus Circus, announced that they would match it, and
that was presumably that. A global marketing machine would remain in the
global marketing capital, as had been his goal all along, Lin just told
Sports Illustrated.
And this where Lin flunked miserably. After the clumsy Knicks showed their
hand, Lin and Houston agreed to add another $5 million to his guaranteed
salary in third year – a true poison pill, since that extra $5 million would
cost the Knicks an extra $20 million or so, courtesy of the NBA’s punitive
new luxury tax, atop the effective $30 million bite they had already
internalized.
I get why Houston did it. But why did Lin, as an equal party to the new
offer, go along? I can only offer two theories:
Financial Certainty: With the revised offer, Lin guaranteed himself an extra
$5 million in his pocket, three years from now. That’s serious scratch for a
man who had been sleeping on his brother’s couch earlier this year. And
given legitimate worries that he was way overperforming during his magical 25
game coming out, taking the sure thing now makes some sense.
But why structure it in a way so punitive to New York? If it was all about
certainty, Lin could have instead tried to guarantee that fourth year (or
even a fifth year). At $9 million per, that’s way more downside protection,
yet spreading it out in a way that didn’t push the Knicks toward the fiscal
cliff.
As for the upside, forcing the Knicks to even consider ending his tenure in
New York is the truest definition of Linsanity. If Lin is even 80% as good as
he showed in flashes last season, fronting a very good, very hyped Knicks
team had the potential to bring him tens of millions in endorsements. But as
Steve Herz, who cuts celebrity endorsement deals as president of IF
Management previously told my colleague Tom Van Riper: “Lin leading the
Charlotte Bobcats back to respectability wouldn’t be that interesting. It’s
not something that Coca-Cola is going to play $10 million for.”
Insert “Houston Rockets” into that sentence, and you get Lin’s new
reality. Rather than the golden boy on an obsessed-over team in the world’s
media capital, he’s now an above-average player on a below-average team in a
low-profile city.
Yes, Yao Ming made the Rockets popular in China. It’s another reason why
Houston made a smart move here. But it doesn’t do much for Lin.
Ego: If you believe “sources close to Lin,” he was offended that the Knicks
didn’t court him pro-actively (ignoring the fact that the way the system was
set up, they needed to let someone else make an offer if he wanted more
money). Compounding matters, when he sent out a Tweet trying to clarify, Lin
said that such blind item stories are “probably not” true – the kind of
squishy response that conjures the classic celebrity “I’m sorry if anyone
was offended” apology.
Others have posited that he wanted to be the go-to guy on his team, versus
share with ball hog Carmelo Anthony and the rest of the star-laden Knicks.
Even speculation in these areas damages Lin’s brand. People didn’t fall in
love with Lin because he was a star player. They loved him because he’s an
underdog, he was humble and he won. The choice he just made, amid the circus
he helped create, undermines all of those attributes.
Last night, as I watched SportsCenter, the anchors declared these
developments as the formal “end of Linsanity.” But it’s more accurate to
say that Jeremy Lin sold it for a $5 million note three years from now – a
monumentally foolish price for a brand that could have been golden.
※ 編輯: imgkiller 來自: 166.248.8.142 (07/19 04:31)
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※ 編輯: imgkiller 來自: 166.248.8.142 (07/19 05:09)
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