[外電] 國王可以等嗎？

看板Kings (沙加緬度國王)作者kingpredrag (I love Man Utd!!!!!!!!!)時間15年前 (2010/04/26 21:57)推噓44(44推 0噓 64→)

留言108則, 17人參與討論串1/1

Can the Kings Wait? 國王可以等嗎？ http://0rz.tw/PyHR7 Patience is the buzz word in Sacramento right now. The Bee's Jason Jones is the latest to report a sense the Kings will remain fairly quiet in free agency, instead following the so-called Portland-Oklahoma City model: build through the draft, and add cheap supplementary players. The argument is that by focusing on youth and flexibility, you build a foundation for long-term success rather than chasing one good season. But the strategy Portland and OKC have undertaken has been seriously misconstrued. Yes, both teams have built their core through the draft. No, neither team has signed a top-level free agent. But what the Blazers and Thunder have done, and what Sacramento is purporting to be doing are completely different. After the jump, I explain why. 「耐心」這個詞目前在沙加緬度很熱門，蜂報記者Jason Jones最近一篇文章就提到國王今年暑假最好保持觀望，應該學習拓荒者和雷霆的例子，由選秀重建，用便宜的工兵補強，究竟我們應該專注於年輕球員身上重建打造一支常勝的勁旅，抑或我們可以隨機應變追求一個球季的光榮。然而我們誤解了拓荒者和雷霆的策略，兩隊皆藉由選秀確立球隊核心，兩隊也都沒有簽下任何頂級的自由球員，但兩隊所做的和國王打算去做的完全是兩碼子事。我將在下面作解釋。 Portland's core can be defined as Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge and Greg Oden. Roy was the No. 6 pick in 2006. Aldridge was No. 2 in that same draft. Oden was, of course, the No. 1 pick in 2007. (This ignores Martell Webster, a 2005 lotto pick.) Oklahoma City's core would be Kevin Durant (No. 2 in 2007), Jeff Green (No. 5 in 2007) and Russell Westbrook (No. 4 in 2008), plus perhaps someday soon Jeff Harden (No. 3 in 2009). Portland has three top-6 picks from within the past four years. Oklahoma City has four. After June, the Kings will have two. Sure, one of those two is Tyreke Evans, and the other could be John Wall or Evan Turner. But to get a third top-6 pick, the Kings will again have to be awful -- as in 26 wins or worse -- in 2010-11. Anyone looking forward to that? And let's face it: Evans isn't Durant, and probably will never be Durant. I'm as starry-eyed as the next guy, but Durant is a LeBron rival. He's not of this planet. Anyone projecting Evans to rival Durant or LeBron within a few years is bargaining with lunacy. Reke's great, and a hard-worker, and the brightest star Sacramento's ever had. But he's not Durant. 拓荒者的核心是Roy，Alsridge和Oden，Roy是2006年第六順位，Aldridge是同年榜眼而 Oden是2007年狀元﹝在此略過2005第6順位的Webster﹞；雷霆的核心是Durant﹝2007年第二順位﹞、Green﹝2007年第五順位﹞和Westbrook﹝2008年第4順位﹞也許未來還會加上Harden﹝2009年探花﹞。波特蘭過去四年內有三個前六順位的籤，雷霆則是四個。而今年六月過後，國王只有兩個。的確，我們兩個中的一個叫做Tyreke Evans，另一個則有可能是John Wall或Evan Turner，但如果我們想要第三個前六順位的話，還得再爛一年﹝不能超過26勝﹞，有人會期待這個嗎？而且面對現實，Evans不是Durant，而且可能永遠都不會是Durant，我當然期待Evans，但Durant是Lebron那一等級的，他已經不在地球上了，期待Evans在幾年內趕上Durant或Lebron是不切實際的事。Reke很棒也很努力，是沙加緬度最閃亮的新星，但他不是Durant。 The Blazers, meanwhile, have certainly not avoided paying substantial salaries to supplementary players. The team did everything it could to keep Darius Miles's $9 million 2009-10 salary off the books so the Blazers could be the biggest players in free agency last summer. When that failed, Portland made high-profile (and high-dollar) bids for Hedo Turkoglu (despite having Nicolas Batum, Webster and Travis Outlaw at small forward) and Paul Millsap (despite having Aldridge, Oden and Joel Przybilla up front) before settling on Andre Miller (despite having Steve Blake at the point). When injuries destroyed the front line, the team flipped for Marcus Camby; when he worked out well, the team extended his contract two years to the tune of $20 million. Before making any additions this summer -- rookies, a mid-level exception -- the Blazers are knocking on the 2010-11 luxury tax threshold. That the Blazers have patiently built while avoiding paying veterans big money is a complete myth. The Blazers made brilliant decisions to free up cap space (the Zach Randolph deal, in particular) so a player like Miller could be obtained, made great draft decisions in 2006, and lucked into a top-3 pick in 2007. If Portland happened to have $20 million of cap space in 2007, do you think Kevin Pritchard would have sat on it? Of course not! He did all he could to get 2009 cap space, and spent every penny. 阿拓從不吝於開出豐厚的合約給替補球員，他們在2009-10球季想盡辦法要規避Darius Miles九百萬的合約，好讓球隊去年暑假能成為最大買家，當他們失敗後，他們還是開給Hedo Turkoglu﹝他們隊上的小前鋒已經有Nicolas Batum，Webster和Travis Outlaw﹞ 和Paul Millsap﹝他們前場也已經有Aldridge、Oden和Joel Przybilla﹞高額合約，最後他們簽下Andre Miller﹝控衛也有Steve Blake了﹞，當球隊禁區傷兵不斷時，他們立刻換來Marcus Camby，Camby的表現獲肯定後，球隊也馬上和他簽下兩年兩千萬的延長合約，在今年暑假簽下任何新秀或中產球員之前，拓荒者已經到達繳豪華稅的門檻。別再相信阿拓很有耐心重建一直避免給老鳥高額合約這種沒有根據的說法，拓荒者很聰明地清出薪資空間﹝譬如交易Zach Randolph﹞以便簽下Miller之類的球員，2006年選秀選的很漂亮，2007年又很幸運地抽到狀元籤，如果拓荒者2007年就有兩千萬的薪資空間，你認為阿拓總管Kevin Pritchard會在當年自由球員市場袖手旁觀？當然不可能，他所做的一切就是清出2009年的薪資空間，然後花光每一分錢。 Oklahoma City's Sam Presti did forego 2009 cap space, however. The Thunder had about $9 million, and Presti sat on it, instead letting his young squad grow organically. (He eventually used a chunk of it to take Matt Harpring's dead weight contract from Utah, saving the Jazz $6.5 million in luxury tax and netting the Thunder Eric Maynor.) But don't forget Presti's attempt to trade expiring contracts for Tyson Chandler in February 2009. That would have put the Thunder over the cap before July began, as Chandler made $11.7 million this season (with $12.6 million due in 2010-11). At the time of the near-trade, Durant was 20, Westbrook was 20, Green was 22 -- the core was as young as could be. So much for patience, right? Presti saw an opportunity to acquire a big-salary player, and took it, before his team doctor found problems with Chandler's foot and reversed the trade. The Thunder have $19 million in cap space this summer. Who wants to bet Presti won't be on the phone with the agents for any number of elite big men on July 1? 雷霆隊總管Sam Presti放棄2009年的薪資空間去簽球員，他們有約九百萬美元的空間，但Presti沒有出手，他選擇讓隊上的年輕球員有更多的成長空間。﹝他用了大部分空間去吞下Matt Harpring的到期約幫助爵士規避六百五十萬美元的豪華稅，以便得到Eric Maynor。﹞ 但別忘了2009年二月Presti打算用到期約去換Tyson Chandler，Chandler的薪水高達 1170萬美元﹝2010-11為1260萬美元﹞將會讓雷霆在七月之前就超出薪資上限，當時 Durant二十歲，Westbrook二十歲，Green二十二歲，他們非常的年輕，而Presti很有耐心？要不是隊醫發現Chandler的腳有問題而取消交易，雷霆就會吃下Chandler的合約。雷霆今年暑假有一千九百萬美元的薪資空間，誰敢賭Presti七月一號不會打電話給各頂級長人的經紀人。 Advocates of patience would argue the Kings aren't at the same level as the Thunder, and that's obviously correct. The Kings won 25 games. The Thunder are tied with the defending champs in the first round. Following that pattern would leave the Kings looking for veteran additions no earlier than 2011. But the Kings may not have the opportunity to add much in 2011, depending on the league's labor dispute and the expected shrunken salary cap. The Kings have $30 million committed for 2011-12, and that doesn't cover Spencer Hawes, Carl Landry or the 2010 lotto pick (who will make $3-6 million that season). There's a very serious chance that if the Kings don't add long-term salary this offseason, they still wouldn't be able to in the two following seasons. This offseason (and the 2011 trade deadline) grants the team its largest opportunity to add a big-name player. If not now, there's a distinct possibility it will never happen. That isn't to say the team should necessarily bet the farm on one big player. You still have to make smart decisions, sign the right player who fits with the extant core (that'd be Evans and the lotto pick) well. (To that point, what happens May 18 and June 24 matter a ton.) This is not a call to offer Carlos Boozer $15 million, or David Lee $12 million. But the idea the Kings are better off sitting out July completely is all out of whack, based on blueprints falsified as myth. The Blazers and Thunder haven't gotten to the postseason by sitting on their hands, and the Kings can't do that either. (Note to readers from the future: if Hawes and Jason Thompson quickly morphed into Oden and Aldridge, or Omri Casspi turned into Peja Stojakovic circa 1999, or Donte Greene realized The Prophecy, ignore this post.) 當然有人會說國王和雷霆的情況不能相提並論，國王今年只有25勝，而雷霆目前在季後賽第一輪和去年冠軍打平，照這樣的說法來看國王的確不應該在今年急著撈魚。但國王2011年暑假的機會不會比今年更好，新的薪資規則正在協商中，一般預期薪資空間會被壓縮，國王2011-12的薪資總額約三千萬美元，但這不包含阿屁和藍錐的新合約以及當年樂透新秀的合約﹝約在三到六百萬之間﹞，今年暑假﹝一直到明年的交易截止日之前﹞可以說是國王釣大魚最好的機會，隨後兩年我們都不會再有這種機會，現在不做，以後可能都沒機會。當然不是說球隊一定要砸重金在頂級球員身上，球隊仍應該謹慎作決定，簽合適的球員來搭配我們的核心﹝Evans和今年的樂透球員，因此五月十八和六月二十四日非常重要﹞ ，沒有非要要國王花一千五百萬去簽Boozer或一千兩百萬去簽Lee，而是要球隊在七月來臨時，能夠去考慮各種選擇，拓荒者和雷霆都不是靠姜太公釣魚進季後賽的，而國王也不可能這樣做。 ﹝ps.如果阿屁和小湯能快速進化成Oden和Aldridge，卡卡能有Peja於1999年的成績，然後小綠照理想狀態成長，你就可以當我這篇文章在放屁。﹞ -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 118.167.177.228

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