[閒聊] Riding Out The Season

看板Kings (沙加緬度國王)作者kingpredrag (I love Man Utd!!!!!!!!!)時間16年前 (2010/01/26 14:33)推噓3(3推 0噓 4→)

留言7則, 3人參與討論串1/1

Riding Out The Season http://0rz.tw/uVl6d Your Sacramento Kings are currently about two games behind the pace that I had predicted for them back in October, and 75% of you said at the time that I was being too optimistic. Yet many of us are now dissatisfied with this 29 win (adjusted projection) team. Why? 我十月發了一篇預測戰績的文章﹝http://0rz.tw/mhdn1﹞，目前國王的成績和我所預測的勝場少兩場，當時有75%的人認為我太樂觀了，但現在大多數你們卻對這支可能拿下29勝的球隊仍不滿足。﹝作者當初評估為31勝，目前和他的預測少兩勝，所以他修正為29勝﹞。 Through the first 36 games of this year, the Kings had not lost a game by 20 points or more. The team’s scoring and points yielded average were almost identical, a result of largely competitive and hard fought games. But in the last seven games, the Kings have dropped games by 21 and 31 points. So we’re not just dealing with losses here. We’re dealing with the team being less competitive. During this recent seven game stretch, the Kings have only cracked the 100 point mark once, and they are losing by an average of 15 points. Wha’ happened? 本季的頭36場比賽，國王從未輸超過20分以上，球隊的平均得分和失分幾乎一模一樣，因此產生多場競爭激烈而讓人難以忘懷的比賽。然而過去七場比賽，國王皆曾落後達21分到 31分之間，我們現在要談的不只是這些敗場，同時也要談談球隊為何缺乏競爭力的問題。過去七場比賽，國王只有一場得分破百，平均失分達15分，到底發生甚麼事？ First of all, the schedule has taken a brutal turn. Let’s take a look at the "true winning percentage" of the Kings schedule. By true winning percentage, we don’t just look at an opponent’s record; we look at their home and road record, and take into consideration whether the game is a home or away game. For example, you can look at the recent Charlotte game and say that the Kings lost to a .500 ballclub, or you can consider that the Bobcats are 18-5 at home, a .783 clip that exceeds the Lakers season winning percentage of .767. This is an important factor. The Kings, for example, are a .571 team at home (hey, we’re the Phoenix Suns!), and a .136 team on the road (hey, we’re in between the New Jersey Nets and the Minnesota Timberwolves!). Let’s take a look at the schedule by month: 首先是賽程變的艱鉅的問題。來看看國王賽程的真實勝率，在此我們不單只是看對手的戰績，我們還要看對手主場和客場的個別成績，將主場和客場的差異納入考慮。舉例來說，你可以看最近跟山貓的比賽，然後說我們是輸給一支五成勝率的球隊，當你把山貓的主場成績納入考慮後，他們在主場的勝率為.783比湖人的.767還高，這是一個重要的因素，國王在家的成績是.571﹝我們跟太陽差不多喔﹞，但客場就變成只有.136﹝剛好夾在籃網和灰狼之間﹞。我們來逐月檢視賽程表。 October – Only 3 games, all losses. The true winning percentage (TWP) of these teams totals .681, roughly the equivalent of Boston’s record this season. 十月，只有三場比賽，全部飲恨。對手的真實勝率落在.681，大概是超賽等級的球隊。 November – The Kings went 8-5 in November. The accumulative TWP of their opponents was .443 which would land somewhere in between the LA Clippers and the Milwaukee Bucks. 十一月，國王本月八勝五敗。對手的真實勝率落在.443，對手等級落約在快艇和公鹿之間。 December – A 6-9 month playing against a .510 schedule, the equivalent of playing Charlotte or Toronto all month. 十二月，本月都遇上.510等級的球隊，戰績為六勝九敗，約是山貓或暴龍之類的球隊。 January – 1-11 so far, versus a .607 schedule, sort of like playing against San Antonio night in and night out. The good news? The Kings finish the month facing a .375 schedule, so hopefully they win two of the next three. 一月，目前一勝十一負，面對一份.607的賽程表，日復一日的遇上馬刺隊等級的對手。好消息是國王在本月末的賽程為.375，希望他們在接下來三場比賽能取得兩勝。 Recapping on this item, the TWP of the Kings schedule has gotten progressively tougher from November to December to January. The team that looked pretty good playing against a Clippers/Bucks level of schedule has struggled much more against the Spurs level of schedule. 藉由真實勝率的整理，我們可以發現國王的賽程是月益艱難，我們對上快艇或公鹿層級的球隊時打的不錯，但對上馬刺等級的球隊時，我們就澇賽了。 Next, there is the rookie wall factor. Frankly, I think that there has not much impact here, at least not yet. Tyreke Evans is down statistically this month, most notably in rebounds (4.7 for the season, but 3.6 for the month), but that might be partly a result of the tougher schedule. That said, tired legs might be a contributor as well. Omri Casspi’s minutes are up this month, but his numbers are down, and his shot looks like it might have flattened out a little bit. Jon Brockman is showing no signs of hitting the wall, but he is better rested than Evans or Casspi. 其次要討論的是新秀的撞牆期，坦白說我覺得這項因素目前的影響不大，reke在本月的數據有下滑，掉最多的是籃板﹝賽季平均4.7個，本月平均3.6個﹞，但有部分的原因來自日益嚴峻的賽程，疲憊的雙腿也是主因之一。卡卡在本月的上場時間增加，但他的數據也下滑了，他的投籃弧度變的比較平。洛克人還沒有撞牆的跡象，但和reke和卡卡比起來，他得到較充足的休息時間。 Finally, there is the Kevin Martin factor. Martin is trying to work his way back into the flow, and his teammates are trying to get used to him. At times it appears that Martin is trying so hard to fit in that he is not simply playing his game. He is passing on shots that he normally takes, and forcing passes where he may not have passed before. To be fair to Martin, he has played against a much tougher schedule. Referencing back to true winning percentage, the Kings played against a .500 schedule (Toronto/Charlotte) in Martin’s absence, and Martin has suited up to face a .607 schedule (Portland). But what can’t be denied is the fact that the offense has taken a big step backward, and it appeared to occur just one game prior to Martin’ s return. 最後談到馬丁，馬丁正在努力融入球隊，隊友也試著充分配合他。目前看來馬丁的適應出了些問題，而且他也沒有照著自己的熟悉的方式打球。當馬丁每次觸球，他變成傳球優先於投籃，一些他以前不會傳的球他也選擇傳出去，而且馬丁比較衰，遇上較困難的賽程，用真實勝率來判斷，馬丁尚未歸隊時，球隊的賽程是.500難度﹝暴龍或山貓等級﹞，當馬丁歸隊後賽程難度躍升至.607﹝拓荒者等級﹞，不可否認我們的進攻出現了問題，這在馬丁歸隊前只發生過一次。 Conclusion? The schedule has gotten tougher, the young players may be getting tired, and the team is trying to figure out how to integrate their most lethal offensive player back into what used to be the flow. In other words, it ’s not any one thing – it’s a lot of things. The schedule needs to back off a little (you’re looking at .529 TWP for February), the rooks need to get their second wind, and Kevin Martin needs to meld with his team and with himself. Accomplishing these three things might not translate into significantly more wins, but it should get us back to where the last two minutes of most of these games matter again. 該做總結嗎？賽程日益艱難，年輕的球員可能體力無法調節，以及球隊正在想辦法讓最致命的射手融入陣型。換句話說，這並不是單一問題，而是很多的問題。二月的賽程難度下降了一點﹝.529﹞，菜鳥們要趕快振作，馬丁要趕快找回自己的節奏並融入隊上。改善這三件事也許並不會讓球隊的勝場有明顯的增加，但至少能讓球隊在比賽的最後兩分鐘仍有獲勝的希望。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 118.167.171.157