[閒聊] 數據看Hawes

看板Kings (沙加緬度國王)作者santabrelai時間16年前 (2010/01/08 10:02)推噓9(9推 0噓 7→)

留言16則, 9人參與討論串1/1

http://www.sactownroyalty.com/2010/1/7/1238120/the-interesting-case-of-dr-spencer Spencer Hawes has been a hot topic this year. Many have claimed that he has regressed as a player in his 3rd year in the NBA. The Kings definitely are lacking in the frontcourt and much like Beno with the backcourt last year, fans are pointing to Spencer as the biggest problem up front. 今年這話題超火，大家都在說他退步了。國王現在看來在前場有個洞，就像去年後場的Beno一樣，球迷們都將問題指向Spencer。 So has Spencer regressed? 所以屁仔退步了嗎？ (Statistics used from 82games.com ,hoopdata.com ,and basketball-reference.com) First lets just take a look at the basic stats: FG 3PT FT Rebounds Misc G Min M A Pct M A Pct M A Pct Off Def Tot Ast TO Stl Blk 71 13:05 2.1 4.5 45.9 0.1 0.3 19.1 0.5 0.8 65.5 1.0 2.3 3.2 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.6 77 29:18 4.8 10.4 46.6 0.5 1.5 34.8 1.2 1.8 66.2 1.9 5.2 7.1 1.9 2.1 0.6 1.2 33 27:18 4.4 9.4 46.6 0.4 1.3 32.6 1.4 1.9 75.4 2.0 4.0 6.0 2.2 1.7 0.6 0.9 塞不下系列犯規數：1.8 3.2 2.8 平均得分：4.7 11.4 10.6 Just looking at basic stats shows a few things. First off, his scoring and offense hasn't really been impacted. Per 36 minutes, he's averaging 14.0 points, the same as last years per 36. His overall FG% is the same, his FT% is much improved, and his 3P% is lower, but not by too much. He's also getting more assists, less turnovers, less blocks, and less fouls Per 36. His TS% is also above 50%, but for a Center, you'd like to see his FG% above 50%, not his TS%. 從數據上來看，他的得分和進攻並沒有太大的影響。平均36分鐘的得分數，和去年是一樣的14分。命中率相同、罰球進步、三分變低。助攻上升、失誤下降、火鍋下陣、犯規率下降。他的TS高於五成，但以中鋒來說，你想看到的是五成命中率，不是五成TS。 Spencer_peaches_medium But by far the biggest difference between this year and last year have been his rebounding numbers. Spencer's rebounding, while improved on the offensive end, have definitely regressed in regards to the defensive end. Advanced Statistics shows the big fall off from last year, when he was grabbing 20.9% of the defensive boards for a total of 8.7 boards per 36 minutes. That's still reasonable for a Center (for reference, Andrew Bogut had a 21.9% Defensive Rebound rate his sophomore year at Age 22), but this year, Spencer's rebound rate has dropped to an abysmal 16.6% (for reference, Mikki Moore has a career 16.1 DRB%). Of all Starting Centers in the NBA, Spencer ranks ahead of only Andrea Bargnani (16.0 DRB%) in DRB%, and is very close to Roy Hibbert (16.7 DRB%) and tied with Nenad Krstic (16.6 DRB%). For a player with as good of hands as Spencer, I don't think there's a reason why he shouldn't be at 20% or more for DRB%. I believe it has something to do with lower body strength, and also a little bit because of the fact that Tyreke is grabbing a lot of rebounds that point guards usually don't get. Still there is no doubt that Spencer has definitely regressed in the rebounding area of his game. 最大的差異，在於籃板數目。屁仔的籃板在進攻端有進步，但是在防守端卻明顯差了很多。去年他有20.9％的機率拿下防守籃板，以36分鐘來看，他的防守籃板數會達到8.7 顆（比較一下：Bogut 在二年級時，平均防守籃板率是21.9％）。但今年來看卻是哭哭的 16.6％（比較一下：Moore 生涯是16.1％）。在聯盟的先發中鋒排名裡，他只贏了暴龍的狀元Bargnani（16.0％），跟溜馬新秀Hibbert （16.7％）、雷霆Kristic （16.6％）也相去不遠。對於有一雙好手的球員來說，我不懂為什麼屁仔不能拿到20％以上的成績。我相信部分是下半身的力量問題，也有部分是Beno => Tyreke所造成的控衛籃板數差異。但無疑的，這個地方是他退化最大的地方。（Bogut => Moore 好殺的比喻！） As for defense, even though his blocks have come down, his defensive rating has improved from 113 points per 100 possessions to 110 points per 100 possessions. Also, last year, when Spencer was in the game, the opponent Effective FG% allowed was 53.5%. This year its only 51.7%. But although it looks like his individual defense has improved, his team defense seems to have regressed. Last year, when Spencer was off the court, the teams opponent Effective FG% allowed improved from 53.5% to 51.4%. This year when Spencer is off the court, the Kings opponent EFG% allowed improves from 51.7% to 49.3%. It seems as if the team plays better defense when he is off the floor. 防守端來講，防守排名由每100 次進攻的113分下降到110分。而對手的EFG 也由53.5 ％下降到51.7％。雖然看來個人防守有進攻，團隊防守卻下降了。去年當屁仔不在場上的對手的EFG 由53.5％下降到51.4％，今年是51.7％下降到49.3％。看來少了他的防守會比較好。 When we look at Spencer's Opponent PER per 48 minutes from last year to this year, we see an improvement in individual defense. Last year Spencer's opponents averaged a 19.6 PER when playing against him. This year, Spencer's opponents only have a 16.9 PER. Still, the average PER is around 15, and Spencer is not doing a very good job in the paint. Has he improved a bit on that end from last year? I would say yes on man defense, but when you factor in his regression in defensive rebounding (an important aspect of defense), I wouldn't say he's improved very much. 接著來看看PER ，我們也看到了在防守的進步。去年屁仔的對手對抗他時是19.6的數字。今年則是16.9。聯盟平均值定為十五，而屁仔在今年在禁區裡並沒做得多好，他有什麼進步嗎？我想個人防守是有，但看到防守籃板的退化，我想就算進步也沒有太多。 On Offense, Spencer has stayed basically the same as last year. His usage rate is down slightly, which means he's getting the ball less, which makes sense with the addition of Tyreke, and his points are down, but that mainly goes to him getting less minutes than last year. His shot selection has improved though, from him taking 48% of his shots inside last year, to 53% inside this year. Also, 100% of his 3 point shots are assisted, so he's not really taking any of those out of the rhythm of the game. 進攻端上，看來屁仔跟去年打平。使用率下降，代表他持球的機會變少，當然跟Reke 的加盟有關，得分變少，不過這跟上場時間有相關。投籃選擇變好了，去年有48％的投籃是在內線，今年上升到53％。還有他的三分都是來自於助攻，所以他並沒有因為投三分而讓比賽失去節奏。（譯：我知道你現在站在屁仔身後，心裡非常火，但是請看完文章再說） One worrying statistic about Spencer's offensive game though is the percentage of his shots that get blocked. Last year, 6.4% of his shots were blocked, while this year 10.0% of his shots were blocked. I think this goes hand in hand with his rebounding problem. He lacks the strength to power his way inside, and tends to take the ball up too softly, which results in quite a few blocks. For example, Tyreke Evans, who is 6'6 and also takes 52% of his shots inside (more layups than Spencer it might be added), only gets blocked 7% of the time. That's very worrying to me, when our 7'1 Center gets blocked more than our 6'6 point guard. In fact, Spencer is the King who gets his shot blocked the most, with the only one coming close to him as Jason Thompson at 7.5% of the time. I wonder what has changed so much from last year to see such a drop off in this area from Spencer. 令人擔心的是被巴鍋這件事。去年他只有 6.4％被巴的機會，今年卻跳到10.0％，我想這跟籃板的問題一樣。他不夠力！拿球時總是輕柔飄逸，就跟飛柔一樣，讓人想搧就搧。相比較來看，Reke也有52％的內線進攻率（還有很多是上籃），但被巴的機率是 7％。我們七呎一的中鋒被巴的比我們六呎六的控球還多，這是我最擔憂的一件事，事實上，他是國王的最佳被巴獎，第二名則是JT的 7.5％。我想這是一個很大的下滑。 Spencer is only 21 years old. He would be a Senior in College right now. Nobody doubts his potential, and he's shown flashes of brilliance (youngest Center ever to get a triple double, his performance against the Lakers), but he has not shown consistency yet, and if he hopes to be the Kings starting Center for years to come, that is definitely something that needs to happen. In my opinion, I think he needs to get stronger, especially in regards to his lower body strength. 屁仔還只有21歲，很多人這個時候還在大學三年級。沒有人懷疑他的潛能，他也有打過漂亮的好球（最年輕的大三元、打湖人的表現），但他總是穩定不下來，如果要當我們的長期計劃，那一定要持續表現。以我的想法來說，我想他得去重訓，特別是下半身的部分。 So has Spencer regressed? I think its safe to say that he has in some areas, and improved in others. The real regression in my mind is that he hasn't really made a leap this year, as most players in their 3rd year tend to do. There hasn't been any really noticeable improvement in his game or even statistics. But also take into consideration the Coaching change and the additions of Tyreke as a primary ball handler on the team. Spencer is being asked to do things he wasn't last year, and it could be that he's the only one seemingly suffering from the coaching change. 所以他退步了嗎？我保守的說，在某方面是，在某方面不是。最讓我失望的是，他沒有像其他三年級生一樣有個跳躍性的成長。沒有任何值得誇讚的進步，甚至是數據上的增加。但也要想到教練系統的轉換，還有Tyreke目前來說才是我們系統的主流，我們要求的都不是去年要求的東西，而他也是目前看來唯一的換教練受害者。舊文3633 Ailene Voisin: Minutes will speed rookie's learning 雖然Hawes 試著要堅持下去，可是我們明顯看出他的力量和耐力的確不足。但不要忘了，他不可能一天晚上之後就變成Karl Malone 的複製人。他才19快到20，不是40歲。他還有很長的一段時間可以努力。現在重要的是技巧而不是他的磅數和肌肉，最糟的情況反而是我們貿然將這個小子丟到重訓室去。事後諸葛：還是把他丟進去的好.... -- http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html TS = PTS / (2 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA)) EFG = (FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA PER = http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/per.html -- 總比Jason Collins好？霍霍霍霍霍霍霍霍（總比Mikki Moore好是否還適用？） -- 以上內容都來自球迷分析，一篇文章不會因為是英文就變好文章，也不會因為看球超過十年，就變得很會分析（不然我們應該超信糗爺）。你可以覺得這篇文章作者怎麼還能忍受Hawes ，也可以認為Hawes 比他說得還要好。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 125.224.128.61