[外電] 阿屁的防守

看板Kings (沙加緬度國王)作者kingpredrag (I love Man Utd!!!!!!!!!)時間15年前 (2010/05/15 19:53)推噓4(4推 0噓 0→)

留言4則, 4人參與討論串1/1

今天我們將來檢視屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁屁的防守 Share Grading Spencer Hawes's Defense 探討阿屁的防守 http://0rz.tw/OSNzb We looked at Jason Thompson earlier this week, and promised a detailed look at the defense of Spencer Hawes. If I may, for a moment: it's pretty unfair that these two are constantly compared and graded against each other, and I'm perhaps the world's most guilty part on the subject. Consider it a function of their adjacent arrivals, their subtle differences, their own imperfections, this team's thirst for a post-Webber/Divac pivot ... it's not just easy to place these two in a head-to-head battle for the hearts and minds of Sacramento. It's almost impossible not to. With that, the defense of Spencer Hawes ... 稍早我們討論過小湯的防守，該篇文章承諾接下來會討論阿屁的防守，其實在小湯之後直接討論阿屁並將兩人作比較很不公平，對此我感到罪孽深重。阿屁和小湯一前一後來到隊上，他們之間有微妙的不同，兩人皆有缺陷，而這支球隊卻仍渴望再現Webber -Divac的中軸線...，直接拿他門兩人作比較不論在理智或情感上都不是件易事，而且幾乎沒辦法比較。現在來談談阿屁的防守。 Hawes's defensive rating of 109 matched that of Thompson. But plus-minus data suggests Thompson was a boon for the team's defense, with the Kings 1.6 points per 100 possessions better on defense with J.T. on the floor than without. But the Kings were worse on defense with Hawes on the floor -- 1.16 pt/100p worse. This is all unadjusted for opponent strength and teammate strength, though given that each big man rotated between the bench and starting five and that they were both Kings all season, I'm less concerned about the lack of adjustment than I'd normally be. Certainly, it's conceivable Thompson is better for the team's defense than Hawes, and this data says that. But again, let's dive into Synergy's play-by-play data to see where Hawes has trouble. 阿屁和小湯的防守組合能排到聯盟第109名，但透過正負分差我們得知小湯是國王防守倚重的大將，他在場上相較於不在場時﹝100 次攻守統計平均下來﹞國王防守會少丟1.6分，但阿屁在場時，同樣是100次攻守數據平均，國王會多失1.16分，這些數據皆未因對手與隊友強度做調整，雖然本季隊上的長人在先發與替補之間來來去去，但他們都還是都穿著國王的制服，所以我並不是太在意這些數據調整與否。大家都知道小湯對球隊的防守貢獻比阿屁好，同時數據也顯示如此。現在我們將深入數據來探討阿屁到底哪裡出了錯。 Let's get it out of the way: he has trouble in one-on-one situations. In isolation, Hawes was really bad last year, giving up 0.96 points per possession. J.T. gave up 0.66 ppp. If you placed Thompson in isolation defense on 10 consecutive plays, based on last season's data, you'd expect the opponent to score 6-7 points. Put Hawes in the same situation and you'd expect 9-10 points. That's a huge difference, the gap between "excellent" and "awful." The post is no better. Thompson struggled to defend in the post, giving up 0.9 ppp, finishing middle-of-the-pack. Hawes was worse, giving up 0.97 ppp in 219 opportunities. Hawes allowed a higher shooting percentage for his opponents (.484 versus .468) and caused fewer turnovers. He did, however, foul less than J.T. Hawes did better in other situations -- he closed out on spot-up shooters much better than did J.T., allowing opponents to shoot .428 eFG versus a ridiculous .549 eFG for Thompson. Is that a function of J.T. more frequently guarding stretch fours while Hawes is chasing 7-footers who may not be as good at shooting? Perhaps. But that's still a huge gap, and it shows us Hawes is better at closing out on shooters than Thompson. 直接挑明的講，阿屁的一對一防守有問題，上季阿屁的一對一防守平均會失0.96分，小湯是0.66 ppp，連續一對一防守十次，小湯會讓對手得6-7分，但阿屁會丟9-10分，這差距非常大，是天與地的差別。防守背框進攻兩人都不好，小湯平均失0.9分，排在聯盟中段，阿屁更糟，219次防守機會下平均丟0.97分，且阿屁讓對手的命中率更高﹝0.484 vs 0.468﹞，製造對手失誤數更低，不過他的犯規數也比小湯少。但阿屁守跳投比小湯好很多，對手的eFG只0.428﹝小湯是0.549﹞，但也有可能因為小湯常去防守一到四號位的球員而阿屁負責守的通常是跳投不太準的七呎大個，不過兩者間的差距很大是不爭的事實，數據顯示阿屁守跳投比小湯好。 There's also the pick and roll, which Hawes defends rather well, with the roll man scored 0.8 ppp (versus 0.97 for J.T.). But each player had only minimal opportunities to defend the roll man on a possession-ending play, a combined 64 possessions. So it's hard to put too much stock in those numbers, though we can safely say the limited data is surprisingly positive for Hawes in that area. But in total, it's not good for Spencer. The data suggests Hawes is among the worst defenders in the league. Nearly half his defensive assignments last season came in the post, where he's below average. Another fifth of his plays came in isolation, where he's disastrous. He has shown promise in chasing shooters out to the perimeter and in defending the pick and roll -- two important elements of big man defense -- but there is so much work to be done it's hard to figure out where to even start. In the war no one wants, Thompson wins this battle. But Hawes is young and you can't teach size. So hope lives another day. 守擋拆進攻阿屁的表現也優於小湯，跟進球員在阿屁的防守下只有 0.8ppp﹝小湯為0.97ppp﹞，但兩者的樣本數都很小，防守跟進球員的機會兩者相加只有64次，參考性很低，我們只能說在這小樣本數據的情況下阿屁的表現令人驚艷。將各項數據綜合比較後非常不利於阿屁，資料顯示阿屁是聯盟中最糟的防守球員之一，上季阿屁將近一半的防守任務是負責背框防守 ﹝阿屁守背框的能力低於平均﹞，一對一防守的比重排在第五﹝這方面阿屁爛爆了﹞，阿屁防守外線跳投以及檔拆進攻的表現不錯，這兩方面是長人防守重要指標，但樣本數太小，從何處著手分析都很困難。這場沒有人樂見的手足相殘，本席宣判小湯獲勝，但阿屁還很年輕而且身高是敎不來的，所以繼續保持希望吧。 *** (There's no way for me to easily break down in-season progress, though I should note that beginning around early March the Kings defense began improving markedly, and it was noted at the time Hawes looked much better on defense. It's something worth looking into going forward.) ps.不能忽視球隊季中的進步，我指的是三月初左右球隊防守開始進步，那時起阿屁的防守進步很多，這是值得我們樂觀向前看的一件事。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 118.167.176.193